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Severe Weather Threat in Dixie Alley/OV Feb 27 - Mar 1


Fred Gossage

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

623 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 620 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF

GRAINOLA NEAR THE KANSAS STATE LINE...MOVING EAST-NORTEAST

AT 50 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY MEDIA CHASERS.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...

AREAS NORTHEAST OF GRAINOLA.

Yeaaaa....someone FINALLY reported it.

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From Little Rock

Have just looked at some of our 00Z sounding data...low level shear is very impressive this evening with 0-3 km helicity over 600 m2/s2...which is not surprising with the SE winds at the sfc and 50-55kt LLJ from the SW between 900-800mb. Mid-level lapse rates are steep...with nearly dry adiabatic above 650mb. However...a cap still exists around 700-650 mb...

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0659 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO...NRN

AR...WRN TN...SRN IL...WRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MIS-MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN

VALLEY...

A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL

JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A 50 TO 60 KT

LOW-LEVEL JET ORGANIZES ACROSS THE OZARKS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

COMPLEX ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SE KS WILL

MOVE EWD INTO SW MO AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND

TORNADOES. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN

SW MO WHERE THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO

ACCOUNT FOR SEVERAL SUPERCELLS THAT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SRN MO...NRN AR AND SRN IL...THE TORNADO

THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS INITIATION OCCURS AND

STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE A BIT FAST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE. THIS SHOULD

ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE EVERYTHING COMES

TOGETHER OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA LATE THIS

EVENING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM FAR SW MO

EWD INTO SRN IL AND SWD ACROSS NRN AR THIS EVENING WHERE LCL HEIGHTS

AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. CONCERNING

THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE

OF STORMS FROM SRN MO SWD ACROSS CNTRL AR AFTER 06Z. THIS LINE MAY

CONTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE LINE MOVING

EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH

THE STRONGER CELLS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE KS INTO SCNTRL MO BUT THIS

THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD AND EWD WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT

PERIOD AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SE OK...SRN AR...NE TX AND NRN LA...A CAPPING

INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ELEVATED IN NATURE. IN ADDITION...MODEL

FORECASTS WEAKEN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET

MOVES NNEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE CAPPING

SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. HAVE TAKEN THE MODERATE RISK

OUT OF SCNTRL AR WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER

TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/28/2011

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0703 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280103Z - 280230Z

00Z SGF SOUNDING EXHIBITED AROUND 80 J/KG MLCINH. THIS AND LIKELY

NEUTRAL/DOWNWARD LARGE-SCALE MOTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING LEAD WAVE

INTO W KY HAVE PROBABLY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEARTH OF SFC-BASED

CONVECTION OVER SRN MO.

UPWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH THE EVENING...BOTH ALONG THE

NOSE OF A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE OZARKS AND AS LEFT-EXIT

REGION OF THE 100+ KT 500 MB JET PUNCHES NEWD THIS EVENING. STORMS

OVER ERN KS SHOULD DEVELOP ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE

FARTHER E AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

MCV DEPARTING INTO WCNTRL IL HAS ALLOWED THE COLD AIR TO OOZE INTO

SRN MORGAN...BENTON...ST. CLAIR...VERNON COUNTIES IN MO AND ANY

STORM THAT DEVELOPS/TRACKS N OF THESE COUNTIES WILL POSE MOSTLY A

LARGE HAIL THREAT. MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP S OF THIS LINE

WILL BE EMBEDDED IN 300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AND MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER. AS SUCH...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AS STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF EXISTING WATCHES...A NEW WW

WILL BE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARKS.

..RACY.. 02/28/2011

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Stay safe JoMo and to everyone down south tonight. Looks to be a dangerous situation.

yeah I'm kind of worried that supercell in SE Kansas may make a run at me once the LLJ kicks in. It has been headed ENE but it may want to head more E or ESE.

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