Chris L Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All it takes is some amplification from the shortwave and withh the NAO being negative, and which will prevent it from cutting inland, will give us snow. But KU events, IMO, *hard for me to say this* are gone. Of course, I gotta be hopeful for a big finish like 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think i found the storm you guys are talking about at hr 300 of the 18z gfs, closed 500mb low, blizzard for the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah........we can only dream, the GFS has actually hinted at this for a few runs now. p.s. too early to start a thread about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup...but Canada is predicted to have well below normal temperatures anyway with the big block over the Aleutians/Bering Strait...the problem is getting the storm track more suppressed for our area, and that's exceedingly hard to do in March without a west-based -NAO, which models don't seem to be latching onto. I have to admit, I'm getting a bit worried about our chances for more snowstorms; the La Niña pattern has really taken hold and we seem to be in a Jekyll-Hyde pattern this winter like 75-76 where we started cold and snowy but have reverted to milder with fewer threats. Things could wind down surprisingly soon if the block doesn't move towards Baffin Island. I hope we get an el nino next winter. Im over this pattern. 1975-76 was a bad winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I hope we get an el nino next winter. Im over this pattern. Alex, funny, our two biggest storms are Nina(s). January 1996 and December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think i found the storm you guys are talking about at hr 300 of the 18z gfs, closed 500mb low, blizzard for the big cities We'll get one more shot at a big Nor'easter; there's usually a cut-off low somewhere off the coast in March...it just depends if we can get the cold air to line up favorably. Canada looks to continue with below average temperatures so we'll see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Alex, funny, our two biggest storms are Nina(s). January 1996 and December 2010. I know but the strong ones usually end quickly. Weak enso is ok either way, but we need a neg nao. I dont think we'll have a sustained -nao next winter without an el nino though-- this nina broke the block and to have it happen again as strong as we want it -- I think we'll need an el nino next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know but the strong ones usually end quickly. Weak enso is ok either way, but we need a neg nao. I dont think we'll have a sustained -nao next winter without an el nino though-- this nina broke the block and to have it happen again as strong as we want it -- I think we'll need an el nino next winter. Bahhh......You're looking too far ahead. GFS at 300 hrs has our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Bahhh......You're looking too far ahead. GFS at 300 hrs has our storm I wonder if the GFS has ever actually had a snowstorm in the 300 hr plus range that ended up giving us a snowstorm? If not, this would be a good time for a "first." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder if the GFS has ever actually had a snowstorm in the 300 hr plus range that ended up giving us a snowstorm? If not, this would be a good time for a "first." Hey, why not. That time period is looking more favorable at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey, why not. That time period is looking more favorable at least. I was just looking in the new england subforum and they seem to be hopeful about the second week of March when the neg pna is supposed to relax. So March 8-14 may be the time when we can see something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I wonder if the GFS has ever actually had a snowstorm in the 300 hr plus range that ended up giving us a snowstorm? If not, this would be a good time for a "first." I think the december blizzard was on for a few runs before it was modeled to go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 isnt there something to the fact of an extreme blocking phase during the summer leads to a blocky winter...? I can recall the summer of 2009 being extremely blocky. was cold and rainy. we all know how the following winter played out. The last 3 summers all had very negative NAO averages for July and August with 2008 and 2009 seeing June, July and August negative and very negative at that....only 1993 and 2000 had summers with a -NAO before tha and neither ensuing winter saw the NAO average negative, 93-94 was very positive and 00-01 only December had a -NAO. A strongly -NAO in June, July, and August often correlates to warm temperatures in the Northeast though it does not always...July 1993 had a NAO of -3.18 and we all know how hot that month was, yet July 2000 the NAO was -1.03 and it was well below normal....August 1980 was -2.24 and that was a very hot month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 looks like an interesting setup. not ideal, but could work. 850s look nice...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 pretty cold behind the departing Low. ridge builds out west, pna is progged to rise. second weekend of march looks somewhat appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Long range 6z GFS, is a weenie's dream. Cold, blocky and many snowstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 the 8-10th is the real deal. Yes, way into the fantasy range, but things line up well for that week. Actually, anytime after 180 hours looks pretty decent. Could be multiple chances, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well, maybe March will be epic. Strong signals that the blocking comes back and has some staying power on the GFS, fwiw. Lots of storm chances and a ton of cold north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah, the long range GFS looks exteremely promising. It's nice to see lot's of energy moving through and no extended periods of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 still showing up on the gfs for a couple runs in the row. still i know, its long range but this is a mar thread so eat it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 the one after hold more promise imho even if the op was a little off today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 the one after hold more promise imho even if the op was a little off today yea i agree with ya there buddy. i think the march 5-6 storm begins the switch back to blocking verbatim. looks like the gfs wants to continue to have a coastal at the tail end of the cold front from that storm so its threading the needle but its a start. but yea, then the 11-13th time period bears watching as something bigger developing in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 for the first time in a while you can see the blocking in the atlantic stick around and also the pac relaxes a little. Watch the trends over the nexy seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 all i know is that if we can get another 2 weeks of some good shots at a storm, it will be delightful to hear the public complain again that its too much, and its time for spring. words like that cements this winter is an all-time great!!! regardless how crappy FEB has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 for the first time in a while you can see the blocking in the atlantic stick around and also the pac relaxes a little. Watch the trends over the nexy seven days. Yeah looks like the Pac NW warms up after this weekend-- which is always a good sign for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well, maybe March will be epic. Strong signals that the blocking comes back and has some staying power on the GFS, fwiw. Lots of storm chances and a ton of cold IN THE TRISTATE AREA Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 all i know is that if we can get another 2 weeks of some good shots at a storm, it will be delightful to hear the public complain again that its too much, and its time for spring. words like that cements this winter is an all-time great!!! regardless how crappy FEB has been. This too is my wish. I want to see all the whiners who were saying enough is enough and are celebrating now to feel Ole man winter's wrath when the pattern flips to a snowier one crawl back under their rocks so us snow weenies can rejoice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 This too is my wish. I want to see all the whiners who were saying enough is enough and are celebrating now to feel Ole man winter's wrath when the pattern flips to a snowier one crawl back under their rocks so us snow weenies can rejoice lol. I agree. This is why I love long winters-- even if there is a torch in the middle. What some people dont understand is you NEED a torch to make a long winter, like 1966-67 or 1995-96.... its IMPOSSIBLE for it to be cold and snowy for 13 weeks straight. I'd rather have the torch in the middle of the winter and close out strong than have the torch past the midway point and have the winter end early, only to be followed by a cool rainy spring. This is why I will always put winters like 1966-67 and 1995-96 WAY ahead of a winter like 1960-61 which ended in early February. In urban areas we dont give a **** about dirty ugly old snowcover-- we care more about what falls from the sky than old crusty snowcover on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I agree. This is why I love long winters-- even if there is a torch in the middle. What some people dont understand is you NEED a torch to make a long winter, like 1966-67 or 1995-96.... its IMPOSSIBLE for it to be cold and snowy for 13 weeks straight. I'd rather have the torch in the middle of the winter and close out strong than have the torch past the midway point and have the winter end early, only to be followed by a cool rainy spring. This is why I will always put winters like 1966-67 and 1995-96 WAY ahead of a winter like 1960-61 which ended in early February. Exactly. I am all for at least another 2 feet of snow in March, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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