Hoosier Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sorry for the kind of OT question, but where do you find that convective outlook map overlayed on the county map? You can get it here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 Check the SPC Day 1 Outlook box at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The HRRR and RUC both have substantially-backed surface winds compared to the NAM/GFS, and considering their short-term reliability and increased resolution, they should be trusted. This could change the whole complexion of the event during the evening and overnight hours, as this makes the supercellular convective mode much more likely. Only thing now is the veer-back-veer winds. RUC forecast soundings from EVV to LIT don't really seem to have it at 3z so the question is what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 It is interesting how quite the HRRR is later tonight 4km WRF from 12Z is very similar in keeping most of the storm activity north of the warm front and over far SE MO/S IL this evening. Convection doesn't really get going along the cold front further south until much later. That's one nasty elevated mixed layer showing up on this morning's soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Terrifying run of the SPC WRF...many long-tracked supercells and quasi-discrete structures in SE MO/srn IL/srn IN/KY/TN/AR/MS/AL... http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Tony, pretty interesting look here on both of us getting something significant in Hermitage and the 'Boro. Turned out that Thursday's event did produce a couple EF-2's within a 5 mile radius of my home... Somewhere in that mix was my wife, me and our two pups enjoying the most terrifyingly fast moving cluster **** I care to ever be part of. Let's hope this event's storms produce in the DAY. BTW, at the point of Percy Priest, I used to go to the parkling lot on top of the dam by I-40 (its a tiny obeservation spot) and look at the storms.... was going to do that on Thursday, and that would have been a terrible, terrible idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 4km WRF from 12Z is very similar in keeping most of the storm activity north of the warm front and over far SE MO/S IL this evening. Convection doesn't really get going along the cold front further south until much later. That's one nasty elevated mixed layer showing up on this morning's soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Tony, pretty interesting look here on both of us getting something significant in Hermitage and the 'Boro. Turned out that Thursday's event did produce a couple EF-2's within a 5 mile radius of my home... Somewhere in that mix was my wife, me and our two pups enjoying the most terrifyingly fast moving cluster **** I care to ever be part of. Let's hope this event's storms produce in the DAY. BTW, at the point of Percy Priest, I used to go to the parkling lot on top of the dam by I-40 (its a tiny obeservation spot) and look at the storms.... was going to do that on Thursday, and that would have been a terrible, terrible idea. Tony - What time is 28h on here? Does this mean 9 PM tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 You can get it here: http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=20 Check the SPC Day 1 Outlook box at the bottom. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Regarding the triple point situation in OK/KS: I notice the RUC is up to its usual trick of substantially overestimating surface dew points. This could possibly be the factor tipping it toward initiation, which would also influence the HRRR, since they're initialized from the same grids. Of course, there's no way of knowing whether it would still show initiation even if its dew points were 2-3 F lower in the target area. In any case, I'm out the door and hope to be near the DL/WF intersection within a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 .UPDATE... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... INTERESTING SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 54 TO THE EAST OF THE TURNPIKE....ANGLING DOWN ALONG THE TURNPIKE NEAR ICT/IAB. MOIST BL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS SEEING DWPTS ON THE LOW 60S. THIS HAS LED TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1800 J/KG ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING...HAS LED TO AMPLE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KTS FOR POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS CLOSER TO NEAR KP28 WE COULD SEE WINDS BACK AND PULL SOME HIGHER DWPT AIR NORTHWEST TO NEAR NEAR KINGMAN AND ICT. THIS TURNING IN THE LOW LAYERS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO THREAT IN THE WARM SECTOR IN AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT THIS CHANCE IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER STORMS CAN BECOME SFC BASED. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY ON...AS CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT INITIAL CONVECTION FROM GETTING GOING...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND 00Z...WHERE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KETCHAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 go from nothing to this beast in one hour in north central OK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 ...and we're underway. T-storm warning (hail) in IL. WUUS53 KILX 271821 SVRILX ILC113-271900- /O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0003.110227T1821Z-110227T1900Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1221 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 100 PM CST. * AT 1218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCLEAN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLOOMINGTON...HEYWORTH...NORMAL...DOWNS...TOWANDA...COOKSVILLE... SAYBROOK...COLFAX...SHIRLEY...BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT...HOLDER... MORAINE VIEW STATE PARK...ELLSWORTH...ARROWSMITH AND PLEASANT HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Dangerous setup over our region later today. A PDS watch isnt out of the question. Reflecting the hatched 15% most likely where it will lie. Then compounding problems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This looks more and more like April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 clearing rapidly in western OK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 yeah, sun has been out for awhile here in SW MO. I just noticed a couple new meso discussions on the SPC website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0147.html Mid south MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Just updated my severe weather graphics, seeing the my MDT/High threat stretching back to the Enid areas, lining up with the RUC model. Thinking NC OK through NE OK to SE KS are going to see some potential for Tornadic Development. Just ran a quick output for the Enid to PNC line, alerting me of very high threat for significant tornado potential there (F2/F3 types), good pressure falls in that area over last few hours. Graphic: http://smartwxmodel.net/usa.gif END output http://smartwxmodel.net/KEND.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The cell just SW of Wichita is looking excellent, even if elevated... warning for big hail could be coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The cell just SW of Wichita is looking excellent, even if elevated... warning for big hail could be coming soon. And there it is. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 111 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 215 PM CST * AT 109 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF VIOLA...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN WICHITA...NEWTON...GODDARD...HAYSVILLE...DERBY...WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...WEST WICHITA...SOUTH WICHITA...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...COLWICH...MAIZE...EAST WICHITA...PARK CITY... VALLEY CENTER...NORTHEAST WICHITA...SEDGWICK...WALTON...LAKE AFTON...GARDEN PLAIN AND OAKLAWN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Just updated my severe weather graphics, seeing the my MDT/High threat stretching back to the Enid areas, lining up with the RUC model. Thinking NC OK through NE OK to SE KS are going to see some potential for Tornadic Development. Just ran a quick output for the Enid to PNC line, alerting me of very high threat for significant tornado potential there (F2/F3 types), good pressure falls in that area over last few hours. Graphic: http://smartwxmodel.net/usa.gif END output http://smartwxmodel.net/KEND.pdf ouch, I'm in that line. How accurate is your model in these setups, have you done any kind of verification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER S CENTRAL KS...IMMEDIATELY N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEED OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH AREAS IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WATCH AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS ON THE WARM FRONT A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The cell just SW of Wichita is looking excellent, even if elevated... warning for big hail could be coming soon. Any moment for the issuance, my output showing potential for 50-56KT winds and hail around 1.3 to 1.5" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The cell just SW of Wichita is looking excellent, even if elevated... warning for big hail could be coming soon. I'm in ICT right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 have to think this is overdone but things are going to start heating up quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah that does look a little extreme, having a slightly hard time with quite that much cape, still should be enough paired with background conditions for some interesting things to happen over the next few hours. Some nice cells over Kansas with some strong returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 hailing dimes here in ICT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Towers going up just west of I-35 northwest of Perry, OK. We've got streams up at texasstormchasers.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Will there be dozens of tornadoes today? You guys are making this sound like armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Will there be dozens of tornadoes today? You guys are making this sound like armageddon. It's a possibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 #1... 1923100 WEST WICHITA SEDGWICK KS3769 9746 KWCH STORM SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT 119TH AND KELLOGG. (ICT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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