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High winds possible Friday and again Monday across the Carolinas

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
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I am concerned about some high winds Friday and Monday as two different storm systems have very strong low level wind fields, with 60 knot winds as low as 900 mb. I could see gusts to 50mph at least during the day Friday across all of NC.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/stormy-and-windy-conditions-possible-friday-and-monday

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eyewall

eyewall

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I am concerned about some high winds Friday and Monday as two different storm systems have very strong low level wind fields, with 60 knot winds as low as 900 mb. I could see gusts to 50mph at least during the day Friday across all of NC.

http://www.examiner....iday-and-monday

I was looking into this possibility too. We may also see one of those narrow convective rain bands that transport some strong winds to the surface ahead of the front.

As for winter weather potential your reasoning is sound and it certainly looks to be essentially over. I feel for those in the triangle and elsewhere who got the relative shaft this year.

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

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I was looking into this possibility too. We may also see one of those narrow convective rain bands that transport some strong winds to the surface ahead of the front.

As for winter weather potential your reasoning is sound and it certainly looks to be essentially over. I feel for those in the triangle and elsewhere who got the relative shaft this year.

Well we got a 7-8 incher for most of Wake County for the Christmas storm, and that was the first official 6+ incher at RDU airport since Feb 2004. That combined with the incredibly cold Dec/Jan period still made it a pretty good winter, considering the expectation that what we are seeing now was going to be the predominant pattern this winter. So I am not too disappointed. We didnt have much luck with the January storms but that is how it goes.

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eyewall

eyewall

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Well we got a 7-8 incher for most of Wake County for the Christmas storm, and that was the first official 6+ incher at RDU airport since Feb 2004. That combined with the incredibly cold Dec/Jan period still made it a pretty good winter, considering the expectation that what we are seeing now was going to be the predominant pattern this winter. So I am not too disappointed. We didnt have much luck with the January storms but that is how it goes.

That is a good point and I did exceptionally well this year in terms of winter weather (almost doubled last year's total IMBY). Anyway as for the wind potential there would obviously be a concern for additional fires with that in mind, especially if the rain totals are anemic.

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eyewall

eyewall

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The fire in Cumberland county in NC is still burning and only 40% contained. These winds could make a bad situation worse for sure. The people who started it as a controlled burn were obviously not the sharpest tools in the box with the Red Flag Warnings and the NWS warning of the risk for days on end.

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Analog96

Analog96

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The fire in Cumberland county in NC is still burning and only 40% contained. These winds could make a bad situation worse for sure. The people who started it as a controlled burn were obviously not the sharpest tools in the box with the Red Flag Warnings and the NWS warning of the risk for days on end.

The rain could take care of the fire before this happens, let's hope so.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

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I am concerned about some high winds Friday and Monday as two different storm systems have very strong low level wind fields, with 60 knot winds as low as 900 mb. I could see gusts to 50mph at least during the day Friday across all of NC.

http://www.examiner....iday-and-monday

I guess I'll have to watch Grandfather Mtn data again! They've had some serious wind up there this winter. They hit 94 mph just a few days ago, and 115 about a month ago.

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NCStateMMY

NCStateMMY

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We live in the Piedmont Leeside Desert, Jeremy. :(

Extend that area to the Coastal Plain as well. Drove from Tarboro to Wilmington on Monday and counted about 5 places along the way where there had been small brush fires. Coming back that evening, my friend and I could smell the tell-tale smell of smoke from a brush fire just south of Tarboro. Learned that aroma well during the summer of 08 during the Pocosin Lakes fire.

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eyewall

eyewall

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Both NAM and GFS show a bit of an inversion near the surface in central NC through 12z or so. This is also around when the strongest winds are shown as per model soundings at 925 mb or so. Obviously this scenario would prevent mixing them down to the surface for the most part (outside of heavier showers). Better momentum transport seems to be likely in the afternoon but at that point the max winds in the upper portion of the BL weaken somewhat. I would expect some 35-40 mph gusts but I would be hard pressed to go higher at this time. Often I have seen wind events in NC underperform as well.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Both NAM and GFS show a bit of an inversion near the surface in central NC through 12z or so. This is also around when the strongest winds are shown as per model soundings at 925 mb or so. Obviously this scenario would prevent mixing them down to the surface for the most part (outside of heavier showers). Better momentum transport seems to be likely in the afternoon but at that point the max winds in the upper portion of the BL weaken somewhat. I would expect some 35-40 mph gusts but I would be hard pressed to go higher at this time. Often I have seen wind events in NC underperform as well.

