Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 12Z RGEM indicating it might be just a little too warm for NYC and LI although I haven't broken everything down yet. RGEM has about 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow over virtually the entire state of CT from around 3 AM to 7AM Sunday morning (mix line looks to be right at the beach). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 What does the Euro say about our chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 What does the Euro say about our chances? Came a little south. Close to .10" UKIE is .10"-.15" as is the RGEM and GFS. Only the NAM is double that with .25"-.30" But all the models are now catching on to the NAM idea of popping a weak coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Came a little south. Close to .10" UKIE is .10"-.15" as is the RGEM and GFS, Only the NAM is double that with .25"-.30" hopefully the nam is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 hopefully the nam is onto something. Problem is, the city and coastal sections are fighting the boundary layer. 12z NAM is probably best case scenario and Bufkit still shows half of it as rain. .11" as snow and .14" as rain. 12z GFS Bufkit has the entire .12" that falls as rain for LGA and coastal sections. Most likely however is that its not rain but wet snow. Bufkit overdoes surface temps when it comes to precip type. If surface is 36, it will almost always show rain, even though its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nam looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM now in line with all the other models. Concensus is for .10"-.15" of qpf. NAM has 850's and surface below freezing for the event for NYC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM now in line with all the other models. Concensus is for .10"-.15" of qpf. NAM has 850's and surface below freezing for the event for NYC and north. I hope by NYC you mean all five boroughs of New York City Let the mix stay down around the Jersey Shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Can someone please tell me when the start time for Sundays event is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I hope by NYC you mean all five boroughs of New York City Let the mix stay down around the Jersey Shore! 32 degree line is on top of NYC, Northern Queens and Northern Nassau during the event at hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Can someone please tell me when the start time for Sundays event is? NAM has it from 4am-10am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 32 degree line is on top of NYC, Northern Queens and Northern Nassau during the event at hour 39. Just for that hour? I saw a forecast on ABC that was calling for around an inch of snow and said the mix line would make it into parts of the City, however most of the accumulating snowfall would be done by then so it really doesnt make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Just for that hour? I saw a forecast on ABC that was calling for around an inch of snow and said the mix line would make it into parts of the City, however most of the accumulating snowfall would be done by then so it really doesnt make a difference. Precip gets into our area at hour 39. Here is the surface freezing line; On south shore of LI. This is 4am Sunday: and at hour 42, or 7am its on top of NYC: By hour 45, we are all over freezing but precip is over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM has it from 4am-10am Sunday. man, the sun angle is going to be a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM has it from 4am-10am Sunday. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 man, the sun angle is going to be a killer I know you know this, but sun angle becomes a detriment when youre dealing with light precip -- basically its a function of precip intensity more than actual sun angle Although it does look like the heavier precip will be north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I know you know this, but sun angle becomes a detriment when youre dealing with light precip -- basically its a function of precip intensity more than actual sun angle Although it does look like the heavier precip will be north of our area. Not really the case anymore. Now its pretty widely spread and even for all of us. .10"-.20" for NYC, LI and north. Heavier precip amounts are now in SNE, due to weak coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not really the case anymore. Now its pretty widely spread and even for all of us. .10"-.20" for NYC, LI and north. Heavier precip amounts are now in SNE, due to weak coastal development. Any chances the coastal throws some more precip back our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Any chances the coastal throws some more precip back our way? We could only wish. But I guess theres a chance of anything. Remember Jan. 26th storm? The morning event was progged to be wayyyy north and give our area nearly no qpf. And we all got a surprise 3"-6" of snow. Then that night we all know what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 We could only wish. But I guess theres a chance of anything. Remember Jan. 26th storm? The morning event was progged to be wayyyy north and give our area nearly no qpf. And we all got a surprise 3"-6" of snow. Then that night we all know what happened. Yes-- and I remember that most of the daytime precip was forecasted to be a mix or even rain. But the intensity of the precip determined the temps and made it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 We could only wish. But I guess theres a chance of anything. Remember Jan. 26th storm? The morning event was progged to be wayyyy north and give our area nearly no qpf. And we all got a surprise 3"-6" of snow. Then that night we all know what happened. tremendously different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 tremendously different setup. LOL. I know. Just giving an example. Every single model has less then .05" of precip that morning for us. And we all got .25"-.50". Thats all Im trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 New NAM is coming in quite wet for the event at 72hrs and beyond. The ground will be quite saturated and the rivers will be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 New NAM is coming in quite wet for the event at 72hrs and beyond. The ground will be quite saturated and the rivers will be above normal. Yeah, the media has been advertising that system to be even stronger than what we have going on right now..... what does that mean? 3 inches of rain and 80 mph winds? Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah, the media has been advertising that system to be even stronger than what we have going on right now..... what does that mean? 3 inches of rain and 80 mph winds? Ugh! I've been comparing that system to the early December system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Honestly, the river by me is continuing to rise at a good clip and its still rising upstream which is a pretty good indication it will approach caution stage. Have just over a foot to go in order to begin minor flooding. The rain on Monday may just put us over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Honestly, the river by me is continuing to rise at a good clip and its still rising upstream which is a pretty good indication it will approach caution stage. Have just over a foot to go in order to begin minor flooding. The rain on Monday may just put us over the edge. We get it, your rivers are rising This is a thread about the 27/28 potential. There is an obs thread and a long range thread that your river posts would be more appropriate for. Or, start a flooding thread, its prob a good thread to have in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Kind of surprised Upton has "little or no snow accumulation" for everyone in their CWA...I don't know their definition of "little"...but I think 2, 3, or even 4 inches is possible Sunday morning...particularly over elevated parts of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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