brettjrob Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Dew points are already beginning to mix out over much of the central/western OK portion of the warm sector, probably no thanks to the drought conditions we're in. This could change later as the surface low begins to strengthen rapidly (per RUC), but there's no doubt that CAPE plot is significantly overdone, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Will there be dozens of tornadoes today? You guys are making this sound like armageddon. Seems like there maybe at least some tornadoes out there from what I've seen and the cells out there currently are dropping some decent hail from the looks of things, with good returns on radar. Agreed about the cape by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Towers are really trying to go ta my location. I've got the stream showing them up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Towers are really trying to go ta my location. I've got the stream showing them up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The latest HRRR still is quiet late tonight with the main squall...I noticed some on Storm Track are talking about this subject now, as well Interesting. I wonder if this will be one of those events where there's not a huge number of tornadoes, but whatever does occur has decent potential to be strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AR/SOUTHERN MO AND TO SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN/EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST TX NEWD TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... ..MID-SOUTH/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SURFACE BASED INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF RETREATING MOISTURE AS CURRENTLY GENERALIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THIS WEAKENING INHIBITION...AT THE VERY LEAST...A CONDITIONAL SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AMID THE RETREATING BOUNDARY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN PROXIMITY TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. PERHAPS CORRELATED TO A BAND OF MID LEVEL ASCENT IMPLIED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AT MID AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...12Z BASED GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/WRF-NMM AS WELL AS VARIOUS HRRR RUNS REFLECT SUCH POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...IS STILL EXPECTED TO OTHERWISE EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AROUND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS/POSSIBLE WATCHES. ..GUYER.. 02/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272012Z - 272145Z LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME IS DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO WRN OK. THIS IS AFFIRMED IN THE LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA WHERE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED AT LEAST THROUGH 3KM. ADDITIONALLY...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING FROM THE OK PANHANDLE...SEWD ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER TO NEAR I-40. AS THIS CU FIELD APPROACHES A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER NWRN OK. SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVOLVING THREAT. ..DARROW.. 02/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 They look like crap on radar, but we have some structure developing here pretty quickly in Blackwell, OK. Live streams up at www.texasstormchasers.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 getting some really get good heating behind the DL with temps in the mid 80's with dew points slowly mixing out some in central OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Circulation tightening up on the SE end of the KS storms... at least it's still elevated. Looks like it'll go E of Emporia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 A Thompson red box.. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 21 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 250 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20... DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS NEAR AND E OF THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS N CENTRAL OK. A SEPARATE BAND OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN NW OK DEMARCATES THE STRONG DRY SURGE AND SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOW THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S...THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE BY 22-23Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR/ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Wow, that is still some spread in DP's in western OK, 30 degrees in one county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 They look like crap on radar, but we have some structure developing here pretty quickly in Blackwell, OK. Live streams up at www.texasstormchasers.com/live Very cool stream, cheers mate and hope you get some good action! The cells do look a little clustered to be fair at the moment on radar it has to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Always fun to wake up in the morning to see that you're in the middle of the ring of fire now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Here is a 21Z SmartModel Threat graphic, I just ran with the new surface observations. Some of the sites have a value output of .71 to .75. On my model a 1 means 100% of all favorable tornadic parameters have been met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The TLX 88D has now switched to precip mode. In other news, I'm in desperate need of a better internet connection because my GR2Analyst won't work on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Wish I was in Mizzou right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Wish I was in Mizzou right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Storm in NW Major County, OK, is going to need to be watched. May be trying to take on supercellular traits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 CU developing back down into N-C. Texas. The lastest HRRR has development by 2-3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 KEAX radar could be having some issues soon with the hail passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Storm in NW Major County, OK, is going to need to be watched. May be trying to take on supercellular traits. I like that reflectivity is rapidly increasing in the last two volume scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I like that reflectivity is rapidly increasing in the last two volume scans. It may be getting close to producing a funnel. I've noticed that with the program that I run level 6 is the "threshold" for funnel or tornado development. In the last 2 scans it went from a level 2 to a level 6.Storm cell is is K0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Got a good view of a strengthening supercell coming right at us. Watch live at www.texastormchasers.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Got a good view of a strengthening supercell coming right at us. Watch live at www.texastormchasers.com/live Nice shot. Is the terrain sloped or is the camera tilted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Got a good view of a strengthening supercell coming right at us. Watch live at www.texastormchasers.com/live You see Scantlin around? His feed's cutting in-and-out but he's in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 That OK cell now has 1 inch hail indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Severe warning W of Nashville... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 408 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 445 PM CST * AT 401 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR BIG SANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TENNESSEE RIDGE... ERIN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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