March 2011

[winterwx21]

I have always considered March an "elevation month" when it comes to snowfall. During March, perhaps more than any other month, elevation is a major player in determining how much snow an area sees accumulate. Also time of day becomes more important with the increasing sun angle. Your chances of accumulation are generally better if it snows at night or very late in the afternoon. And because more solar radiation is absorbed (and retained), being in a suburban or rural area is a little more important when it comes to accumulations than during the Dead of Winter. It is fairly unusual for snow to remain on the ground for very long in March in our area, even in the favored outlying areas. Over the last 12 winters, Long Island has seen just three March snowstorms of at least 10 inches (1999, 2001, and 2009).

Seems as if every snow event we've had this winter has been at night. 2, 3, 4 in the morning I'm up watching it snow. Hopefully the pattern of overnight snow events will continue in March, since the sun angle is a big deal then as you mentioned.

[A-L-E-X]

This I can agree.

It is going to take a heck of an effort to get it going after March 10th, like always, we shall see. Probably last hurrah around St. Paddy's Day.

You and I are in it until the bitter end. Ive seen enough April events no to lose hope until about April 10th.

[A-L-E-X]

Seems as if every snow event we've had this winter has been at night. 2, 3, 4 in the morning I'm up watching it snow. Hopefully the pattern of overnight snow events will continue in March, since the sun angle is a big deal then as you mentioned.

I agree with William's points, but there are always outliers like April 2003. That was one of my favorite snowstorms.

[A-L-E-X]

I'll say this, the GEFS means have the Atlantic and Pacific both in shambles through the end of the run, with pretty fair agreement amongst the ensemble spreads for that range. There is still a huge area of negative anomalies on the West coast, indicative of the -PNA, and very little support for a -NAO or blocking regime. This takes us through March 10th. If that were the case--the window of getting warning criteria snow down to the coastal plain would be closing fast.

This is looking really long range-- but one thing that has me nervous about next winter (especially if we have another la nina) is that the consistently neg AO/NAO pattern that lasted over a two year period has finally broken in a decisive way, so perhaps the la nina has gotten to it finally and caused it to dissolve. If the la nina goes into next winter (and perhaps even if its cold neutral), we might not be as lucky as we were this winter and a pos NAO might be more likely next winter. I think we really need a flip back to el nino next winter.

[Guest Pamela]

I agree with William's points, but there are always outliers like April 2003. That was one of my favorite snowstorms.

Not to mention the Blizzard of April 1982 being a daytime event...though temps were not borderline (it was in the mid 20's).

[A-L-E-X]

Not to mention the Blizzard of April 1982 being a daytime event...though temps were not borderline (it was in the mid 20's).

That was an amazing event. I would add April 1996 to that also (although that started in the morning and continued through the day and night) and April 1997 which really busted here (forecast was for 8-12 inches), but not because of the time of year, but because we ended up in a dryslot. If what happened over SNE had been westward we would have been BURIED in April 1997 to the tune of over a foot of snow. Central NJ had 6-10 inches of snow and SNE had a foot - two feet plus of snow, we were just unlucky to be in the wrong place (not wrong time) with that storm.

[Mitchel Volk]

The reason that March may becoming harder to get a real snowstorm might be global warming. Global warming might be good for winter snows, but I might also shorten the winter season and increase the summer season. Of course this is just a hypothesis and must be reseached and proven.

[A-L-E-X]

The reason that March may becoming harder to get a real snowstorm might be global warming. Global warming might be good for winter snows, but I might also shorten the winter season and increase the summer season. Of course this is just a hypothesis and must be reseached and proven.

I guess you feel the same way about November then.

The thing is, we have seen an uptick in April snowstorms-- though that might be a blip. Hell, even 30 years might be a blip considering how these things shift around with different indices and cycles.

[Guest Pamela]

That was an amazing event. I would add April 1996 to that also (although that started in the morning and continued through the day and night) and April 1997 which really busted here (forecast was for 8-12 inches), but not because of the time of year, but because we ended up in a dryslot. If what happened over SNE had been westward we would have been BURIED in April 1997 to the tune of over a foot of snow. Central NJ had 6-10 inches of snow and SNE had a foot - two feet plus of snow, we were just unlucky to be in the wrong place (not wrong time) with that storm.

Had we received even 40% of the snowfall much of SNE received from the 4/1997 event, 1996-97 would be remebered as an entirely passable winter around here, snow wise.

[EasternLI]

The reason that March may becoming harder to get a real snowstorm might be global warming. Global warming might be good for winter snows, but I might also shorten the winter season and increase the summer season. Of course this is just a hypothesis and must be reseached and proven.

I was under the impression that the global cycle was somewhere around 100 years. If that is truly the case, there wouldn't be enough data to conclude anything (then again, I don't know how far back European records go). Perhaps this is OT though.

[Guest Pamela]

The reason that March may becoming harder to get a real snowstorm might be global warming. Global warming might be good for winter snows, but I might also shorten the winter season and increase the summer season. Of course this is just a hypothesis and must be reseached and proven.

