Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With March on the horizon, it's time again to look at how the last month of winter will play out. As many will remember, last march was a major disappointment with NYC only recording a trace of snow, and temperature departures running above normal. In the past 10 years, we have had a relatively quiet streak of March snows, while there have been some good storms (07,09) a few years recorded a trace or nothing at all. Year: March Snowfall 2000: 0.4" 2001: 3.8" 2002: Trace 2003: 3.5" 2004: 4.8" 2005: 6.9" 2006: 1.3" 2007: 6.0" 2008: Trace 2009: 8.3" 2010: Trace In terms of the upcoming pattern: The NAO is forecasted to drop, but stay mainly positive The PNA is forecasted to rise with some members bringing it into positive territory The poster child for March nina's is 1956 which included a KU and 21" of snow with a DJF ONI of -1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm all snow-and-cold-ed out. I hope it is 60+ most of the month. Time to see the NYC women in sundresses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm all snow-and-cold-ed out. I hope it is 60+ most of the month. Time to see the NYC women in sundresses! You have all April, May, June, July, August, and September for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You have all April, May, June, July, August, and September for that. Yea, and I want March too. We've had 60"+ of snow. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 let's turn temps around soon, that way the SSTs don't lag so bad. BEACH season is right around the corner!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 let's turn temps around soon, that way the SSTs don't lag so bad. BEACH season is right around the corner!!! That's what I'm talkin 'bout!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You have all April, May, June, July, August, and September for that. Alpha-- when was the last time NYC had double digit snowfall totals for March and what's the longest streak of single digit March snowfall totals for NYC? Thanks! Also, can you post the NAO and PNA maps for the month of March 1956? I want to compare the whole month. I dont think wanting a KU Cat 1 is asking for too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With March on the horizon, it's time again to look at how the last month of winter will play out. As many will remember, last march was a major disappointment with NYC only recording a trace of snow, and temperature departures running above normal. Year: March Snowfall 2004: 4.8" NYC proper can get screwed a bit as March marches on (ha ha i'm so clever) with yee old heat island/sun angle/whatevs. in 2004, between march 16-19 we had 11.6" of snow in the leafy burbs, while nyc just had a bit of slop. 3/16/04 5.7" 3/17-18/04 1.3" 3?19/04 4.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You have all April, May, June, July, August, and September for that. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yea, and I want March too. We've had 60"+ of snow. Enough. It seems to me that you don't like getting above average snowfall. Last year you also got sick of winter pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This. My formula for the perfect year is somewhat like what we had last year, but Id want a snowy March. What I want is 50" or more snow in the winter with at least one 20" snowstorm, our first 90 degree day in April, a nice small streak of 100 degree days in July with low humidity and a total of 30/10/3 (30 ninety degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days).... basically I want winter to be snowy and cold but then go right to summer. I have no use for spring and none really for fall either-- I want to have heat into September. Then we can have some nice severe wx outbreaks and maybe a tropical threat or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NYC proper can get screwed a bit as March marches on (ha ha i'm so clever) with yee old heat island/sun angle/whatevs. in 2004, between march 16-19 we had 11.6" of snow in the leafy burbs, while nyc just had a bit of slop. 3/16/04 5.7" 3/17-18/04 1.3" 3?19/04 4.6" Yeah, this happened in April 1996 when NYC had less than an inch and JFK had 5" and again in April 2003, when NYC had 4.5" and we had close to 8" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This. What part of the NYC metro is PWC in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It seems to me that you don't like getting above average snowfall. Last year you also got sick of winter pretty easily. I like it to a point, but when you live in the city you have to be outside walking and getting around in the cold/snow, and it gets old FAST. Plus last year in Philly, we got nearly 60" in one freaking month. Sorry, that's excessive when you have to walk a mile to school and the city is basically incapable of plowing/shoveling anything. Plus chicks in sundresses > above average snow every time dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My formula for the perfect year is somewhat like what we had last year, but Id want a snowy March. What I want is 50" or more snow in the winter with at least one 20" snowstorm, our first 90 degree day in April, a nice small streak of 100 degree days in July with low humidity and a total of 30/10/3 (30 ninety degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days).... basically I want winter to be snowy and cold but then go right to summer. I have no use for spring and none really for fall either-- I want to have heat into September. Then we can have some nice severe wx outbreaks and maybe a tropical threat or two I'd be perfectly fine with each season being 3 months, but I definitely want all four seasons. I'd like to get more snow than what I actually average, with snow being on the ground much of the time, but I also want hot summers, rather than the lukewarm weather that much of New England gets, where it is not really warm enough for a swimming pool or warm beach water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My formula for the perfect year is somewhat like what we had last year, but Id want a snowy March. What I want is 50" or more snow in the winter with at least one 20" snowstorm, our first 90 degree day in April, a nice small streak of 100 degree days in July with low humidity and a total of 30/10/3 (30 ninety degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days).... basically I want winter to be snowy and cold but then go right to summer. I have no use for spring and none really for fall either-- I want to have heat into September. Then we can have some nice severe wx outbreaks and maybe a tropical threat or two Yup, last winter was tight. Epic epic snow in Feb (I did thoroughly enjoy it), then the switch was flipped in mid march and we were off to the races after that. 90s in April were AMAZING. 