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feb 27-28 potential winter storm


earthlight

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i think we are the only three :weenie: 's up tracking this one..

Not really much to be said about the Sunday storm...maybe 1-3" if we get lucky. The pattern looks horrid for the Monday/Tuesday threat as all the models show another cutter with the NAO being positive and a severely -PNA that promises to bring snow to the San Francisco Bay Area. We might get a regime change if the Tuesday storm bombs over Quebec and drives the NAO more negative, as the PNA is also rising towards neutral at the time the next impulse enters the playing field.

Some people are being negative about March, but we only need one good Nor'easter to shatter records, so it's not inconceivable we'll get a shot. It's hard to see the pattern remaining this way considering what the analogs are showing and hints the MJO might cross into Phase 7.

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agreed. can't wait to wake up at 8 and have it already be in the 80's.

beers and pool ftw.

do you see any more I95 threats this year or are we pretty much done? The blocking never came back..the AO..never tanked.. early.March looks like total crap right now. Any hope?

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do you see any more I95 threats this year or are we pretty much done? The blocking never came back..the AO..never tanked.. early.March looks like total crap right now. Any hope?

I know that plenty of people are barking about march, but I personally find nothing to be enthused about. Could we get lucky? Sure, I don't want to rule anything out. These chances obviously increase with more latitude.

The GEFS and Euro ensembles are pretty awful through the long range. There are some PNA spikes but these are rather transient as another trough quickly replaces it on the west coast. The high latitude blocking is almost non existent on most guidance with the exception of some weak ridging building into the far east based NAO position next week on some models.

I think we go down swinging with one or two more chances in mid march. but those who don't have much elevation are quickly running out of time. it's a race against the clock at this calendar date and unfortunately it doesn't look great.

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I know that plenty of people are barking about march, but I personally find nothing to be enthused about. Could we get lucky? Sure, I don't want to rule anything out. These chances obviously increase with more latitude.

The GEFS and Euro ensembles are pretty awful through the long range. There are some PNA spikes but these are rather transient as another trough quickly replaces it on the west coast. The high latitude blocking is almost non existent on most guidance with the exception of some weak ridging building into the far east based NAO position next week on some models.

I think we go down swinging with one or two more chances in mid march. but those who don't have much elevation are quickly running out of time. it's a race against the clock at this calendar date and unfortunately it doesn't look great.

lol John, reading this I had a flashback to last March with how enthusiastic people were about it and look what happened.

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Not really much to be said about the Sunday storm...maybe 1-3" if we get lucky. The pattern looks horrid for the Monday/Tuesday threat as all the models show another cutter with the NAO being positive and a severely -PNA that promises to bring snow to the San Francisco Bay Area. We might get a regime change if the Tuesday storm bombs over Quebec and drives the NAO more negative, as the PNA is also rising towards neutral at the time the next impulse enters the playing field.

Some people are being negative about March, but we only need one good Nor'easter to shatter records, so it's not inconceivable we'll get a shot. It's hard to see the pattern remaining this way considering what the analogs are showing and hints the MJO might cross into Phase 7.

There's yet another chance for snow at SFO? Wow.

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Yeah, I kept saying the pattern stunk and NZucker kept telling me it would snow into April.

Well, you know crazy things happen at 400 feet ;) Maybe it was snowing there on April 7th while the rest of us were basking in the nineties :)

Then again, I've also heard how people can hallucinate with that much elevation-- its got to be a lack of oxygen :snowman:

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I tend to love everything once it arrives. Around this time of year, I don't want the snow to end and in September I dread the upcoming Fall. It seems like an eternity waiting for the first snow threat to show up. I love tracking severe weather even more so than snow so an active Summer would be very nice, as long as its nice while I'm at my house at the Jersey shore :sun:

Call me a nut, but nothing would make me happier than to see a major hurricane approaching New York Harbor this year :lmao:

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I tend to love everything once it arrives. Around this time of year, I don't want the snow to end and in September I dread the upcoming Fall. It seems like an eternity waiting for the first snow threat to show up. I love tracking severe weather even more so than snow so an active Summer would be very nice, as long as its nice while I'm at my house at the Jersey shore :sun:

Call me a nut, but nothing would make me happier than to see a major hurricane approaching New York Harbor this year :lmao:

lol yea, that would be fun. I dont know about major, but I wouldnt mind seeing a Cat 1 make landfall here.

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