RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 best part about it the pattern is getting more pronounced with each run instead of backing off suspect some of it has to do with the wavelengths beginning to change as well good point. ridging out west is getting better too. something big can deff pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 good point. ridging out west is getting better too. something big can deff pop. The PNA rises some around March 1st, but unfortunately we know that storm is going to cut. GFS ENS show it going negative again, perhaps not as severe/unfavorable as currently, but not great...here is CPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I don't want to wait till may. People here in the city aren't lookin too good after a good 3 months of cold. This made me Lol. Today was nice as far as temperature goes. This isn't Minneapolis, who wants cold/snow well into April? (I know a lot of people do but I'm just saying lol) Also am I the only one who saw buds on trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This is it guys. The last storm of the season (in my opinion atleast) is brewing for us somewhere in the Pacific ocean for sometime in the dates listed above, specifically March 6th. Teleconnections are not perfect but they are duable, and I think there is a higher chance than not another winter storm will occur. 0z GFS tonight started to hint at the return of blocking for the Eatsern half of the US and a -EPO. The EURO does look a little wierd with this storm... I think this is a good explanation that shows why the EURO is wrong with the storm(s) in March:<br style="min-width: 0px; "><br style="min-width: 0px; ">"One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place. The m...odel also seems to have a warm bias when it comes to forecasting mid-level and upper-level tropospheric heights, and the resulting thickness calculations. The model also has a tendency to “bomb-out” extratropical cyclones along the east coast of the United States too prematurely."<br style="min-width: 0px; "><br style="min-width: 0px; ">-PSU EWALL The NAO Take a look at what I circled (numbers 1 and 2). Those are the time periods when we had 2 of our major winter storms this year (The post-Christmas blizzard and the incredible Thundersnow snowstorm in January). Notice the NAO was negative during those times, which is an ingredient that indicates a good chance of seeing a snowstorm. Notice how its now positive and we are seeing 2 GLC within 5 days, bringing us heavy rains and milder temps. Well thats because of the positive state of the NAO, BUT starting March 1st it looks to be going down into a negative/nuetral state, which is NOT perfect for a snowstorm but definetely better than positive. The AO The AO is spiking right now, which is why on Monday we will see temps in the low 60's. You can see its been more positive than negative lately which is why our temps have moderated here in the month of February. Looking back into December/January it was negaitve much of the time (remember when it hit its all-time low?). It is showing signs of going back down to negative the first week of March, which means cold air will try and re-unite with our neck of the woods again. So far...-NAO + -AO = 40% Chance of Snowstorm. The PNA Just like the NAO forecasting chart, I outlined the time period when we had our 2 most significant snowstorms of this winter season. Do not get the PNA confused with the AO and NAO, because those 2 require negative states but we want the PNA in a POSITIVE state to have our best chance of a snowstorm. Judging by all the rain we are about to get and our snow drought, you can tell the PNA is negative now and is going to stay negative until March 3rd-7th where it tries to get out of its negative stage. Right now, it looks like the PNA will stay slightly negative to nuetral around the 6th of March. This is the only thing that concerns me from getting a classic snowstorm here in the Northeast, but we will see how the models start playing it out. Speaking of the models... 12z GFS This is 12z GFS run from 2 days ago (I made this blog 2 days ago for another weather forum). This is almost the perfect setup with a High to our Northwest AND Northeast to act as a block. You can see that a ridge develops on the eastern half of the country and this is also key to getting a snowstorm, because we want our low to dig South and than shoot up the coast. We want that low in the Pacific Northwest to move further East to sharpen our ridge, and make it less zonal (flat) of a troughiness. So after these two rainstorms, we will definetely need to shift our focus for the first week of March. I think this will be our last Hoorah because lets face it, as we mow down the days on the calendar the days get longer and the nights get shorter. Yesterday I felt the suns strong rays refelcting off my snowpack, and yes the sun is "stronger" as we head into March. If we want 1 last storm its better now than late. Overall, this winter has done us well. If it wasnt for our blocking pattern in the first 2 Meteorological winter months than we would have endured a mild/rainy winter like we are seeing in the next 5 days. But I say mark your calendars, March 4th-10th will bring us one last Nor'easter that will try and break NYC's snowfall record and