2010 was one of the best weather years of my entire life, tied for me with 1996 (obvi) and probably 1989, but that was just because of Hurricane Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My formula for the perfect year is somewhat like what we had last year, but Id want a snowy March. What I want is 50" or more snow in the winter with at least one 20" snowstorm, our first 90 degree day in April, a nice small streak of 100 degree days in July with low humidity and a total of 30/10/3 (30 ninety degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days).... basically I want winter to be snowy and cold but then go right to summer. I have no use for spring and none really for fall either-- I want to have heat into September. Then we can have some nice severe wx outbreaks and maybe a tropical threat or two Actually I don't mind spring days in the 60's and 70's..very nice weather..and fall is a beautiful time of year around here..love the leaves changing..I really like all four seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I like it to a point, but when you live in the city you have to be outside walking and getting around in the cold/snow, and it gets old FAST. Plus last year in Philly, we got nearly 60" in one freaking month. Sorry, that's excessive when you have to walk a mile to school and the city is basically incapable of plowing/shoveling anything. Well, I see what you're saying about snow in the city not being as much fun. Philly should have done what they do in DC and MD, which is to shut down schools and colleges for the entire week when there's a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I was just in PR and came back to teens. Hence my slight b*tching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, I see what you're saying about snow in the city not being as much fun. Philly should have done what they do in DC and MD, which is to shut down schools and colleges for the entire week when there's a HECS We actually shut down for a day which was nice. I mean the snow was awesome just because it was so unprecedented. But last year was the year of weather not ****ing around. When it was winter it was super snowy with back to back to back major snowstorms (at least around PHL). Then spring/summer showed up shortly thereafter and basically that was that. Before you know it we were in the low 90s in the first week of April. Same with winter this December. It went from 60s/70s late summer/early fall like weather into the first couple days of Dec, then BAM, 20s/30s and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Personally I'm looking for 40" + snow in March for NYC and a mean high of 30 degrees. I love the Spring weather but I would rather have cold and snowy than 50's and rain. Actually, as long as the pattern remains very active I'm all for that. Seems to be quite the battle ready to unfold between the SE ridge and the cold air remaining up in Canada. I wonder if that might help to spark an early severe weather season. The only thing I like more than seeing a Winter Storm warning for my zone is to wake up and find the entire northeast moderate risked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 We actually shut down for a day which was nice. I mean the snow was awesome just because it was so unprecedented. But last year was the year of weather not ****ing around. When it was winter it was super snowy with back to back to back major snowstorms (at least around PHL). Then spring/summer showed up shortly thereafter and basically that was that. Before you know it we were in the low 90s in the first week of April. Same with winter this December. It went from 60s/70s late summer/early fall like weather into the first couple days of Dec, then BAM, 20s/30s and winter. That is just the way I like it, epic winter + warm spring. March 1960 had a similar pattern.....epic cold and lots of snow, then 80 degrees at the end of the month, with 90+ days in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That is just the way I like it, epic winter + warm spring. March 1960 had a similar pattern.....epic cold and lots of snow, then the next April had lots of 90+ days. Yea I like that too, generally. Although if it isn't going to snow, I want 80s. I hate 20s and dry cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Can't wait for DST in a few weeks..ready for some late sunsets..I don't know, I like March for the possible snowstorm ,but also for the springlike days..and baseball season is closing in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Great thread...I think NYC sees a decent March this year with the Pacific pattern changing more towards +PNA after 3/3...looks as if that cold air might get bottled up in Southeast Canada with a stormy pattern. Obviously we'll be batting the SE ridge for a while though...NAO/AO looks to be in positive ground for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Alpha, thanks the for the honor of me being under the subtopic. Anyway, right NOW, NYC isn't looking ideal due to the PNA and NAO rdiging and MJO state. But, I suspect, things will turn around for the last hurrah, a double digit snowfall for us and break the old record of 1995-1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have always considered March an "elevation month" when it comes to snowfall. During March, perhaps more than any other month, elevation is a major player in determining how much snow an area sees accumulate. Also time of day becomes more important with the increasing sun angle. Your chances of accumulation are generally better if it snows at night or very late in the afternoon. And because more solar radiation is absorbed (and retained), being in a suburban or rural area is a little more important when it comes to accumulations than during the Dead of Winter. It is fairly unusual for snow to remain on the ground for very long in March in our area, even in the favored outlying areas. Over the last 12 winters, Long Island has seen just three March snowstorms of at least 10 inches (1999, 2001, and 2009). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 we can turn the corner in april. we have a shot at number 1 of all time, why be against history?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll say this, the GEFS means have the Atlantic and Pacific both in shambles through the end of the run, with pretty fair agreement amongst the ensemble spreads for that range. There is still a huge area of negative anomalies on the West coast, indicative of the -PNA, and very little support for a -NAO or blocking regime. This takes us through March 10th. If that were the case--the window of getting warning criteria snow down to the coastal plain would be closing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll say this, the GEFS means have the Atlantic and Pacific both in shambles through the end of the run, with pretty fair agreement amongst the ensemble spreads for that range. There is still a huge area of negative anomalies on the West coast, indicative of the -PNA, and very little support for a -NAO or blocking regime. This takes us through March 10th. If that were the case--the window of getting warning criteria snow down to the coastal plain would be closing fast. This I can agree. It is going to take a heck of an effort to get it going after March 10th, like always, we shall see. Probably last hurrah around St. Paddy's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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