patrick7032 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 623 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 620 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAINOLA NEAR THE KANSAS STATE LINE...MOVING EAST-NORTEAST AT 50 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY MEDIA CHASERS. * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... AREAS NORTHEAST OF GRAINOLA. Yeaaaa....someone FINALLY reported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 amazing looking clear slot on that camera right now! Well, the photogenic funnel dissipated, but still a good looking wall cloud with lots of rotation. And yes, a beautiful RFD. EDIT: She's on the ground!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 tornado on ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yep looks like it to me too. At first I thought it was a fire since it's so dark, but yep looks like a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Tornado on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 looks like it's disappeared. radar scans have rotation weakening in the last 2-3 rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 that was a nce looking tornado for a few minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 looks like it could be cycling, new area of rotation getting stronger on the SW side of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Damn I missed it... anyone to a screen capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Damn I missed it... anyone to a screen capture? Sorry, I was so captivated, I failed to get a shot. I'll bet if you go to the Channel 6 web site later, they will have it posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Damn I missed it... anyone to a screen capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Nice shot. You didn't happen to get a shot of the funnel when the sun was shining on it by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 From Little Rock Have just looked at some of our 00Z sounding data...low level shear is very impressive this evening with 0-3 km helicity over 600 m2/s2...which is not surprising with the SE winds at the sfc and 50-55kt LLJ from the SW between 900-800mb. Mid-level lapse rates are steep...with nearly dry adiabatic above 650mb. However...a cap still exists around 700-650 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Cap!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 0z OUN sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 pretty close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The waiting game here is maddening Beau, you figure it's just the cap or what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Beau, has the cap weakened or broke yet. In anycase do you think the cap will break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Definantly the cap! The wave through AR. this evening should have produced or could have produced supercells. Lid stayed on tight. That will change with time Our whole crew has been gathered here since 4PM anticipating the cap to break for late afternoon. Beaus right... The waiting game is maddening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Moderate risk tugged north into southwest MO on the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Definantly the cap! The wave through AR. this evening should have produced or could have produced supercells. Lid stayed on tight. That will change with time How long do you think? In the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...WRN TN...SRN IL...WRN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MIS-MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ORGANIZES ACROSS THE OZARKS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SE KS WILL MOVE EWD INTO SW MO AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN SW MO WHERE THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERAL SUPERCELLS THAT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SRN MO...NRN AR AND SRN IL...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS INITIATION OCCURS AND STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE A BIT FAST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM FAR SW MO EWD INTO SRN IL AND SWD ACROSS NRN AR THIS EVENING WHERE LCL HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. CONCERNING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FROM SRN MO SWD ACROSS CNTRL AR AFTER 06Z. THIS LINE MAY CONTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE KS INTO SCNTRL MO BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD AND EWD WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SE OK...SRN AR...NE TX AND NRN LA...A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ELEVATED IN NATURE. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS WEAKEN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NNEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. HAVE TAKEN THE MODERATE RISK OUT OF SCNTRL AR WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 How long do you think? In the next few hours. If I had to make my own guess, would say the cap wouldn't break until that Kansas supercell makes it to around Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Moderate risk tugged north into southwest MO on the new outlook. yep and a new tornado watch will be issued shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 280103Z - 280230Z 00Z SGF SOUNDING EXHIBITED AROUND 80 J/KG MLCINH. THIS AND LIKELY NEUTRAL/DOWNWARD LARGE-SCALE MOTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING LEAD WAVE INTO W KY HAVE PROBABLY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEARTH OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER SRN MO. UPWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH THE EVENING...BOTH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE OZARKS AND AS LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE 100+ KT 500 MB JET PUNCHES NEWD THIS EVENING. STORMS OVER ERN KS SHOULD DEVELOP ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER E AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. MCV DEPARTING INTO WCNTRL IL HAS ALLOWED THE COLD AIR TO OOZE INTO SRN MORGAN...BENTON...ST. CLAIR...VERNON COUNTIES IN MO AND ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS/TRACKS N OF THESE COUNTIES WILL POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP S OF THIS LINE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN 300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF EXISTING WATCHES...A NEW WW WILL BE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARKS. ..RACY.. 02/28/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stay safe JoMo and to everyone down south tonight. Looks to be a dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stay safe JoMo and to everyone down south tonight. Looks to be a dangerous situation. yeah I'm kind of worried that supercell in SE Kansas may make a run at me once the LLJ kicks in. It has been headed ENE but it may want to head more E or ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Some nice hailers in central IL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Storms south of Cape Girardeau starting to intensify slightly. Let's see how they do next few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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