TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 well....it looks like energy in the form of a clipper drops down and phases with energy moving through the southern planes. I guess its not a true lakes cutter but its not a true clipper either. please stop. Its bad enough we are talking about storms this far out but your analysis is just so off it makes it even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good rule of thumb is whatever he says just read the opposite. Being a novice, I rarely (never) post with such conviction. That seemed like a no-brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Btw, I do realize your somewhat joking. Thank you. Of course I'm not expecting any model run that far out to verify. But, IMO, there are a couple of salient take aways - 1) At least one model run supports the idea that the 2nd week of March time frame could see an event. 2) Winter is not over. I support the best of both worlds, bikinis shoveling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about explaining whats wrong with the analysis instead of just saying its wrong, were all trying to learn here myself included. I obviously don't have a red tag so its obvious that what I say is coming from a novice standpoint. That would do us all some good instead of making nasty comments which just clutter the board. I said it yesterday, took criticism for it but I'll say it again, we lost alot of good posters when the forums split. That's not to say we don't have good posters here but I don't see a whole lot of red taggers posting here like I do in other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about explaining whats wrong with the analysis instead of just saying its wrong, were all trying to learn here myself included. I obviously don't have a red tag so its obvious that what I say is coming from a novice standpoint. That would do us all some good instead of making nasty comments which just clutter the board. I said it yesterday, took criticism for it but I'll say it again, we lost alot of good posters when the forums split. That's not to say we don't have good posters here but I don't see a whole lot of red taggers posting here like I do in other regions. DITTO that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Uhh, why are we talking about ANYTHING in the 300+ hr range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Uhh, why are we talking about ANYTHING in the 300+ hr range? Because that is what this thread is about as per the first post - With March on the horizon, it's time again to look at how the last month of winter will play out. Even though a long range model is almost entirely unlikely to verify, it is still useful to look at the models and learn from them. It is futile to ask how much qpf imby 300+ hours out, but one can still look at a model and analyze it and learn from it. The same explanations as to why 300+ hour models can't verify can be applied when looking at shorter range modeling. I for one especially appreciate the red taggers (and others) knowledge they impart to those of us without a formal meteorological background. And oh, yeah, one other reason to look at 300+ hours, at least for me, HOPE that winter is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thank you. Of course I'm not expecting any model run that far out to verify. But, IMO, there are a couple of salient take aways - 1) At least one model run supports the idea that the 2nd week of March time frame could see an event. 2) Winter is not over. I support the best of both worlds, bikinis shoveling snow. 1) Considering how many different models we have access to, and the number of runs per day, it's pretty easy to find one run that supports a snow event in the 2nd week of March 2) Depends on how you define winter. This winter will definitely be remembered for the unrelenting attack of snow/cold in the 1 month time frame from Christmas to January 27th. The pattern we've got in place right now might as well be a completely different year it's so far off from the Dec/Jan global regime. We've lost all semblance of high latitude blocking, and the strong nina induced SE-ridge/Lakes cutters rinse/repeat cycle has finally caught up with us. Bottom line is we're going to have to hope for a thread the needle in mid march or beyond, if we can get some blocking to come back. I do think the -NAO returns eventually, it's just a matter of when. Does it occur early enough to produce a significant snow? Or does it occur in early April just in time to ruin spring? (or both) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 1) Considering how many different models we have access to, and the number of runs per day, it's pretty easy to find one run that supports a snow event in the 2nd week of March 2) Depends on how you define winter. This winter will definitely be remembered for the unrelenting attack of snow/cold in the 1 month time frame from Christmas to January 27th. The pattern we've got in place right now might as well be a completely different year it's so far off from the Dec/Jan global regime. We've lost all semblance of high latitude blocking, and the strong nina induced SE-ridge/Lakes cutters rinse/repeat cycle has finally caught up with us. Bottom line is we're going to have to hope for a thread the needle in mid march or beyond, if we can get some blocking to come back. I do think the -NAO returns eventually, it's just a matter of when. Does it occur early enough to produce a significant snow? Or does it occur in early April just in time to ruin spring? (or both) You know what it reminds me of? Think Jan 2000 when there was like a three week cold and snowy pattern (especially for the lower MA) in the middle of a mild winter. Obviously, this one was somewhat more extreme and further north and lasted longer, but mid Dec through the end of Jan certainly reminds me of what happened in 2000. Hey-- you know if the -NAO returns in early April, we can still get some snow around here. Mid April or later than forget about it. BTW I see some are forecasting a return to -NAO sometime in the middle of March (10-15 is the time period I read) and then back to a SE ridge after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You know what it reminds me of? Think Jan 2000 when there was like a three week cold and snowy pattern (especially for the lower MA) in the middle of a mild winter. Obviously, this one was somewhat more extreme and further north and lasted longer, but mid Dec through the end of Jan certainly reminds me of what happened in 2000. Hey-- you know if the -NAO returns in early April, we can still get some snow around here. Mid April or later than forget about it. BTW I see some are forecasting a return to -NAO