earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 with the light snowfall from this morning in the books, i figured we could create a talk, discuss, banter about the next potential event which is about a week away. the dgex, gfs, and to extent the globals have shown the potential for a northern stream feature to dive southeastward with the potential for coastal redevelopment. the track and intensity of the shortwave is obviously highly suspect at this point--the guidance is having some serious trouble in this pattern. we have a cutter to get through mid-week prior to this storm, so we've got plenty of time, but i'll take it. lets kick it off with the 18z/21 dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 with the light snowfall from this morning in the books, i figured we could create a talk, discuss, banter about the next potential event which is about a week away. the dgex, gfs, and to extent the globals have shown the potential for a northern stream feature to dive southeastward with the potential for coastal redevelopment. the track and intensity of the shortwave is obviously highly suspect at this point--the guidance is having some serious trouble in this pattern. we have a cutter to get through mid-week prior to this storm, so we've got plenty of time, but i'll take it. lets kick it off with the 18z/21 dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So is this like the EE rule or something? I personally want to see the GFS cave before I'm completely confident that a cutter is 100% guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So is this like the EE rule or something? I personally want to see the GFS cave before I'm completely confident that a cutter is 100% guaranteed. Which the ensemble members are basically indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Which the ensemble members are basically indicating. cmc had a much less amplified system than what the euro is showing, like the gfs. We may see this trend East still but it will likely remain a rainy system for us either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 cmc had a much less amplified system than what the euro is showing, like the gfs. We may see this trend East still but it will likely remain a rainy system for us either way. Yeah, really no cold air source with a high off the coast and nothing to keep this storm from staying southeast of us..bad combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z gefs arent that impressive for this yet although there are two really nice hit, hope to see them come on board, most are still pretty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The pattern argues clearly that Friday is wet and not white. With no blocking, no polar vortex, and no Canadian high it will be impossible to overcome the horrible setup at H5 and the SE ridging. Think Friday will be warm and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I am curious to see how the models handle the system that this thread pertains to. Going to need something upstream to force the northern shortwave to dig and move SE of NYC. If that can happen then it is conceivable that it could spawn a secondary/coastal development, but I need to see the models develop the necessary features for this to happen, before I believe such a solution. Things need to change plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I know it's a long way out, but I'm targeting March 5th to 10th. The pattern before then looks lousy, but I like the 5th to 10th period. If we're gonna see another major winter storm this winter, I think that's the time it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lol the 0z GFS shows 4 rain events in the next 8 days. Plenty of storms, but track and temps are not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Anyone else in NYC having flashbacks to 02/05/10 tonight? Radar looks eerily similar - god, the next morning sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Anyone else in NYC having flashbacks to 02/05/10 tonight? Radar looks eerily similar - god, the next morning sucked. yeah, it stinks. we're getting some light flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Anyone else in NYC having flashbacks to 02/05/10 tonight? Radar looks eerily similar - god, the next morning sucked. Not really, because we got our storm the night before which they didnt get. Plus this storm was a borderline warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This was just painful to watch unfold Anyone else in NYC having flashbacks to 02/05/10 tonight? Radar looks eerily similar - god, the next morning sucked. yeah, it stinks. we're getting some light flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 120 the 12z euro develops a miller B off the nj coast, off the energy john was talking about. Verbatiam its prob a bit to north for nyc.....but time to work on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 126 moves just south of the benchmark.......prob a advisory type snow for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 126 moves just south of the benchmark.......prob a advisory type snow for sne what about the energy thats left in the deep south at hr 140 or so? around mar 1st? is it there on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So is this like the EE rule or something? I personally want to see the GFS cave before I'm completely confident that a cutter is 100% guaranteed. EE? NAM is with the GFS camp now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 what about the energy thats left in the deep south at hr 140 or so? around mar 1st? is it there on the euro? Hr 156 we are staring down the barrel of a big time rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hr 156 we are staring down the barrel of a big time rain storm yea...looks like it. just the other day i thought there we signs for a big one ie mix along the coast and heavy snow just to the NW of the cities but gfs and euro show big rains. atlantic is crap. i wasted 45min of my life and the boards precious space on a really bad thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 988 over central Pa at hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 yea...looks like it. just the other day i thought there we signs for a big one ie mix along the coast and heavy snow just to the NW of the cities but gfs and euro show big rains. atlantic is crap. i wasted 45min of my life and the boards precious space on a really bad thread lol. lol..hey you win some and lose some...hopefully sunday we see some snow.....right now out 172 hrs out the pattern looks like crap..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 988 over central Pa at hr 168 well its deff a bomb....Pitt and Syracuse might get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 well its deff a bomb....Pitt and Syracuse might get crushed. cleveland-buffalo-northern upsate ny...get crushed verbataim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 getting into la la land but after early next week rain storm....we get pretty chilly for early march, but things do look dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 warm surge, 850s touch +12C in the Delmarva, even +10C for coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 cleveland-buffalo-northern upsate ny...get crushed verbataim thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The storm looks like a wind driven rain event, march 13 2010 type? TBA haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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