janetjanet998 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 14z RUC showing CAPE values near 2500 j/kg in OK this evening.. I wouldn't be shocked if he see a high risk in later outlooks. I think in ther 16:30z update 1) probs increased over KS/OK 2) hatched wind ADDED over the MS valley/AR any updates tOo high would be in the 20z outlook,,still think best shot of that over MS river valley/AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 RUC makes it look like April in OK this afternoon! WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't see it happening but IF something can go up in the triple point at this time....look out. RUC and HRRR both hint at it on the reflectivity plots. I'll probably head that way soon, even if it's the ultimate in conditional-probability chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 RUC and HRRR both hint at it on the reflectivity plots. I'll probably head that way soon, even if it's the ultimate in conditional-probability chasing. big risk/big reward play but WOW if it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 RUC makes it look like April in OK this afternoon! WOW you could say that again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 FYI - Vance AFB radar is undergoing the dual-pol install and is down. EDIT: KICT is also having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This is becoming a pretty complicated setup, with 3 rounds of severe possible. Seems like this type of event has high bust potential. I seem to remember a few previous situations where either a) nothing happened, or B the system overperformed significantly. I guess it's just a wait-and-see scenario at this point. But I don't like the shrinking MDT zone on the last Day 1 update. Seems smaller than previous Day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 15z RUC and 14z HRRR are focusing development this afternoon along and south of the warm front in SE KS. Latest mesoanalysis has LI's down to -7 and a SBCAPE of 500-1000 in that area with steep mid-level lapse rates, around 200 helicity and 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM AR NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS NRN AND ERN OK...AND NE TX NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... ..MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THE AXIS OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD FROM SE TX TO NW MS AND ERN AR...ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. CONTINUED NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 300 M2/S2. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION...THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS ON SURFACE HEATING...AND EWD EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE AR INTO WRN TN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ALONG THE LLJ CORRIDOR...ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM OK ACROSS AR. THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH A CONTINUED TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 09-12Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...THOUGH QLCS TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING INTO NRN MO/IL OVERNIGHT THE INITIAL LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE LEE CYCLONE HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO OK...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE INHIBITED BY LOW STRATUS AND A SEPARATE BELT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX AND WRN OK. HOWEVER...CLEARING FROM THE W IS EXPECTED OVER THE DRYLINE AND TRIPLE POINT BY ABOUT 21Z...AND THIS SURFACE HEATING WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND LOCAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER...W OF I-35. A COMBINATION OF 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-62 F...AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS CROSS INTO THE COOL AIR N OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN KS INTO MO AND IL OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 SLGT extended further west to the triple point with stronger wording. I like I'm just north of Ardmore on I-35 heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 SLGT extended further west to the triple point with stronger wording. I like I'm just north of Ardmore on I-35 heading north. Looks like you have a good shot at some large hail in that area. Pics or it didn't happen :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottL Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Missouri kicks it off with a SVR T-Storm warning BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1037 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST * AT 1035 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VANDALIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOWLING GREEN...LOUISIANA...NEW HARTFORD...CURRYVILLE... CLARKSVILLE...ASHLEY...ST. CLEMENT...CYRENE AND EDGEWOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 14z RUC showing CAPE values near 2500 j/kg in OK this evening.. I wouldn't be shocked if he see a high risk in later outlooks. With that type of CAPE I would not be surprised to see a couple EF3's or even a violent EF4 tornado near the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Missouri kicks it off with a SVR T-Storm warning BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1037 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST * AT 1035 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VANDALIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOWLING GREEN...LOUISIANA...NEW HARTFORD...CURRYVILLE... CLARKSVILLE...ASHLEY...ST. CLEMENT...CYRENE AND EDGEWOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS. See, you look at the mesoanalysis on the SPC page and you see it showing almost zero CAPE for that area. But evidently there is plenty of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 SLGT extended further west to the triple point with stronger wording. I like I'm just north of Ardmore on I-35 heading north. Yeah that area might be pretty good today to chase. I am also thinking the triple point where the 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes would be ok. I dont chase but I would probably stay around where your at or eastern OK /western AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 See, you look at the mesoanalysis on the SPC page and you see it showing almost zero CAPE for that area. But evidently there is plenty of instability. you are looking at surface CAPE, plenty of elevated CAPE and shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 LLJ has really increased this morning off the Gulf. Stay safe chasers and those in the areas expecting activity from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 you are looking at surface CAPE, plenty of elevated CAPE and shear That explains it. It's still pretty chilly at ground level here in SEMO, about 46F temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 coupled with insane amounts of 0-1km SRH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 coupled with insane amounts of 0-1km SRH.. 15z HRRR continues to suggest triple point initiation in the 22-00z timeframe... Pretty hard to believe this will all come together properly when one considers climo for this region, but the potential can't be ignored. If storms do initiate, they likely won't have a ton of time in the warm sector. With parameters like that, they may not need it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 already getting really nice sfc winds with the dryline entering northwest OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 15z HRRR continues to suggest triple point initiation in the 22-00z timeframe... Pretty hard to believe this will all come together properly when one considers climo for this region, but the potential can't be ignored. If storms do initiate, they likely won't have a ton of time in the warm sector. With parameters like that, they may not need it, though. Ya the potential is huge at the triple if something goes, if that amount of instability is realized...wow. that area should be clearing out nicely in the next few hours. are you going to be on SN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Any storm that goes up in the warm sector in OK will have the potential to produce a violent tornado. It is just that simple. The fact that the mesoscale high-res models are pointing toward initiation is extremely disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Any storm that goes up in the warm sector in OK will have the potential to produce a violent tornado. It is just that simple. The fact that the mesoscale high-res models are pointing toward initiation is extremely disturbing. I agree with you 100% on that one. I am not good with reading maps but from what I can tell those parameters look scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 From SPC Severe Weather Outlook: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE AREA...AND THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. Could we see a PDS watch out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Norman 11 AM update: REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE LATEST MESOSCALE AND SHORT TERM MODELS /INCLUDING THE LATEST LOCAL WRF RUN/ DO NOT INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OUN CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THOUGH THE CAP MAY WIN OUT...WE WILL STILL MENTION A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE COMPARATIVELY COOLER THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH...WOULD PROBABLY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 From SPC Severe Weather Outlook: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE AREA...AND THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. Could we see a PDS watch out of this? Sounds like a high risk PWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The HRRR and RUC both have substantially-backed surface winds compared to the NAM/GFS, and considering their short-term reliability and increased resolution, they should be trusted. This could change the whole complexion of the event during the evening and overnight hours, as this makes the supercellular convective mode much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 going to be fun to hand analyze everything later on with the colored pencils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Terrifying run of the SPC WRF...many long-tracked supercells and quasi-discrete structures in SE MO/srn IL/srn IN/KY/TN/AR/MS/AL... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.