am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Let's put all of the 2/25 discussion here since we're within two days of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0% chance until new runs : would love to see poconos get some.. i need an elk powder day! rain will suck for ski areas... some may not survive by late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm not forecasting any snow for anybody in the region at this time, but if the models were going to trend in any direction, they would trend south, imo. It's really a question if the ridge can move east quicker than currently progged. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm not forecasting any snow for anybody in the region at this time, but if the models were going to trend in any direction, they would trend south, imo. It's really a question if the ridge can move east quicker than currently progged. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. adam leaves the door open just a tiny bit ... i'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah, you know me...but I'm not even excited about this one from where I stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm not forecasting any snow for anybody in the region at this time, but if the models were going to trend in any direction, they would trend south, imo. It's really a question if the ridge can move east quicker than currently progged. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. I can see a NAM style track playing out where the low runs along/just south of Blue Mountain....50's south of that, 30's and icy rain in the Poconos? I'm not really gung ho on the snow potential at least in Philly proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Current Wxsim program shows a total of 3.84" of rain between the 2 events. It indicates a brief period of IP at the very start tomorrow late day but then just plain rain and plenty of it. With storm #1 (2.39") with storm #2 on Sunday late (1.45") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Current Wxsim program shows a total of 3.84" of rain between the 2 events. It indicates a brief period of IP at the very start tomorrow late day but then just plain rain and plenty of it. With storm #1 (2.39") with storm #2 on Sunday late (1.45") I have been told there is a chance of thunderstorms overnight Thursday into early Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man...that would be a lot of snow if things were to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Drenching rain storm continues on the 12z NAM, only difference is that its maybe a tad quicker. Should completely disolve the snowpack where it exists and cause some river rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Drenching rain storm continues on the 12z NAM, only difference is that its maybe a tad quicker. Should completely disolve the snowpack where it exists and cause some river rises. wouldn't be surprised if almost all of it is gone (at least from Philly south) by tomorrow. 40-42 today, mid 40's tomorrow plus full sun today will do a number on the snow. The rain could be a bigger flooding issue than snow melt itself since there isn't a ton of water content in the snow (1/2" or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man...that would be a lot of snow if things were to work out. During the height of the storm the 850 freezing line runs on a line from about the MA/VT border southwest through about Mansfield, PA to about the northern tip of VA. No chance of snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 wouldn't be surprised if almost all of it is gone (at least from Philly south) by tomorrow. 40-42 today, mid 40's tomorrow plus full sun today will do a number on the snow. The rain could be a bigger flooding issue than snow melt itself since there isn't a ton of water content in the snow (1/2" or so). well up in my neck of the woods, we got 6-8" in most spots from the first system and nothing with the second system. Most spots still had a few inches on the ground even after the warm temps although the 30"+ snowpack from early February has taken a severe hit. We also still have quite a few large piles from where everything was plowed. I don't think flooding will be an issue with this except very localized but the cutter in a few days may cause some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ground is saturated in many areas so 1-3" rain could cause flooding for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm not forecasting any snow for anybody in the region at this time, but if the models were going to trend in any direction, they would trend south, imo. It's really a question if the ridge can move east quicker than currently progged. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. GFS has been trending north for the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ^^^ good thread name. Anyone have any thoughts on the poconos? Trip with friends this week and plan on boarding, just pessimistic about rain ruining the trails. Any insight would be appreciated. I'm not too familiar with elevation and climatology up there this time of year. (mt. Pocono area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This looks like an all-rain event for the Philly area, perhaps beginning and/or ending with a bit of wintry precip in the Lehigh Valley. I got a nice present from Mother Nature last year on my birthday (2/25) with ~10 inches of snow from the 2/25-2/26 storm. I figure I'm due for a rainer this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This looks like an all-rain event for the Philly area, perhaps beginning and/or ending with a bit of wintry precip in the Lehigh Valley. I got a nice present from Mother Nature last year on my birthday (2/25) with ~10 inches of snow from the 2/25-2/26 storm. I figure I'm due for a rainer this year. Yeah this year I shall not have any snow on the ground or falling for or on my birthday next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man...that would be a lot of snow if things were to work out. LOL! Like that's going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 someone should change this thread title to 2/25 flood/hvy rain potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea I was thinking the same thing. This threat I think is dead at least for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea I was thinking the same thing. This threat I think is dead at least for wintry weather. lots of rain and kinda warm. Great...get rid of the remaining snow and lets get into spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS has been trending north for the last 24 hours. Yeah, I meant where the consensus of models was at 0z Euro/0z UKM/0z CMC/6z GFS, which were pretty tightly clustered. Sorry for not being more clear. I've been so busy doing other stuff, I assume everything held serve at 12z, since the thread barely moved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i can definitely see flash flood watches being hoisted. According to this map, 1-2 inches will do it for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i can definitely see flash flood watches being hoisted. According to this map, 1-2 inches will do it for this area Ugh I am in the 3-4 inch area. D@mn wish that was snow!! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ugh I am in the 3-4 inch area. D@mn wish that was snow!! LOL. That's flash flood guidance, not forecast QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 can't wait till my car gets rained on and gets the salt off + free undercarriage wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 can't wait till my car gets rained on and gets the salt off + free undercarriage wash I was loling at the ppl leaving the car wash by my house yesterday...better to just wait 48 hours and let Ma Nature do it for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 High Wind Watch now. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 431 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-242100- /O.CON.KPHI.HW.A.0002.110225T1500Z-110226T0300Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 431 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE MOUNT HOLLY FORECAST AREA. * HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS... WHICH MAY KNOCK DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AS WELL AS WEAKER TREES AND POWER LINES. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS COULD TAKE DOWN POWER LINES AS WELL AS DAMAGE VEHICLES PARKED UNDER THEM. WINDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DRIVE HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ ROBERTSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 With this High Watch unlike the last Saturday High Wind Event, we could be having a crap load of tree's coming down, as we have Rain becoming involved so making the ground wet and with a wet ground and high winds will equate to loads of down trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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