My own view is that we have been in a slight cooling trend since the 1997-98 winter. There have been several good Marchs since then...however, I would also argue that the last one was in 2005. If the trend is real, cold and at least some snow should manifest during the third month...and even linger into the first few days of April. The rapid transition into Spring we have witnessed the past few years gives me pause when I try to argue that there has been some cooling...the next few years will be telling.

[A-L-E-X]

My own view is that we have been in a slight cooling trend since the 1997-98 winter. There have been several good Marchs since then...however, I would also argue that the last one was in 2005. If the trend is real, cold and at least some snow should manifest during the third month...and even linger into the first few days of April. The rapid transistion into Spring we have witnessed the past few years gives me pause when I try to argue that there has been some cooling...the next few years will be telling.

Honestly, I think a better argument can be made about November-- but either way we really dont have enough data.

[Guest Pamela]

Honestly, I think a better argument can be made about November-- but either way we really dont have enough data.

A cold autumn seem to be a rara avis in recent history....

[A-L-E-X]

A cold autumn seem to be a rara avis in recent history....

I agree-- November in particular. I remember Tony had some interesting stats about that month. It's strange though, how October has gone the other way.

[nzucker]

My own view is that we have been in a slight cooling trend since the 1997-98 winter. There have been several good Marchs since then...however, I would also argue that the last one was in 2005. If the trend is real, cold and at least some snow should manifest during the third month...and even linger into the first few days of April. The rapid transition into Spring we have witnessed the past few years gives me pause when I try to argue that there has been some cooling...the next few years will be telling.

You can see that global temps have leveled off some since the 1998 El Niño; the warming trend is about .07C/decade according to UAH satellite analysis which is quite a bit less than the 30-year warming of nearly .2/decade...There was a spike in 2010, whereas 2011 has seen a big drop.

In terms of NYC winter, I'd argue the climate has certainly trended snowier since the flip into more of a -PDO/-NAO. The 2000s was the first decade to average over 30" snowfall per year at Central Park, and 09-10/10-11 is the snowiest two-year period on record. The last three winters have averaged slightly below normal temperatures after a string of mild winters in the 1990s, culminating in the 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00 torch...97-98 was the third warmest winter in NYC history, and 98-99 was the 5th warmest. Nationally, 98-99 and 99-00 were the warmest winters in US history (since 1896); 09-10 was the 18th coldest I believe.

[Alpha5]

Alpha-- when was the last time NYC had double digit snowfall totals for March and what's the longest streak of single digit March snowfall totals for NYC? Thanks! Also, can you post the NAO and PNA maps for the month of March 1956? I want to compare the whole month. I dont think wanting a KU Cat 1 is asking for too much

1) 1996, NYC had 13.2"

2) From 1918-1941, NYC did not record a single March snowfall over 10". If you thought we were in a bad march snow drought, imagine having no 10" snows for 2 decades!

3)

The PNA looks like it was slightly negative at the time

Meanwhile the NAO averaged -1.7 during FMA of 1956.

So it looks like a -NAO -PNA tandem was in place for the storm, I dont have the H5 maps unfortunately.

[Guest Pamela]

You can see that global temps have leveled off some since the 1998 El Niño; the warming trend is about .07C/decade according to UAH satellite analysis which is quite a bit less than the 30-year warming of nearly .2/decade...There was a spike in 2010, whereas 2011 has seen a big drop.

In terms of NYC winter, I'd argue the climate has certainly trended snowier since the flip into more of a -PDO/-NAO. The 2000s was the first decade to average over 30" snowfall per year at Central Park, and 09-10/10-11 is the snowiest two-year period on record. The last three winters have averaged slightly below normal temperatures after a string of mild winters in the 1990s, culminating in the 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00 torch...97-98 was the third warmest winter in NYC history, and 98-99 was the 5th warmest. Nationally, 98-99 and 99-00 were the warmest winters in US history (since 1896); 09-10 was the 18th coldest I believe.

This little bit of a thread hijack is my fault; most of this discussion belongs in the climate change forum. I do know that there has been great controversy over both the manner in which global averages are arrived at along with the averages themselves...and I will not open that can of worms.

What I can say (and quite obviously ones own localized experiences fall far short of any acceptable substantiation) is that I moved to Long Island in 1971....over the next 29 years....winters were, as Mao would say, "paper tigers". The last 11 have been collectively much more severe. On the other side of the ledger, most summers seemed exceptionally hot through the early to mid 1990's...and, with some exceptions, noticeably cooler since.

[A-L-E-X]

This little bit of a thread hijack is my fault; most of this discussion belongs in the climate change forum. I do know that there has been great controversy over both the manner in which global averages are arrived at along with the averages themselves...and I will not open that can of worms.

What I can say (and quite obviously ones own localized experiences fall far short of any acceptable substantiation) is that I moved to Long Island in 1971....over the next 29 years....winters were, as Mao would say, "paper tigers". The last 11 have been collectively much more severe. On the other side of the ledger, most summers seemed exceptionally hot through the early to mid 1990's...and, with some exceptions, noticeably cooler since.

