tombo82685 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 rain has started here...42 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 TU drexel hill on the threads. on wind...imo this will be significantly worse between noon and 9 PM Friday...convective gusts of 50-60 knots appear realistic in the lines of remaining midday/aftn instability. everything i am seeing thru the 18z runs from tghe ec/gfs/nam says tstms with svr wind. then i think we will see a few minutes of nw gusts of 45 to 55 kts at many locations along and se of I95 between 4 pm and 7 P as the strong cold front pushes thru with asstd 10mb pres rises in 3 hrs and temps dropping 10-18 degs within an hr. presuming this expectation of convection and momentum transfer is correct...then it will be notably MUCH stronger than last saturday with resultant many trees and wires down with asstd power outages. the rest you can conjecture. this is based on hi wind composites/transfer programs/richardson numbers and internal mxg ht gust transfer tools. liklihood for convection between noon and 5P and I think PHL will have its strong cfp ard 5PM... am going to lower temps susbantially at 7 pm tomorrow. the warmer its is above MOS guidance during midday tomorrow the stronger the wind. wd Walt, you thinking this will be a true squall/convective line or scattered/broken line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 not sure if it will be a sq line or several short lines bowing... am not skilled at determining that outcome... upstream in tenn is an example of what should regen early aftn pa swd. if that happens... pretty substantial damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 not sure if it will be a sq line or several short lines bowing... am not skilled at determining that outcome... upstream in tenn is an example of what should regen early aftn pa swd. if that happens... pretty substantial damage. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 At least one positive thing is that there are no leaves on the trees. Therefore, we do not have the leaf canopy to act like a sail and put even more stress on the trees. However, the ground will be wetter with this wind event. The convective aspect of this event looks interesting. If the frontal forcing is real strong, a solid line of convection will probably form and tend to move faster than the cold front itself given the rather robust wind field. Given the shear forecast though, any squall line that is able to form may break into several segments and this is where the intense winds may be transferred down to the surface more efficiently (the convection will probably tend to lean, with height, down wind of the flow given the strong wind field). The mini line segments idea is similar to what was observed in radar data during the late night/early morning strong to severe squall line of November 16-17, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 For those that didn't see the Day 2 outlook. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW BROADLY CONFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...AND RATHER STRONG AND GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. IN PARTICULAR. WITHIN THIS REGIME A LARGE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION RAPIDLY ACCELERATES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ...APPALACHIANS INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD... SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM 70 TO 90 KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED MID/UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAKENING PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FIRST AROUND MIDDAY...THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL BAND MAY ALLOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN/ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION. IT IS NOT EVEN CLEAR THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BE MUCH ABOVE THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A THUNDER OUTLOOK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CAPABLE OF CONTRIBUTING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE GUSTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGING SPEEDS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE...SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW SLIGHT RISK LEVELS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BUT...THE THREAT AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ..KERR.. 02/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Rain started here around 7 p.m. no wind, but the Power has been out for over an hour already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Looks as that squall line might be a little early today. Let's see if it holds up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 .85" so far in Martins Creek Northampton County (7 mi. N of Easton) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 OBS: It's raining. Analysis: It's boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I am unsure of thunderstorms this afternoon, they are still indicating storms this afternoon, I am prepaired camera wise today. So if anything does form I will be ready to film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I am unsure of thunderstorms this afternoon, they are still indicating storms this afternoon, I am prepaired camera wise today. So if anything does form I will be ready to film. There may be convective elements, however there may end up being little to no lightning. Plenty of wind not that far above the surface, but we will have to see regarding any instability. Temperatures and dew points however increasing quite a bit now across central/southern Delaware toward far southern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 47.1°/46 0.01" on the day so far. that doesn't seem right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 There may be convective elements, however there may end up being little to no lightning. Plenty of wind not that far above the surface, but we will have to see regarding any instability. Temperatures and dew points however increasing quite a bit now across central/southern Delaware toward far southern New Jersey. Thank you Mike. This year i am gonna try my best on not freaking or flipping out, people gotta bare with me as things go on. Cant help my passion that can litterally take over my emotions and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Through 6:00am - 0.57" glad I left for work early this morning, missed the incoming monsoon, stretch of RT 1 through Trenton is a trainwreck when it pours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0.57" storm total rainfall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 OBS: It's raining. Analysis: It's boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The 00z SPC WRF has a broken convective line moving through later this afternoon (as does the HRRR). So far though, the SPC WRF is a few hours to slow with the rain currently moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 47.1°/46 0.01" on the day so far. that doesn't seem right... Your rain gage clogged or something? That amount is definitely to low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Very abrupt appearance of fog in the Franklin Township area of Somerset - within the past few minutes. It's not heavy, but to have it suddenly appear during a rainstorm is interesting. Warm air I suppose? Ground is still frozen under an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 35.4 in NW Chester county this morning. .64" of rain so far. Glacier in yard down to 6" this morning and shrinking pretty quickly. Areas of dense fog where snow remains. Temps been holding at 34/35 all night here in valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Very abrupt appearance of fog in the Franklin Township area of Somerset - within the past few minutes. It's not heavy, but to have it suddenly appear during a rainstorm is interesting. Warm air I suppose? Ground is still frozen under an inch or so. Yeah, the warmer and more moist air coming north over the lingering cooler air right at the surface is allowing for some fog to develop. FYI...SPC has now put a good part of the area in a slight risk in their updated day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 About 1.02" here for the event so far per the USGS gauge near my house. Looks like perhaps a dry slot later this morning/afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 While I gear up for possible severe weather later today, I checked out the New York State Thruway camera at the Rochester, NY exit. This is what I saw just a few minutes ago, and just wanted to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 While I gear up for possible severe weather later today, I checked out the New York State Thruway camera at the Rochester, NY exit. This is what I saw just a few minutes ago... Wow, this is one time I'm glad we're not getting that here. I have to be in Hazleton at 3:00PM to photograph a wedding. It would have been a disaster for the bride and groom if I couldn't get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT /I.E. 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-200 M PER 12-HR/ WILL OVERSPREAD REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER NRN WV AS OF 12Z WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH SRN/CNTRL PA THIS MORNING TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ACCORDINGLY SURGE EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AND OFFSHORE BY EVENING. A VERY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /50-70 KT AT AROUND 1 KM AGL/ HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WHICH HAS HASTENED THE NWD TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM/WEDGE FRONT. WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MANIFEST WITHIN THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...BY 17-19Z LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 25/00Z 4-KM ARW/NMM AND SEVERAL OF THE MORE RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF SERN PA/NJ SWD THROUGH PARTS OF ERN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD AND DE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR EVIDENT IN 12Z OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. ..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 02/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah, the warmer and more moist air coming north over the lingering cooler air right at the surface is allowing for some fog to develop. FYI...SPC has now put a good part of the area in a slight risk in their updated day 1 outlook. Already having power issues around here, and haven't hardly seen any wind yet. Had 2 activated CO2 alarms, within 5 minutes of each other, on the same street, due to the power outage. Not a good sign for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Already having power issues around here, and haven't hardly seen any wind yet. Had 2 activated CO2 alarms, within 5 minutes of each other, on the same street, due to the power outage. Not a good sign for later. Interesting, although did see that ACY had a peak gust to 40 mph about an hour ago. We continue to toss out some SPS's to cover the increasing gusty southerly wind this morning. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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