prinsburg_wx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Sorta reminds me of our first snow event, where the NAM was hinting at a nice band of 10+ for a couple days straight, if we can get some consistency that would be nice..I see last nights 00z Euro moved its track back to the west, It will be interesting to see where it is today. Meanwhile I will enjoy my 40 degrees for now and watch my snow melt SKOL VIKINGS! (even though we are now the laughing stock of the NFL) w mn got screwed including my area from that 1st event so maybe that area will cash in this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 18z NAM looks much quicker than the 12z NAM, which brings it more in line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 MPX has issued the 1st winter storm watch of the season in my area. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. * OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING. we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 IWX in afternoon hydrologic outlook is talking about t storms with 1-2 inch rains for much of north/ne IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This storm is a good case of a rather unimpressive looking upper level baroclinic wave, but the low level baroclinic zone is much more impressive. From an IPV thinking standpoint, a large amount of low level cyclogenesis...and now that the models are deepening the upper low as well later in the forecast period over MN, it seems all guidance are hitting on a much stronger storm. Also favorable is the signficant tilt with the mid level low...with the 700 hpa low displaced well west of the surface low in the cold air. I think western and parts of central MN will see some pretty respectable snow. Watch out though, in my experience these types of systems can end up farther W than initially simulated by the models. Given the models keep trending stronger, it is possible this shifts a tad W with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 00z NAM hits MSP pretty hard. At hour 36, 1000 MB LOW in WI with .25 QPF in E. MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The 21Z SREF is in, doesn't seem much different than the 15Z SREF. The 0Z NAM seems displaced too far E and is a huge shift change from previous runs. I am not bothering with it yet. Look like the NWS is going strongly SREF based on their Storm Watch placement. 15Z SREF: 21Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Pretty sweet conditions in Rapid City this morning...heavy snow and a 50MPH gust at last ob. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Pretty sweet conditions in Rapid City this morning...heavy snow and a 50MPH gust at last ob. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA That is pretty sweet although 50 mph winds are pretty run of the mill at RCA/RAP due to their optimal geographic/topographic location with drainage winds off the Great Basin. That said, looks like a lovely day at Deadwood and Rapid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That is pretty sweet although 50 mph winds are pretty run of the mill at RCA/RAP due to their optimal geographic/topographic location with drainage winds off the Great Basin. That said, looks like a lovely day at Deadwood and Rapid. Good point about RAP and the winds. And the webcam photo of Deadwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Good point about RAP and the winds. And the webcam photo of Deadwood. I agree, I wouldn't mind being there right now. I love the Black Hills too! Really neat area. One of the hardest terrain regions to forecast for both because the somewhat small size and the orientation of the terrain NW-SE. Whether the large scale flow is blocked by the terrain or simply flows around it (in stable NW flow) is very difficult to forecast. I remember a storm a couple years ago that dropped 3-4 feet of snow at Lead and an inch or so at Custer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Man, Rapid City and the surrounding areas would be a very cool place to live. They see all phases of weather there, with wild swings in conditions over short periods of time. Precip is really exploding in the warm sector from Arkansas to Iowa. The rain over southern Minnesota is beginning to take off as well. This will likely rotate northwestward into the colder air and transform into an area of enhanced snowfall later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Ah, an article from CIMSS relating to that event. That was a spectacular storm in both intensity and duration. Just watch that WV loop. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/651 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Good point about RAP and the winds. And the webcam photo of Deadwood. Here's a live cam shot in Deadwood http://www.deadwood.org/VideoGallery/WebCams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Here's a live cam shot in Deadwood http://www.deadwood....allery/WebCams/ Thanks. I could watch that all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'm getting a report , through GRL3 and Allisonhouse , of a 13.5 inch estimated snowfall depth, 2 miles Northeast of Deadwood.. This report is from an off duty NWS employee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'm still new to this forum, but where can I find the thread for the weekend storm? Since all of these threads are named differently, not stating the exact dates of storms and such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'm still new to this forum, but where can I find the thread for the weekend storm? Since all of these threads are named differently, not stating the exact dates of storms and such... We have not started one yet. The general disco thread for December is it for now. We are not wanting to jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 We have not started one yet. The general disco thread for December is it for now. We are not wanting to jinx it. LOL, I see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 1120 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 SW DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH 44.40N 103.96W 11/29/2010 E24.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 recieved 4.0" so far with the narrow band of moderate snow still hanging around this area so maybe a couple more then the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm still new to this forum, but where can I find the thread for the weekend storm? Since all of these threads are named differently, not stating the exact dates of storms and such... Welcome! Where are you located? http://www.americanw...wgl-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 0741 AM SNOW MORGAN 44.42N 94.92W 11/30/2010 M10.0 INCH REDWOOD MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0709 AM HEAVY SNOW SAGINAW 46.86N 92.44W 11/30/2010 M8.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0615 AM HEAVY SNOW CHISHOLM 47.49N 92.88W 11/30/2010 M6.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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