Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 We surpassed 1916-17 total of 39.6 inches. I don't have my paperwork at home, but I think the sample size is somewhere around 16 winters. BTW its also the second snowiest la nina winter on record behind you know who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 first 40" mod/strong nina to boot...2nd time we've joined the 40-40 club (only 77-78, 78-79 is the other entry). Impressive winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Incredible. Many forecasts back in November didn't see this coming. 2 nice winters in a row. Should be a 3rd next season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Incredible. Many forecasts back in November didn't see this coming. 2 nice winters in a row. Should be a 3rd next season . Even 2008-09 wasn't a complete disaster; it was fairly cold with 22.8" of snow at the airport...a fraction above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even 2008-09 wasn't a complete disaster; it was fairly cold with 22.8" of snow at the airport...a fraction above normal. Yeah, 2008-09 was your textbook normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Incredible. Many forecasts back in November didn't see this coming. 2 nice winters in a row. Should be a 3rd next season . If these winters keep on going, you're going to have to change your name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If these winters keep on going, you're going to have to change your name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If these winters keep on going, you're going to have to change your name. Quakertown HAS snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 If my math is right its now 44.0" and counting. Only 6" to go to have the first back-to-back 50" winters in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If my math is right its now 44.0" and counting. Only 6" to go to have the first back-to-back 50" winters in a row. 6" is very possible looking at 1st half of march pattern. "quakertown doesn't need more snow" would be more appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If my math is right its now 44.0" and counting. Only 6" to go to have the first back-to-back 50" winters in a row. So KPHL is at 44 inches now for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So KPHL is at 44 inches now for the season? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's a good time if you like record weather events.. most 90s and now most snow in a mod/strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's a good time if you like record weather events.. most 90s and now most snow in a mod/strong Nina. I could have done without the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Also, snowiest back to back winter on record 122.7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I could have done without the 90s. Well, PHL wouldn't have seen the 30.7" in a single storm... IF no 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Also, snowiest back to back winter on record 122.7 inches What's the average for back to back winters? At first I was thinking just double the yearly average, but I for some reason doubt that this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What's the average for back to back winters? At first I was thinking just double the yearly average, but I for some reason doubt that this is correct. lol that would of been my guess to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What's the average for back to back winters? At first I was thinking just double the yearly average, but I for some reason doubt that this is correct. E(x + y) = E(x) + E(y), assuming x and y are identically, independently distributed - which I think is a safe assumption. Therefore, E(Year1 + Year2) = E(Year1) + E(Year2) = xbar + xbar = 2*xbar Can you tell I've been doing statistical research all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol that would of been my guess to lol i actually think it's lower than the double of the yearly average....where annual is calculated as the yearly snowfall per year over a 60 year period (or something like that) back to back years would have to be calculated differently and there aren't as many back to back winters that hit the yearly average or more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i actually think it's lower than the double of the yearly average....where annual is calculated as the yearly snowfall per year over a 60 year period (or something like that) back to back years would have to be calculated differently and there aren't as many back to back winters that hit the yearly average or more.... I've never looked at the data, is there an anti-autocorrelation for annual snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i actually think it's lower than the double of the yearly average....where annual is calculated as the yearly snowfall per year over a 60 year period (or something like that) back to back years would have to be calculated differently and there aren't as many back to back winters that hit the yearly average or more.... my guess it just take each back to back winter add the 2 up come up with an average. Then take the next two winters and do the samething. Then ater you got all your averages, take those averages and average that out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 my guess it just take each back to back winter add the 2 up come up with an average. Then take the next two winters and do the samething. Then ater you got all your averages, take those averages and average that out... Which better equal 2*average annual snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Which better equal 2*average annual snowfall im bored, let me do the math...im just going with the last 30 years... and counting this one as 44 for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's actually not going to work for a 30 year sample set. E(x) = (1/n)*sum(x) E(xi + xi+1) = (1/(n-1))*sum(xi + xi+1) If n=30, E(x) = 1/30*sum(x) but E(xi + xi+1) = 1/29*((x1+x2) + (x2+x3) + (x3+x4) ... + (x28 + x29) + (x29 + x30)) =1/29*(30*2*xbar - x1- x30) *[note: sum(x) = n*xbar]* So there is a bias because of the way we are sampling the data. But as n -> infinity, E(xi + xi+1) -> 2*E(x) Wheeeeeeeee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Which better equal 2*average annual snowfall Yeah I see what you're saying...didn't need to do the calculations. I was wondering though since we are dealing with back to back years in a 40 year span wouldn't you divide everything by 20 since you have 20 sets of back to back years. For example: (1970+1971) +(1971 + 1972) would all be considered in 1 set of back to back years...do that over a 40 year period and you have 20 sets...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah I see what you're saying...didn't need to do the calculations. I was wondering though since we are dealing with back to back years in a 40 year span wouldn't you divide everything by 20 since you have 20 sets of back to back years. For example: (1970+1971) +(1971 + 1972) would all be considered in 1 set of back to back years...do that over a 40 year period and you have 20 sets...no? 39, actually, see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 39, actually, see above. lol i did the clacs, its was 22.14 lol basically seasonal avg almost over the 30 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've completely killed this thread by being a total nerd, haven't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've completely killed this thread by being a total nerd, haven't I? lol, not really, when i saw that post and all those numbers and letters i just went... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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