NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sadly, I must admit, its over for good now. No Kocin event. I don't agree - there will be a Kocin event or very close to it someplace along the east coast by mid month - all the signals are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't agree - there will be a Kocin event or very close to it someplace along the east coast by mid month - all the signals are falling in place.... Someone should change the thread title from Chris L to NEG NAO calling for a KU midmonth Of course, then people would think we're getting severe blocking in that time frame haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't agree - there will be a Kocin event or very close to it someplace along the east coast by mid month - all the signals are there I hope you are right, because the ECMWF is very dishearting to see lack of ridging in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Someone should change the thread title from Chris L to NEG NAO calling for a KU midmonth Of course, then people would think we're getting severe blocking in that time frame haha. Notice I said some where along the east coast with Northern Mid Atlantic - New England being favored right now ...MJO - NAO -AO - Stratosphere temps all coming together ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The only caution I would advise is that I have noticed that some runs of various models are hinting at some periods where strong Canadian high's pop over SE Canada allowing for large confluence under the PV. With this setup you need to be cautious because so long as the pattern out west is at least flat (meaning no trough) it is possible instead of the LP cutting that it is forced underneath the confluence. These types of setups can bring some snows for the northern Mid Atlantic and SNE. An example would be this past Monday (Feb 21). Otherwise yes I agree it looks unfavorable for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sadly, I must admit, its over for good now. No Kocin event. who hacked Chrs L's account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 who hacked Chrs L's account? Well, if you looked at the March temp contest in the main forum, the obvious answer would be Ace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Well, if you looked at the March temp contest in the main forum, the obvious answer would be Ace I am pretty sure that we wont have to deal with any real winter until next december, yeah maybe a snow event or a cold outbreak but this baby is toast..lets hope the spring isnt cold and wet... when was the last time March was wintry? Was this winter a lot like 1960-61? WHY THE EFF AM I STILL ON A LIMIT???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Euro definitely involving a lot more of the northern stream on today's 12z run for the day 7-8 system. The high in the Atlantic is killing us but it's still 8 days out and lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 euro definately trended towards the gfs' idea of a strong wave on the front instead of the euro's cutoff situation gotta get the northern stream through so the front can clear and then bring the wave up. strong vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Someone should change the thread title from Chris L to NEG NAO calling for a KU midmonth Of course, then people would think we're getting severe blocking in that time frame haha. How do you do that? I'll try to change it if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I am pretty sure that we wont have to deal with any real winter until next december, yeah maybe a snow event or a cold outbreak but this baby is toast..lets hope the spring isnt cold and wet... when was the last time March was wintry? Was this winter a lot like 1960-61? WHY THE EFF AM I STILL ON A LIMIT???? Heh-- I can't answer the last question-- but the question when was the last time March was wintry depends on your definition of wintry. You could say it was March 2009-- but that was only for the first day or two of the month. Or you could say March 2007 -- but that was a sleet storm on St. Patty's day. Or you could say March 2004 and 2005 -- but those were much better east of us than they were here or in NYC. You could say the March-April 2003 period because that was the last time we got a bonafide snowstorm after March 1 (and it was in April too.) But if you want bonafide multiple snowstorms and long stretches of cold you have to go all the way back to March-April 1996. And that was a weak la nina (and matched what happened in 1967).... which makes you wonder how great this winter could have been if the la nina had stayed weak. But we seem to be in an era of extreme enso Yes, the two best matches to this winter are 1947-48 and 1960-61 in terms of snowfall patterns and snow cover. If we get a moderate snow in March, 1947-48 will be a better match. Based on what happened that season, we should probably get another 4-6 inches of snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 How do you do that? I'll try to change it if I can. Thanks. What you have to do is edit your first post. When you get into the editor, you have to select the full edit button and then it lets you change the thread header/subheader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Thanks. What you have to do is edit your first post. When you get into the editor, you have to select the full edit button and then it lets you change the thread header/subheader. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Done lol if this was the SNE subforum I would have said change it to "weenies limp to the finish line or never finish at all" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol if this was the SNE subforum I would have said change it to "weenies limp to the finish line or never finish at all" haha. I tried my best lol Heres to Chris L changing his opinion again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I tried my best lol Heres to Chris L changing his opinion again Yeah keep that editor handy, as soon as the models change their output, Chris will change his mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah keep that editor handy, as soon as the models change their output, Chris will change his mind Took the words right out of my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah keep that editor handy, as soon as the models change their output, Chris will change his mind Should read "as soon as EURO changes it's output". Lots of people here, only base their forecasts off euro. At least today's euro went majorly toward GFS now as the Trials pointed out. At least gives us a small chance now with a couple more things that need to go right. All other previous euro runs that had a southern cut-off low gave us zero chance at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 lost alot of respect for him over the past couple weeks. his posts on some of the other topics have been really ignorant. and frankly, i dont pay attention to ignorant personalities. this is only because he isnt on the snowstorm train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 DGEX from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Just Updated DGEX 18Z - still shows rain to snow http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06180.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgexpmsl10mwinds2mtemps180.gif and snowfall - a few inches nyc - just find it on the left http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/etapll8day.conus/#TAB3a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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