isohume Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 There are definitely certain forecasters, even on this board (who's names I won't mention ) who have a habit of trending toward a solution that they want, and use sound meteorological reasoning to back it up (and I don't mean this in jest at all, the ones I'm thinking of are certainly quite intelligent). The thing of it is, you can often use sound meteorological reasoning to justify a solution you like... which is why our job is often more about probabilities than anything else. Yeah I've seen the dramacasters here too. Folks can justify killing someone if they want as well. lol My job is about forecasting what I think will most likely happen. No personal investment or ego attachment. No excuses or triumphs. I like it that way. Are/were you a subscriber? There were many times Joe went against extreme solution. Regardless of what he "predicted", he did it with energy and enthusiasm. Too many non subscribers take what is written on the boards to be true without ever having read or watched on a daily basis. TW No, never a subscriber. I'm going off of what I've seen wrt his tropical forecasts. It didn't take many of those for me to form my opinion of him. The things folks say about him on here do make sense tho. Idk...someone that uses childish competitive tactics as a way to look better has me wondering if they are serving the public or serving themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I believe you just made my point for me. If someone rides the model they like and uses sound meteorological reasoning for it, there is no way to prove that they are intentionally forecasting what they don't think will happen. Actually no, I didn't. If you analyze various forecasters it can definitely be determined if some lean toward certain solutions more often than others, and then check the outcomes in various cases to see how often their chosen solution was "over the top". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Actually no, I didn't. If you analyze various forecasters it can definitely be determined if some lean toward certain solutions more often than others, and then check the outcomes in various cases to see how often their chosen solution was "over the top". Of course they do. But you can never prove that they meant to forecast something they truly did not believe was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Of course they do. But you can never prove that they meant to forecast something they truly did not believe was going to happen. I never said that they didn't "believe" it would happen. But certainly there are some forecasters who don't recognize a lack of objectivity in their pronouncements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 JB leaving Accuweather is like Lebron leaving Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 JB leaving Accuweather is like Lebron leaving Cleveland Put that quote in the archives. Classic comedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 JB leaving Accuweather is like Lebron leaving Cleveland Put that quote in the archives. Classic comedy. Definte comedy! Native Clevelander and hardened Cavs fan here...heck, I'm a hardened Cleveland sports fan in general! I'd say in terms of "attitude" and "showmanship", yeah, maybe they're similar in that regard (perhaps a similarly inflated ego, too?). But at least LeBron put up the points and produced well on the court, raising the level of his team's play overall through his performance. Cannot really say too much the same for JB...at least this winter! I'd argue LeBron leaving Cleveland is a bigger loss than AccuMiss losing JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yeah I've seen the dramacasters here too. Folks can justify killing someone if they want as well. lol My job is about forecasting what I think will most likely happen. No personal investment or ego attachment. No excuses or triumphs. I like it that way. No, never a subscriber. I'm going off of what I've seen wrt his tropical forecasts. It didn't take many of those for me to form my opinion of him. The things folks say about him on here do make sense tho. Idk...someone that uses childish competitive tactics as a way to look better has me wondering if they are serving the public or serving themselves. I can tell you that JB was often misquoted and mischaracterized by many on the board, many of which weren't even subscribers. Afer being a pro subscriber since day 1 and having read 80% of JB's coluimns along the way, I can assure there were many times he was not talking about anything dramatic. Those times were rarely mentioned here on the board. However, when he did mention something unusual, it would always get mentioned. So for most of those who didn't subscribe, all they ever heard about were the "exciting" weather that JB would talk about. JB did make a great call about last winter being cold and snowy on the east coast, and his call for this year was a milder/less snowy winter for the east, especially as you go south. That one didn't work out so well for him. However, for those that say JB always predicts armegeddon for the northeast, his forecast for this winter pretty much stuck a fork in it. JB has also had many years where he forecast below normal tropical activity. One thing about him, you always knew where he stood. Some very popular forecasters simply review the models and state what could happen. At least JB says what he thinks WILL (right or wrong) happen. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Definte comedy! Native Clevelander and hardened Cavs fan here...heck, I'm a hardened Cleveland sports fan in general! I'd say in terms of "attitude" and "showmanship", yeah, maybe they're similar in that regard (perhaps a similarly inflated ego, too?). But at least LeBron put up the points and produced well on the court, raising the level of his team's play overall through his performance. Cannot really say too much the same for JB...at least this winter! I'd argue LeBron leaving Cleveland is a bigger loss than AccuMiss losing JB! Lebron definitely made his team better, but basically just because Lebron was so good. I don't think he'll ever approach Jorday due to his inablity to make all players part of the team. Keep in mind what the Bulls were prior to Jordan - similar to the Cavs before Lebron. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I can tell you that JB was often misquoted and mischaracterized by many on the board, many of which weren't even subscribers. Afer being a pro subscriber since day 1 and having read 80% of JB's coluimns along the way, I can assure there were many times he was not talking about anything dramatic. Those times were rarely mentioned here on the board. However, when he did mention something unusual, it would always get mentioned. So for most of those who didn't subscribe, all they ever heard about were the "exciting" weather that JB would talk about. JB did make a great call about last winter being cold and snowy on the east coast, and his call for this year was a milder/less snowy winter for the east, especially as you go south. That one didn't work out so well for him. However, for those that say JB always predicts armegeddon for the northeast, his forecast for this winter pretty much stuck a fork in it. JB has also had many years where he forecast below normal tropical activity. One thing about him, you always knew where he stood. Some very popular forecasters simply review the models and state what could happen. At least JB says what he thinks WILL (right or wrong) happen. TW This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Lebron definitely made his team better, but basically just because Lebron was so good. I don't think he'll ever approach Jorday due to his inablity to make all