I haven't looked at anything along those lines yet but like Alan said this is the type of setup that can deliver high winds. Those are notoriously hard to forecast for, it seems we've had good wind events in the past when they weren't really forecast , and sometimes when they are forecast on the models, something like an inversion can prevent them from maxing out. The best I can remember (and I think it crossed most of GA, SC and NC) was in Jan. 2006, when a low level jet roared right down to the surface just ahead of a narrow squall line. I had sustained 3 hour winds of over 50mph and was just amazed at the event. Great weather event here...its probably a top 10 Wx. event here in my opinion in the last 20 years. I was worried about a couple of tall cedars directly in front of the house which were about to snap and land right over the house.

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eyewall

eyewall

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I haven't looked at anything along those lines yet but like Alan said this is the type of setup that can deliver high winds. Those are notoriously hard to forecast for, it seems we've had good wind events in the past when they weren't really forecast , and sometimes when they are forecast on the models, something like an inversion can prevent them from maxing out. The best I can remember (and I think it crossed most of GA, SC and NC) was in Jan. 2006, when a low level jet roared right down to the surface just ahead of a narrow squall line. I had sustained 3 hour winds of over 50mph and was just amazed at the event. Great weather event here...its probably a top 10 Wx. event here in my opinion in the last 20 years. I was worried about a couple of tall cedars directly in front of the house which were about to snap and land right over the house.

Yes they are hard to forecast without question but more often then not in central NC I have seen them underperform. Here is a notable exception (I was in raleigh at this time):

windgust.20090107.gif

I tried to get some of it on video but by the time I had access to the camera it was after dark.

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eyewall

eyewall

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A look at the 18z GFS soundings show no inversion by 8am and at 11am, there are 70 knot winds at 902mb and 50 knots as far down as 950mb.

Yeah this would be about the time for max winds in the BL if you took the GFS verbatim (note the nearly moist adiabatic profile here with the inversion gone):

GFS_3_2011022318_F45_35.5000N_79.0000W.png

I seemed to have overlooked this frame with 60 Knots in the 900's here.It does begin to weaken in the afternoon though. For some reason 51 hours is missing on twisterdata. Of course RDU itself is on a different grid space from this too. This is closer to SOP/FAY. Either way looks to be a narrow window for any warning criteria potential. It is interesting though and I will have my camera ready should it get a bit rough :).

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eyewall

eyewall

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RAH is not too excited and along the lines of what I was talking about last night:

WINDS NEAR 5000 FEET POTENTIALLY TO 70 TO 75 KNOTS MID MORNING

FRIDAY. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MOVING OFF THE CURRENT GUSTS FORECASTS

OF 35 TO 40 MPH. THE TIMING OF MID MORNING PASSAGE OF THE WINDS

SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THAT MOMENTUM ALOFT... AND BY NOON WINDS

UNDER 4000 FEET WILL BE UNDER 50 KNOTS. THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP THESE WINDS IN

DOWNDRAFTS. THE THREAT LOOKS ISOLATED GIVEN THE NEAR ZERO CAPE AND

LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO A MILD AIR MASS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

HOWEVER ISOLATED IS NOT ZERO... AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE

WILL END THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE

FORECAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL BE FORECAST DRY.

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kanc2001

kanc2001

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Yes they are hard to forecast without question but more often then not in central NC I have seen them underperform. Here is a notable exception (I was in raleigh at this time):

windgust.20090107.gif

I tried to get some of it on video but by the time I had access to the camera it was after dark.

remember that one rattling the house here, think we had a 54mph gust

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eyewall

eyewall

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They have issued a wind advisory so they are thinking not a big deal overall (not a warning event). It is tough to warning criteria winds in NC (outside the mountains) outside of tropical systems and convection. If the 925 mb winds were 60 knots plus well behind the front we would have a warning event for sure (CAA winds always easier to get to the surface). Either way it will be rather gusty out there.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

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We have been getting some pretty good winds mixing down at this end of the French Broad Valley tonight. Normally its the other end down by the airport. Some sustained at around 25 mph with gusts up to 35. At the tree line imby about 50 ft off the ground I would guess 40+. Trees have been creaking pretty good so far.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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We have been getting some pretty good winds mixing down at this end of the French Broad Valley tonight. Normally its the other end down by the airport. Some sustained at around 25 mph with gusts up to 35. At the tree line imby about 50 ft off the ground I would guess 40+. Trees have been creaking pretty good so far.

Just came back from the UNCA Basketball game 30 minutes ago...the wind was howling at the Eastern Continental Divide...

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Getting some gusts to 40 now but still an underwhelming wind event here. Give me some 50+ and we will talk :).

PGV has had one to 44mph and Bozarts weather station shows 46 as the peak so far there and he is maybe 10 miles from PGV so thats a pretty good indicator of the top end around here so far.

http://www.rafountain.com/raf_weather.html

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