Last summer was my all time favorite. First really good one since 2002. The 90s had a bunch of great ones-- 91, 93, 95, 99.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks Alpha. That was good work on your part The only other thing I remember about March 1956 is what Unc said the other day-- the AO was like +4 on March 3rd and it dropped to around -2 around the time of the storm. So big switches in March during strong la ninas have happened before.

[uncle W]

March decade averages...

March...

March decade averages...

decade....temp...high...low...max...min...precip...snow...Big.Snow.

1870's.....37.0....44.1...30.5....na.....3.....4.13"....4.2"....6.0"

1880's.....35.4....40.4...30.0....72.....5.....3.32"....5.9"..21.0"

1890's.....37.6....45.6...32.6....71.....7.....3.60"....8.2"..12.0"

1900's.....39.8....47.8...33.4....74.....7.....3.92"....5.2"....6.5"

1910's.....39.1....44.8...32.4....78.....7.....4.03"....7.9"..14.5"

1920's.....41.2....48.4...35.7....84...10.....3.45"....2.8"....7.3"

1930's.....40.2....45.2...36.5....77.....9.....4.13"....3.0"....5.6"

1940's.....41.6....51.1...35.1....86.....7.....3.63"....5.2"..18.1"

1950's.....40.5....43.4...36.4....71...11.....4.21"....6.2"..11.8"

1960's.....40.8....43.7...33.3....79.....8.....3.43"....6.1"..14.5"

1970's.....42.4....46.9...38.7....81...14.....4.27"....2.3"....5.0"

1980's.....42.8....45.8...36.7....82...13.....4.95"....3.0"....8.6"

1990's.....42.4....45.4...38.9....86...11.....4.52"....5.7"..10.6"

2000's.....42.7....47.2...39.4....78...11.....3.90"....3.5"....8.3"

1870-

2009........40.3....45.7...35.0....78.....9.....3.96"....4.9"..10.7"

1980-

2009........42.6....46.1...38.3....82...12.....4.46"....4.1"....9.2

NYC didn't see a 10" snowstorm in March from 3/4/1960 to 3/13/1993...3/22/1967 had a 9.8" snowfall...No March 10" snowfalls since 1993...earlier from 3/1/1914 to 3/8/1941...

[A-L-E-X]

Oh, I think my question was misunderstood-- what I was trying to ask was is the current streak of March total snowfalls of under 10" the largest we've had? I wasnt referring to single storm totals, but the streak of less than 10" for the whole month.

[Cfa]

The reason that March may becoming harder to get a real snowstorm might be global warming. Global warming might be good for winter snows, but I might also shorten the winter season and increase the summer season. Of course this is just a hypothesis and must be reseached and proven.

I agree with this hypothesis (if that even makes sense).

I just want it to be over, I understand the want to challenge history but I can't take anymore snow. We probably would've had a fighting chance if we didn't get our first significant snowfall in what was practically January. If this winter and last winter are any indication of a new trend then I doubt the current record will stand for much longer. I'm just looking forward to heat & severe thunderstorms.

I'm "voting" for a 2010-esque March, winter just abruptly ended at the end of Feb. No snowfall.

[NEG NAO]

Henry's and Paul's Long Range Debut...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/46107/pastelok-more-winter-coming-fr.asp

[Wannabehippie]

I will have to second your sentiment there about women in sundresses.

I like it to a point, but when you live in the city you have to be outside walking and getting around in the cold/snow, and it gets old FAST. Plus last year in Philly, we got nearly 60" in one freaking month. Sorry, that's excessive when you have to walk a mile to school and the city is basically incapable of plowing/shoveling anything.

Plus chicks in sundresses > above average snow every time dude.

[TheTrials]

I like the period around March 8th for something to pop. The first two weeks of march are going to be very active with the PNA going up and down pretty rapidly, the only problem looks to be the nao being positive the whole time.

[Capt. Adam]

I like the period around March 8th for something to pop. The first two weeks of march are going to be very active with the PNA going up and down pretty rapidly, the only problem looks to be the nao being positive the whole time.

6Z GFS hrs 348-372 = KU storm

[IsentropicLift]

6Z GFS hrs 348-372 = KU storm

Not really, a cutter runs into high pressure and re-develops over Cape Cod, in reality the QPF would look nothing like whats currently showing. Btw, I do realize your somewhat joking.

[Sampson]

Not really, a cutter runs into high pressure and re-develops over Cape Cod, in reality the QPF would look nothing like whats currently showing. Btw, I do realize your somewhat joking.

It is fantasy, but it is not a cutter.

[TheTrials]

It is fantasy, but it is not a cutter.

Good rule of thumb is whatever he says just read the opposite.

[IsentropicLift]

It is fantasy, but it is not a cutter.

well....it looks like energy in the form of a clipper drops down and phases with energy moving through the southern planes. I guess its not a true lakes cutter but its not a true clipper either.