further add to the already remarkable snowfall totals around the Mid-atlantic and Northeast. Hope you enjoyed the read, will look forward to posting on this forum this is not written by me but by somebody from http://tristateweather.yuku.com/topic/27301/Winter-s-Last-Hoorah-Possible-March-6th-9th very good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12Z GFS is a little different with the 3/1 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 00z gfs maintains the cold and blocky over canada after 192......plenty of storm chances too Good thing that its the 0z run, and not just the 6z or 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The PNA rises some around March 1st, but unfortunately we know that storm is going to cut. GFS ENS show it going negative again, perhaps not as severe/unfavorable as currently, but not great...here is CPC: Nate, are you on board for a snowy/cold March 5-15 period to close out winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 best part about it the pattern is getting more pronounced with each run instead of backing off suspect some of it has to do with the wavelengths beginning to change as well and the weakening la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 quite the foot race on the 12z gfs between the arctic air and a intense vort in the deep south before the GFS truncates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12Z GFS is a little different with the 3/1 storm yea it looks like it breaks off a wave from the rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 18Z NAM, similar to yesterday in terms of storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 That is for the 3/1 storm obviously. It takes a 996 LP just NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 plenty of rh where the cold air is, wonder what the next frame looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What in gods name is the euro cooking up in the long range. At 168 there is a cutoff low over Dallas , but after that the northern stream misses and the cutoff low meanders off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What in gods name is the euro cooking up in the long range. At 168 there is a cutoff low over Dallas , but after that the northern stream misses and the cutoff low meanders off the SE coast Worlds apart from GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Worlds apart from GFS. Both models just look weird - have to remember the models start having difficulties especially in the medium and long range during the change of seasons... which starts 3/1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This is it guys. The last storm of the season (in my opinion atleast) is brewing for us somewhere in the Pacific ocean for sometime in the dates listed above, specifically March 6th. Teleconnections are not perfect but they are duable, and I think there is a higher chance than not another winter storm will occur. 0z GFS tonight started to hint at the return of blocking for the Eatsern half of the US and a -EPO. The EURO does look a little wierd with this storm... I think this is a good explanation that shows why the EURO is wrong with the storm(s) in March:<br style="min-width: 0px; "><br style="min-width: 0px; ">"One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place. The m...odel also seems to have a warm bias when it comes to forecasting mid-level and upper-level tropospheric heights, and the resulting thickness calculations. The model also has a tendency to “bomb-out” extratropical cyclones along the east coast of the United States too prematurely."<br style="min-width: 0px; "><br style="min-width: 0px; ">-PSU EWALL The NAO Take a look at what I circled (numbers 1 and 2). Those are the time periods when we had 2 of our major winter storms this year (The post-Christmas blizzard and the incredible Thundersnow snowstorm in January). Notice the NAO was negative during those times, which is an ingredient that indicates a good chance of seeing a snowstorm. Notice how its now positive and we are seeing 2 GLC within 5 days, bringing us heavy rains and milder temps. Well thats because of the positive state of the NAO, BUT starting March 1st it looks to be going down into a negative/nuetral state, which is NOT perfect for a snowstorm but definetely better than positive. The AO The AO is spiking right now, which is why on Monday we will see temps in the low 60's. You can see its been more positive than negative lately which is why our temps have moderated here in the month of February. Looking back into December/January it was negaitve much of the time (remember when it hit its all-time low?). It is showing signs of going back down to negative the first week of March, which means cold air will try and re-unite with our neck of the woods again. So far...-NAO + -AO = 40% Chance of Snowstorm. The PNA Just like the NAO forecasting chart, I outlined the time period when we had our 2 most significant snowstorms of this winter season. Do not get the PNA confused with the AO and NAO, because those 2 require negative states but we want the PNA in a POSITIVE state to have our best chance of a snowstorm. Judging by all the rain we are about to get and our snow drought, you can tell the PNA is negative now and is going to stay negative until March 3rd-7th where it tries to get out of its negative stage. Right now, it looks like the PNA will stay slightly negative to nuetral around the 6th of March. This is the only thing that concerns me from getting a classic snowstorm here in the Northeast, but we will see how the models start playing it out. Speaking of the models... 