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Severe Weather Threat in Dixie Alley/OV Feb 27 - Mar 1


Fred Gossage

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...W KY...SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 280225Z - 280330Z NOSE OF THE 45 KT SWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THERMAL RIBBON IN ERN MO AND SRN IL THIS EVENING. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RASH OF TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA. PRESENCE OF 7-8 DEG C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL AT LEAST BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN EXISTS FOR A FEW CELLS TO BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN IND SWWD WHERE AIR MASS HEATED A LITTLE MORE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING LARGE LOW-LEVEL LOOPED HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE CELLS THAT DO NOT SUFFER FROM TOO MUCH COMPETITION FROM SURROUNDING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY VERY WELL EVOLVE AS WIND/HAIL THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..RACY.. 02/28/2011

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Any details on this?

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR BARTON

AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 901 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAKTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED DAMAGE IN THE

CITY OF PITTSBURG KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.

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Any details on this?

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR BARTON

AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 901 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAKTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED DAMAGE IN THE

CITY OF PITTSBURG KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.

LSRs indicate "uprooted trees" and pea-sized hail. Another LSR reported 1.75" hail in Pittsburg, both reports from spotters.

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Any details on this?

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR BARTON

AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 901 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAKTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED DAMAGE IN THE

CITY OF PITTSBURG KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.

Wind damage with some trees knocked down.

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TORNADO WARNING

MOC011-039-057-280400-

/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0003.110228T0314Z-110228T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

914 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

EASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

* AT 911 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF KENOMA...OR 4 MILES SOUTH OF LAMAR...MOVING

EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARCOLA...BEARCREEK...BONA...CANE HILL...

CEDARVILLE...DADEVILLE...EVERTON...GOLDEN CITY...GREENFIELD...

JERICO SPRINGS...KENOMA...LOCKWOOD...MASTERS...MILFORD...NEOLA...

SOUTH GREENFIELD...STOCKTON...SYLVANIA...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND

WAGONER.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

919 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST.

* AT 916 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF GRAVOIS MILLS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

VERSAILLES...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA SPRINGS...BARNETT...ELDON...

GRAVOIS MILLS...ROCKY MOUNT AND VERSAILLES.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT

AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

IN SPRINGFIELD.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

928 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST

* AT 926 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDNA...OR 18 MILES EAST OF

COFFEYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BARTLETT AND CHETOPA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

933 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST.

* AT 930 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF FAULKNER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF CHETOPA...

MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...CRESTLINE...

FAULKNER...GALENA...HALLOWELL...LAWTON...LOWELL...MELROSE...

NEUTRAL...RIVERTON...SHERWIN AND TREECE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

944 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST.

* AT 940 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF ALDRICH...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF

GREENFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALDRICH...BOLIVAR...BRIGHTON...

DUNNEGAN...EUDORA...FAIR PLAY...GOODSON...HALF WAY...MORRISVILLE...

PLEASANT HOPE AND POLK.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE POMME DE TERRE LAKE AND

STOCKTON LAKE.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 26

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1005 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC001-005-013-021-023-041-061-077-079-089-091-097-101-121-127-

135-145-281000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0026.110228T0405Z-110228T1000Z/

OK

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN

CHEROKEE CHOCTAW DELAWARE

HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE

MAYES MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH

MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA

SEQUOYAH WAGONER

$$

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Tornado Watch just issued E Oklahoma / W & Central Ark:

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 26NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1005 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSARC005-007-009-015-019-023-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-071-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-143-149-281000-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0026.110228T0405Z-110228T1000Z/AR. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBAXTER BENTON BOONECARROLL CLARK CLEBURNECONWAY CRAWFORD DALLASFAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTONGARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEADHOT SPRING HOWARD IZARDJOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGANMADISON MARION MILLERMONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTONOUACHITA PERRY PIKEPOLK POPE PULASKISALINE SCOTT SEARCYSEBASTIAN SEVIER STONEVAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL

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So is the stuff in Eastern Oklahoma elevated?

I don't know if you are asking this in jest, but I would think it is.

The cap seems to have won out so far, nothing really surface-based has formed today (except for the MARGINAL exception of the supercell currently north of SGF). Oh well, the cap was always expected to be a problem today, so not a surprise. We'll see what happens later tonight.

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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNINGMOC071-073-219-280500-/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0003.110228T0419Z-110228T0500Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO1019 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... GASCONADE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 1100 PM CST* AT 1014 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT STERLING...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HERMANN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HERMANN...NEW HAVEN...WASHINGTON...WARRENTON...TRELOAR... MARTHASVILLE...TRUESDALE...BAY...SWISS...BERGER AND HOLSTEIN.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 3859 9165 3888 9112 3855 9097 3849 9165TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 247DEG 42KT 3858 9151$CVKING

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Tornado warning for St. Louis

TORNADO WARNINGILC133-163-MOC071-099-183-189-219-510-280530-/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0005.110228T0447Z-110228T0530Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO1047 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 1130 PM CST* AT 1044 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRUESDALE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEAUFORT TO SULLIVAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... VILLA RIDGE...GRAY SUMMIT...PACIFIC...LAKE ST. LOUIS...DARDENNE PRAIRIE...EUREKA...WILDWOOD...O`FALLON...CEDAR HILL...WELDON SPRING...BYRNES MILL...COTTLEVILLE...ELLISVILLE...CLARKSON VALLEY...CHESTERFIELD...HIGH RIDGE...BALLWIN...ST. PETERS...MURPHY AND MANCHESTER.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEARTHE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ANDWIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THETORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.&&LAT...LON 3880 9107 3881 9018 3874 9018 3871 9020 3866 9018 3821 9020 3821 9084TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 269DEG 61KT 3874 9114 3848 9105 3821 9114$$CVKING

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