Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Euro 6 hour rainfall panels suggests something has already popped between TUL and ICT by 18Z (Noon), and storms are ongoing in Missouri already by 0Z, and between 0Z and 6Z (tomorrow evening) what appears to be linear storms has already broken out about as far South as Waco. By 18Z Monday rainfall almost an inch or more has occured in all but far Eastern Kentucky, and in Southern Ohio. Its PPV. No images. CAPE is >1000 J/Kg (I assume surface based) from Northern Oklahoma to Central Missouri by 18Z tomorrow, per the Euro, CAPE is below 500J/Kg everywhere after 12Z Monday morning. A forecast skew T in Missouri at 0Z tomorrow afternoon/evening at 37.25N and 93.3W shows over 800J/Kg CAPE, TT of 54, helicity over 400 J/Kg. The AccuWx plot doesn't give the LFC, its doesn't looks super low, closer to 800 mb than 850 mb. Just throwing out the Euro would seem to support chaseable storms before dark SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma and parts of Missouri, although I realize, despite never chasing, getting into hillier and more tree covered terrain makes chasing harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 FWIW... 12z NMM holds off initiation until 6-9z. Yes and it pops discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 NAM depicting very high tornado indicies at 09Z Appears to be right exit region at triple point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Man, this would be a much better chase opportunity if it was daylight. That's pretty good terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Man, this would be a much better chase opportunity if it was daylight. That's pretty good terrain. Sorry to reply to myself, but I'm getting some indications that this event could wind up being closer to daybreak Monday morning. PAH conference call seems to be indicating that it could be daylight for central/east portions of the PAH forecast area. Also looks like my local forecast (Perryville, MO) has shifted timing wording towards Monday time period rather than Sunday night. We're going to need to watch this event closely to see exact timings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Man, this would be a much better chase opportunity if it was daylight. That's pretty good terrain. We really like SEMO for chasing and NE AR, then come this way. Most likely what we will do. Really like SEMO to start this overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 We really like SEMO for chasing and NE AR, then come this way. Most likely what we will do. Really like SEMO to start this overnight I'm thinking your best bet is going to be New Madrid, MO down into Blytheville, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 PAH call http://www.crh.noaa....iefs/latest.mp3 Thanks, Beau. I had a problem with my browser cache loading the previous version of the conference call. I had to manually (right click) download the conference call and it worked. Your embedded player is more user friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm thinking your best bet is going to be New Madrid, MO down into Blytheville, AR. Looks good all in that area, but that triple point interests me alot. will come down to nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 New GFS looks very squirrelly. Has weakened the overall system substantially versus previous runs and has a strange looking farther south, weaker secondary low plodding east through the TN valley into Monday. Neither run looks much like the 00Z ECMWF, although the NAM certainly maintains a much stronger looking system which is more like the ECMWF, although the timing is slower. At 00Z Tue the 12Z GFS has a 994 mb low just east of Downeast ME, a secondary 1004 mb low over central VA, with a weird looking positively tilted surface trough SW out of it into far SE MS. At the same time, the 00Z ECMWF had a well organized "double barrel" 993 over upstate NY/W PA with a good cold front down into GA/FL Panhandle. The NAM has a 998 mb surface low over KHTS with a front extending S into AL. The upper systems are also light years apart, GFS is way weaker than either the NAM or ECMWF. I love it when the model spread increases the closer to an event one gets. Anyway, the ECMWF seems to be more consistent, although its ensemble mean would seem to allow for a somewhat weaker solution than its op run shows. Of the 12Z models in so far, I would lean right now towards a somewhat faster version of the NAM - will be interested to see the 12Z ECMWF. The 18Z NAM and 12Z ECMWF have trended towards the weaker solution, which showed up just as the system moved onshore. Still not sure how this all will effect severe weather potential, hopefully 0Z runs will clear things out a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The 18Z NAM and 12Z ECMWF have trended towards the weaker solution, which showed up just as the system moved onshore. Still not sure how this all will effect severe weather potential, hopefully 0Z runs will clear things out a little. The weaker solution, IMO, would only increase the tornado threat, as it would likely be accompanied by lesser linear forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The 18Z NAM and 12Z ECMWF have trended towards the weaker solution, which showed up just as the system moved onshore. Still not sure how this all will effect severe weather potential, hopefully 0Z runs will clear things out a little. The 18Z GFS trended a bit strongerthan the 12Z - and IMO the ECMWF is still quite a bit stronger than the GFS and only trended a bit weaker. It still has a 