The_Global_Warmer Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Lots of Rain again, the location can and will change. Pretty Cold,also there is some energy coming down with this one, someone might see some high ratio very low QPF snow events. Heating Bills will be going up up up up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 The NAM below is wetter west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Evolution of this system is going to be very tricky as the trough's energy is ejected in three distinct jet streaks and shortwaves. The first lifts a weakening low from Ern Co into the Upper Midwest, while the second develops a weak low across OK/Ne Tx and lifts it north-northeast into IL/Lower GL region, and finally the biggest wave at the base of the trough, which may be able to develop another wave on this already slow moving front. IMO, the final wave is the wild card on any frozen/freezing precip, while the first two are bigger rain-makers for the drought area than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Evolution of this system is going to be very tricky as the trough's energy is ejected in three distinct jet streaks and shortwaves. The first lifts a weakening low from Ern Co into the Upper Midwest, while the second develops a weak low across OK/Ne Tx and lifts it north-northeast into IL/Lower GL region, and finally the biggest wave at the base of the trough, which may be able to develop another wave on this already slow moving front. IMO, the final wave is the wild card on any frozen/freezing precip, while the first two are bigger rain-makers for the drought area than anything else. Yeah, that was my thinking a few days ago. Glad to see it's endorsed by a met. It's been tough to get the EURO/GFS to get that 3rd wave east of the Apps but we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 CSN, where do you think that final low may go? Would this be near the OV area, or perhaps farther to the west in the great lakes? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 CSN, where do you think that final low may go? Would this be near the OV area, or perhaps farther to the west in the great lakes? Thanks. It will depend on where the front is when that 3rd wave comes out as the base of the trof and if and when it rides up along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 CSN, where do you think that final low may go? Would this be near the OV area, or perhaps farther to the west in the great lakes? Thanks. I think the best chance is for this whole system to look like a disjointed piece of crap, to put it lightly. The GEM/EC look a little too smoothed/glossed over and keep the first low as the dominant force when the dominant WAA, DPVA, and rich moisture flux on their own progs are clearly much further south after the initial burst of lee side cyclogenesis. And the last wave has a better chance of cutting towards the OV. The parent longwave is a bit too progressive for it to cut straight to the lakes, unless it were to slow down. The wave is about to come onshore in the next 24 hours, during which I expect to see some musical chairs type shuffling with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 Looks like the 00z nam has this feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Models are showing pretty good consistency in dropping 1" or greater precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 I think this system will be very similar to the last system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 0Z ggem/euro/ukie & somewhat the gfs looking like atleast an advisory type event for most of MN mon/tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 GFS and NAM both showing at least .2 QPF of all snow in WI for Tuesday. Could be at least a couple inches somewhere. LOW goes right through southern/central WI and then some QPF in the cold sector once it gets a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 GFS and NAM both showing at least .2 QPF of all snow in WI for Tuesday. Could be at least a couple inches somewhere. LOW goes right through southern/central WI and then some QPF in the cold sector once it gets a bit stronger. This is starting to look like a solid little event, only 72 hours out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Hopefully the models continue to show it. I have no idea what the GGEM/UKIE/Euro show though. I would be ok with a 2-4 inch event to start out. Then it looks like another decent storm on Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Hopefully the models continue to show it. I have no idea what the GGEM/UKIE/Euro show though. I would be ok with a 2-4 inch event to start out. Then it looks like another decent storm on Friday/Saturday. here's 12Z 72hr ukie/ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 UKIE and GGEM would be all rain here right? Hard to tell on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Monday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 34. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming south 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Gotta start somewhere right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 DVN categorizes this storm as non-linear whatever that means. In their AFD they mention the models are still trying to play catchup with this thing. All models have been slowly trending towards a stronger secondary wave Monday night and Tuesday, which really deepens the surface low over Wisconsin Tue. If models continue this trend there could conceivably be an area of respectable snows in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 18z GFS and NAM said what snows? Hardly any QPF in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Might need to start a severe weather threat, with some isolated severe weather possible, if it increases a thread may be needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Might need to start a severe weather threat, with some isolated severe weather possible, if it increases a thread may be needed The limiting factor this go around is long fetch Gulf moisture, IMO. While not out of the question for a pop up severe threat, it appears marginal at best. Edit to add that E of the Mississippi may have a better chance this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I haven't been following this system from model run to model run, but it looks like the 12z NAM has developed more cold sector precip with this run...in particular places like NC Iowa, MSP, etc look pretty good for a nice hit of snow...of course assuming the NAM has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Upon a little further inspection, NAM looks like about 5-9", rough estimate, for MSP. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Upon a little further inspection, NAM looks like about 5-9", rough estimate, for MSP. Nice. MPX's thoughts. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Western MN could get dumped on. Wish it would shift a little east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yeah the NAM has really beefed up snow prospects in the cold sector. The swath of heaviest snow looks like it's very similarly placed to the event a few weeks ago. Congrats Emmetsburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The GFS and RGEM are quicker with the evolution of the storm compared to the NAM. This has huge implications for western Iowa and southern Minnesota. The quicker solutions drop very little snow over these areas, whereas the NAM paints 3-6"+. You want to believe the GFS and the RGEM, since they make the NAM the outlier among the short range models. Also, the Euro seems a little quicker as well. However, the NAM may be on to something here. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The GFS and GEM both rotate areas of snow showers through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon and night. May be enough for a light dusting in some areas. I'm actually pretty excited for this, as much of this area has yet to see a flake this season. Even here we only had about a 30 second shower of snow pellets and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yeah, cyclone, I have not seen one flurry this season. It does appear there is a decent shot at a few with this system Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The GFS and RGEM are quicker with the evolution of the storm compared to the NAM. This has huge implications for western Iowa and southern Minnesota. The quicker solutions drop very little snow over these areas, whereas the NAM paints 3-6"+. You want to believe the GFS and the RGEM, since they make the NAM the outlier among the short range models. Also, the Euro seems a little quicker as well. However, the NAM may be on to something here. Going to be fun to watch. Sorta reminds me of our first snow event, where the NAM was hinting at a nice band of 10+ for a couple days straight, if we can get some consistency that would be nice..I see last nights 00z Euro moved its track back to the west, It will be interesting to see where it is today. Meanwhile I will enjoy my 40 degrees for now and watch my snow melt SKOL VIKINGS! (even though we are now the laughing stock of the NFL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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