12z GFS This is 12z GFS run from 2 days ago (I made this blog 2 days ago for another weather forum). This is almost the perfect setup with a High to our Northwest AND Northeast to act as a block. You can see that a ridge develops on the eastern half of the country and this is also key to getting a snowstorm, because we want our low to dig South and than shoot up the coast. We want that low in the Pacific Northwest to move further East to sharpen our ridge, and make it less zonal (flat) of a troughiness. So after these two rainstorms, we will definetely need to shift our focus for the first week of March. I think this will be our last Hoorah because lets face it, as we mow down the days on the calendar the days get longer and the nights get shorter. Yesterday I felt the suns strong rays refelcting off my snowpack, and yes the sun is "stronger" as we head into March. If we want 1 last storm its better now than late. Overall, this winter has done us well. If it wasnt for our blocking pattern in the first 2 Meteorological winter months than we would have endured a mild/rainy winter like we are seeing in the next 5 days. But I say mark your calendars, March 4th-10th will bring us one last Nor'easter that will try and break NYC's snowfall record and further add to the already remarkable snowfall totals around the Mid-atlantic and Northeast. Hope you enjoyed the read, will look forward to posting on this forum this is not written by me but by somebody from http://tristateweath...e-March-6th-9th very good post and several posts later Steve DiMartino ripped this guys theory of a snowstorm to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 no i agree...with him...there is a very good possibility of a snowstorm.....even though pattern isnt all that good...gfs shows a cold front and a coastal...yesterdays gfs showed a storm going benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 no i agree...with him...there is a very good possibility of a snowstorm.....even though pattern isnt all that good...gfs shows a cold front and a coastal...yesterdays gfs showed a storm going benchmark GFS and DGEX keep showing this storm - will be a rain changing to wet snow as just enough energy and low pressure forms to the south along the slow moving front ( late 3/6 - 3/7) - several inches of wet snow - from Central Jersey north ( maybe further south) - several runs in a row have shown this and we are getting in the 7 day range now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 and several posts later Steve DiMartino ripped this guys theory of a snowstorm to shreds lost alot of respect for him over the past couple weeks. his posts on some of the other topics have been really ignorant. and frankly, i dont pay attention to ignorant personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 agreed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12Z GFS OP shows a cutter up to the Ohio Valley in the 3/6 - 3/7 time frame then the storm is forced due east across PA and NJ with the front - different solution of course then previous runs - Mid Atlantic is all rain as the colder air never makes it here while precip is falling - because of the further west path of the storm......... after that only cutters up till mid month .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Not looking good....cutter parade on the GFS. Thank God January was a good snow month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Not looking good....cutter parade on the GFS. Thank God January was a good snow month It could change back. Seems there are strong highs to the north, but the GFS takes the lows right into them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 It could change back. Seems there are strong highs to the north, but the GFS takes the lows right into them anyway. Agreed - can't trust the gfs at all - it cut back tomorrows precip in half from 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sadly, I must admit, its over for good now. No Kocin event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sadly, I must admit, its over for good now. No Kocin event. The GFS made you change your mind, Chris? It barely gets close to midmonth before it truncates so you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The GFS made you change your mind, Chris? It barely gets close to midmonth before it truncates so you never know The ECMWF.... +NAO, +AO, and neutral PNA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sadly, I must admit, its over for good now. No Kocin event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The ECMWF.... +NAO, +AO, and neutral PNA... Chris, how long is that sad combo of indicies supposed to last for? Looks like the west coast is getting yet another snowstorm-- now its snowing all the way down to Tucson. Unreal! And we can't buy a flake lol. You know if we have another la nina next winter, I dont think we can count on our luck saving us again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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