players part of the team. Keep in mind what the Bulls were prior to Jordan - similar to the Cavs before Lebron. TW Not to get too off-topic, but yeah, what you say about LeBron and the Cavs team in general is mostly true. I think pretty much other than LeBron, they were average to mediocre during his tenure there. I remember thinking at the time Jordan was big in Chicago when they were winning all those years, and Cleveland kept losing to them in the playoffs...that the main difference was that the Bulls had a very solid team plus an amazing superstar. On the other hand, the Cavs had a solid team too, but lacked a true "star" to put them over the top. When they had LeBron, it was the reverse...they had the superstar, but the team behind him I think was nothing like when they had Ehlo, Dougherty, Price, etc. If those guys were around recently with LeBron (at the top of their careers), I'd wager the Cavs would have won a championship or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 JB leaving Accuweather is like Lebron leaving Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. JB doesn't need to play games .His forecast are far superior than the rest hands down.Nobody forecasted the SE to have any snow this winter.NOAA had the SE at 30 and 40 % warmer than normal .What kind of forecast is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 From a human perspective, people will follow someone if that someone has charisma and self confidence. it doesn't matter if someone is right... I didn't like JB the few times I saw him on TV, but he did have the self confidence and charisma. I see him doing consultant work. that way he can pick and choose his work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indoorwxexpert Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. Interesting opinion of Joe from across the pond http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/met-office-v-joe-bastar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting opinion of Joe from across the pond http://autonomousmin...ce-v-joe-bastar Great article and one many on this forum should read. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 JB doesn't need to play games .His forecast are far superior than the rest hands down.Nobody forecasted the SE to have any snow this winter.NOAA had the SE at 30 and 40 % warmer than normal .What kind of forecast is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting opinion of Joe from across the pond http://autonomousmin...ce-v-joe-bastar great article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting opinion of Joe from across the pond http://autonomousmin...ce-v-joe-bastar I think the same could be said for Environment Canada - that they approach their forecasts from a default position of man made global warming. I mean the GEM model has a blatant warm bias. Most Canadians are in the AGW camp, largely because EC, along with our news outlets, tell them nothing different. Unfortunately, Canada is not exposed to as wide a range of opinions as Americans. Then again, America has ten times our population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting opinion of Joe from across the pond http://autonomousmin...ce-v-joe-bastar This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicknack Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. Sour grapes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Sour grapes? Over what? I just never bought into the whole dramacasting thing and I never will I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This doesn't change my view of him as a dramacaster and someone who is willing to play petty games in order to make himself look better than others. Agreed, that and his Glen Beck type rants against the Tropical Prediction Center got old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Agreed, that and his Glen Beck type rants against the Tropical Prediction Center got old. That's why Fox News loved him and would probably like him to keep appearing from time to time. Ratings, all about ratings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 That's why Fox News loved him and would probably like him to keep appearing from time to time. Ratings, all about ratings... Yes, he is a perfect fit for Fox News!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Agreed, that and his Glen Beck type rants against the Tropical Prediction Center got old. So who was holding a gun to your head ??I mean in this day of modern technology you could just change the channel, if he's on T V,or if he on the internet guess what . You can go to another web site.It's still a free country where you can watch or view what you want to.I get so sick of all this belly acking about how they did't like his dramacasting .Well then DON'T WATCH.!Go listen to Al Gore and get you head filled with lies.Where did that hockey stick go AL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol @ the warming whackos coming out of the woodwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I can tell you that JB was often misquoted and mischaracterized by many on the board, many of which weren't even subscribers. Afer being a pro subscriber since day 1 and having read 80% of JB's coluimns along the way, I can assure there were many times he was not talking about anything dramatic. Those times were rarely mentioned here on the board. However, when he did mention something unusual, it would always get mentioned. So for most of those who didn't subscribe, all they ever heard about were the "exciting" weather that JB would talk about. JB did make a great call about last winter being cold and snowy on the east coast, and his call for this year was a milder/less snowy winter for the east, especially as you go south. That one didn't work out so well for him. However, for those that say JB always predicts armegeddon for the northeast, his forecast for this winter pretty much stuck a fork in it. JB has also had many years where he forecast below normal tropical activity. One thing about him, you always knew where he stood. Some very popular forecasters simply review the models and state what could happen. At least JB says what he thinks WILL (right or wrong) happen. TW Really, really well said...I read about all of his forecasts from 2002 onward, and i echo these sentiments. Don Sutherland did a great job during the warm winter of 2007-2008 analyzing JB's predictions from the period 1/4-1/15/08, in which he mad very drastic (but correct) assertions about he incredible warmth that happened in the OV and NE states. NYC did not go below the freezing mark in that time frame. i wish we had the archives of that one, because in almost every instance, JB was spot on that winter, particularly in that period, which as we know is the traditional heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 So who was holding a gun to your head ??I mean in this day of modern technology you could just change the channel, if he's on T V,or if he on the internet guess what . You can go to another web site.It's still a free country where you can watch or view what you want to.I get so sick of all this belly acking about how they did't like his dramacasting .Well then DON'T WATCH.!Go listen to Al Gore and get you head filled with lies.Where did that hockey stick go AL ? I see you have been drinking the Kool-Aid . I did go to another website and your right it's a free country, if I want to complain about J.B. I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I see you have been drinking the Kool-Aid . I did go to another website and your right it's a free country, If I want to complain about J.B. I will. We'll see who's drinking the kool aid in a few years . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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