998 mb surface low over SE MO at 12Z Monday in comparison to the 18Z GFS which has a somewhat weaker upper system than the EC and a 1004 mb low over NE AR. My guess is it will end up in the middle - stronger than the GFS has been showing the last few runs but not quite as strong as the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The weaker solution, IMO, would only increase the tornado threat, as it would likely be accompanied by lesser linear forcing. Along with that would it also decrease the shear a bit so that the updrafts wouldn't be torn apart, so less instability would be needed? Sorry for the noob question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The 18Z GFS trended a bit strongerthan the 12Z - and IMO the ECMWF is still quite a bit stronger than the GFS and only trended a bit weaker. It still has a 998 mb surface low over SE MO at 12Z Monday in comparison to the 18Z GFS which has a somewhat weaker upper system than the EC and a 1004 mb low over NE AR. My guess is it will end up in the middle - stronger than the GFS has been showing the last few runs but not quite as strong as the ECMWF. I agree -- the middle road is probably the best way to go. The weaker solution, IMO, would only increase the tornado threat, as it would likely be accompanied by lesser linear forcing. While there would be lesser linear forcing, it might also mean a weaker surface reflection, and less backing at the surface. Thus my uncertainty. Although the Euro solution verbatim keeps the surface reflection intact and would imply a significant threat to the Ohio Valley in the predawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Live in Carbondale, Illinois here. See the threat of severe weather expected for Carbondale, IL tomorrow. What time do they expect this to happen (late evening like 9:00 PM or overnight?) and is this supposed to be a tornadic event or just hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rain, wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I agree -- the middle road is probably the best way to go. While there would be lesser linear forcing, it might also mean a weaker surface reflection, and less backing at the surface. Thus my uncertainty. Although the Euro solution verbatim keeps the surface reflection intact and would imply a significant threat to the Ohio Valley in the predawn hours. With the winds aloft WSWrly, a slightly veered sfc flow would still be favorable for strong tornadoes. The GFS, the weakest reflection, still has incredible low-level shear and large, looping hodos with SSW sfc winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Here's the Paudach National Weather Service conference call: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/briefs/latest.mp3 Pretty interesting information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just pushed out a new graphical severe weather threat as of 23Z, looking at NE OK, W. AR, and SW MO as the highest threat with potential for F1/F2 Tornadoes. Again this is my initial outputs on my Smartmodel. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The NWS in Paducah is going tobe very busy tomorrow. Hey Beau wasnt the Paducah's office last tornado the be rated as violent the Crosstown, MO F4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just pushed out a new graphical severe weather threat as of 23Z, looking at NE OK, W. AR, and SW MO as the highest threat with potential for F1/F2 Tornadoes. Again this is my initial outputs on my Smartmodel. http://smartwxmodel.net If this is legit, you should post some verification statistics or something similar in the long-run. I'm interested to see how accurate your algorithm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just pushed out a new graphical severe weather threat as of 23Z, looking at NE OK, W. AR, and SW MO as the highest threat with potential for F1/F2 Tornadoes. Again this is my initial outputs on my Smartmodel. http://smartwxmodel.net Springfield, MO is doing a conference call at 1 PM tomorrow for emergency managers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This is hot off the 0Z NAM for 6 PM tomorrow evening just southeast of Oklahoma City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 24hr RUC CAPE forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The new NAM is pretty similar to the 12Z ECMWF through Monday morning except the EC surface low was about 4-5 mb deeper over SE MO. It looks pretty scary for the mid-South for late Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 For someone unknown reason I cannot remember where the 36 hour reflectivity maps are located. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Central Michigan also gets .5+ QPF of snow. Huge changes compared to 18z GFS. Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 My bad lol. I deleted my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 For someone unknown reason I cannot remember where the 36 hour reflectivity maps are located. Thanks in advance. Are you talking about this? http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ 2/27 00z is not out yet. There is also the 12z: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Are you talking about this? http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ 2/27 00z is not out yet. There is also the 12z: http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Yep. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 0500 breaking out supercells over SW Illinois well b4 main show. Interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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