sometime in the middle of March (10-15 is the time period I read) and then back to a SE ridge after the 20th. Alex, you and I are in it until April 10th. In a long winter like this, April can have snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Alex, you and I are in it until April 10th. In a long winter like this, April can have snow.... I agree, Chris. As a matter of fact, we have had accumulating snow on average one out of three years in the first ten days of April-- much more common than getting it in the last 10 days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I agree, Chris. As a matter of fact, we have had accumulating snow on average one out of three years in the first ten days of April-- much more common than getting it in the last 10 days of March. April 10 is my B-day, so I'm in it with you guys Here's hoping for snow on my B-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 April 10 is my B-day, so I'm in it with you guys Here's hoping for snow on my B-day Happy early birthday BTW do you remember April 10, 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I agree, Chris. As a matter of fact, we have had accumulating snow on average one out of three years in the first ten days of April-- much more common than getting it in the last 10 days of March. Yep, with my all-time favorite April snowstorm being April 7, 2003. I have never seen that much snow anywhere near that late (6.5''). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Happy early birthday BTW do you remember April 10, 1996? Certainly.....And thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep, with my all-time favorite April snowstorm being April 7, 2003. I have never seen that much snow anywhere near that late (6.5''). One of my favorite daytime snows of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Certainly.....And thanks You're welcome. I wish the board had been around back then, what a storm that was. Whiteout conditions pretty much all night, it really felt like a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z Euro is way warmer than the 0z and 6z GFS in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This pattern blows. If we have no chance at any more snow, then at least let us warm up. Cold and dry warm and wet does absolutely nothing for me personally. I'm getting fearful that the cold and wet pattern will want to get re-established just in time to ruin summer completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Uhh, why are we talking about ANYTHING in the 300+ hr range? because this is a march 2011 thread. if you dont wanna hear anything about 300+ hr out, dont read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This pattern blows. If we have no chance at any more snow, then at least let us warm up. Cold and dry warm and wet does absolutely nothing for me personally. I'm getting fearful that the cold and wet pattern will want to get re-established just in time to ruin summer completely. Yes that is my fear, would love a hot and dry summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, just a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 GFS has a HUGE block. wow. ECMWF has a PNA ridge or is trying to make one. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 isnt there something to the fact of an extreme blocking phase during the summer leads to a blocky winter...? I can recall the summer of 2009 being extremely blocky. was cold and rainy. we all know how the following winter played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 GFS has a HUGE block. wow. ECMWF has a PNA ridge or is trying to make one. We'll see. What time period is it for? 10 days from now? If so, it fits within our March 5-10 time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, just a little different Convection over the Caribbean....not a good thing for us. I like the GFS NAO though GFS has a HUGE block. wow. ECMWF has a PNA ridge or is trying to make one. We'll see. its transitive....does not stay for long before getting squashed by another low coming down from the Nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection over the Caribbean....not a good thing for us. I like the GFS NAO though its transitive....does not stay for long before getting squashed by another low coming down from the Nw. Pacific is just dreadful with this pattern; the strong Aleutian ridge is preventing the establishment of a +PNA. Blocking returns to Greenland but looks to be severely east-based, and that won't help much at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Pacific is just dreadful with this pattern; the strong Aleutian ridge is preventing the establishment of a +PNA. Blocking returns to Greenland but looks to be severely east-based, and that won't help much at this point in the season. Its better than having the vortex over greenland....at least it will keep some cold air on this side of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Its better than having the vortex over greenland....at least it will keep some cold air on this side of the world Yup...but Canada is predicted to have well below normal temperatures anyway with the big block over the Aleutians/Bering Strait...the problem is getting the storm track more suppressed for our area, and that's exceedingly hard to do in March without a west-based -NAO, which models don't seem to be latching onto. I have to admit, I'm getting a bit worried about our chances for more snowstorms; the La Niña pattern has really taken hold and we seem to be in a Jekyll-Hyde pattern this winter like 75-76 where we started cold and snowy but have reverted to milder with fewer threats. Things could wind down surprisingly soon if the block doesn't move towards Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup...but Canada is predicted to have well below normal temperatures anyway with the big block over the Aleutians/Bering Strait...the problem is getting the storm track more suppressed for our area, and that's exceedingly hard to do in March without a west-based -NAO, which models don't seem to be latching onto. I have to admit, I'm getting a bit worried about our chances for more snowstorms; the La Niña pattern has really taken hold and we seem to be in a Jekyll-Hyde pattern this winter like 75-76 where we started cold and snowy but have reverted to milder with fewer threats. Things could wind down surprisingly soon if the block doesn't move towards Baffin Island. Snow threats yes....but I doubt we see the cold make an exit like last year. I could see us below average for part of the spring, and there is a large amount of cold still pooled in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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