jm1220 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The storm looks like a wind driven rain event, march 13 2010 type? TBA haha Different setup-that was actually a coastal low that bended NW toward the NJ coast. It wasn't even that strong of a low and the very high winds weren't in that widespread an area. The dynamics focused themselves over a relatively small area that hammered southern LI and then Westchester Co. That was one ferocious wind event. I can't remember ever being in a storm where wind frequently gusted up to 80 mph, and the tree/house damage afterwards was unbelievable. Parts of my town were w/o power for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The storm looks like a wind driven rain event, march 13 2010 type? TBA haha I really don't want that.. please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This storm reminds me of the early December storm that almost had the tornado warning for Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread has gotten sidetracked with next week's storm(s), but the Sun Feb 27 threat is still very much on the table. The Euro is most bullish on it and has been consistent for 4-5 runs now on a fast-moving northern stream system which picks up a bit of Gulf moisture and has the potential to bring widespread light snow to the NYC area. The past 2 runs of the Canadian have an upstream northern stream system amplifying, which forces the Sun system to move further north and bring more warm air in. It does have snow for interior areas just N of NYC. The UKMET has what appears to be a nice overrunning setup with a weak wave moving south of New England. Much depends on how much energy remains in the SW US. The more consolidated/slower the energy in the SW US is, the more ridging will build over the Plains, which helps our northern stream system to dig more. The Euro bias is to keep energy in the SW US moving too slowly, so that must be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread has gotten sidetracked with next week's storm(s), but the Sun Feb 27 threat is still very much on the table. The Euro is most bullish on it and has been consistent for 4-5 runs now on a fast-moving northern stream system which picks up a bit of Gulf moisture and has the potential to bring widespread light snow to the NYC area. The past 2 runs of the Canadian have an upstream northern stream system amplifying, which forces the Sun system to move further north and bring more warm air in. It does have snow for interior areas just N of NYC. The UKMET has what appears to be a nice overrunning setup with a weak wave moving south of New England. Much depends on how much energy remains in the SW US. The more consolidated/slower the energy in the SW US is, the more ridging will build over the Plains, which helps our northern stream system to dig more. The Euro bias is to keep energy in the SW US moving too slowly, so that must be considered. The GFS has a rainstorm. I don't like the pattern that we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread has gotten sidetracked with next week's storm(s), but the Sun Feb 27 threat is still very much on the table. The Euro is most bullish on it and has been consistent for 4-5 runs now on a fast-moving northern stream system which picks up a bit of Gulf moisture and has the potential to bring widespread light snow to the NYC area. The past 2 runs of the Canadian have an upstream northern stream system amplifying, which forces the Sun system to move further north and bring more warm air in. It does have snow for interior areas just N of NYC. The UKMET has what appears to be a nice overrunning setup with a weak wave moving south of New England. Much depends on how much energy remains in the SW US. The more consolidated/slower the energy in the SW US is, the more ridging will build over the Plains, which helps our northern stream system to dig more. The Euro bias is to keep energy in the SW US moving too slowly, so that must be considered. Well, there is still this too FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z euro from ewall...Can someone with euro access give us details? Thanks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z euro from ewall...Can someone with euro access give us details? Thanks: it isn't looking pretty if you're looking for more snow, unfortunately.. Storm tracks well west of us and 850 mb temps torch between 10-12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 it isn't looking pretty if you're looking for more snow, unfortunately.. Storm tracks well west of us and 850 mb temps torch between 10-12C Excuse my ignorance but how does ag3's post indicate a rainstorm? Was that the right image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Excuse my ignorance but how does ag3's post indicate a rainstorm? Was that the right image? Here is the EC Day 5, which is the right image, not Day 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Excuse my ignorance but how does ag3's post indicate a rainstorm? Was that the right image? hey sundog.. sorry.. there is a very weak system on the 27th that moves through quickly with light QPF.. that would be snow.. it's the next big system quickly on it's heels.. first a warm front and then a cold front.. The airmass warms quite dramatically from the 27th to the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 06z DGEX ...ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 06z DGEX ...ftw lol.. wow.. alot of bang for the buck on the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 The potential will be zero if the model guidance continues to trend faster with the Pacific energy ejecting northeast. We need that to slow down considerably to get this northern stream feature time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 hey sundog.. sorry.. there is a very weak system on the 27th that moves through quickly with light QPF.. that would be snow.. it's the next big system quickly on it's heels.. first a warm front and then a cold front.. The airmass warms quite dramatically from the 27th to the 28th Gotcha. I'm sure most of us would take any snow even if followed by a big warmup and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 QPF ranges from about 0.02-0.05" over NYC to around 0.10" over CT and interior SE NY. QPF is available on the ECMWF site today (note that it has QPF in millimeters - you need to divide by 25.4 to get inches). http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!96!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011022312!!/ 12z euro from ewall...Can someone with euro access give us details? Thanks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For the system next week, what is preventing that energy from digging more southward towards the gulf? Is it the SE ridge? It seems like that S/W energy is very strong and might be enough to nudge the ridge axis eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For the system next week, what is preventing that energy from digging more southward towards the gulf? Is it the SE ridge? It seems like that S/W energy is very strong and might be enough to nudge the ridge axis eastward. the low pressure located off the coast of British Columbia doesn't help out. It supresses the heights and doesn't allow a ridge to bump up out west and that, in turn, does not allow for any additional amplification down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The DGEX delivers again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. and all the highs in SE canada. Its war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 and all the highs in SE canada. Its war lol yea and the dotted line is the buffer zone; its world war 3 american wx weenies vs boring weather pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. That's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 00z NAM much flatter with the trough---which puts the squabash on the threat entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 most of the srefs are showing the potential for a light snow event---this would be pretty cool. some of them are actually warm enough for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There seems to be some kind of conference going on with all those Lows in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.