Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Wheres the cold air? it was there somewhat with this most recent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Wheres the cold air? it was there somewhat with this most recent storm. NAM depiction looks like it's a pure STJ storm. Cold air is locked up north of the polar jet in the Canadian Prairies. Notice the split flow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 GFS is completely dry here.. Little bit of wraparound for eastern WI but who knows what will fall, looks like it could be cold enough for some frozen something or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 -SN just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 NAM depiction looks like it's a pure STJ storm. Cold air is locked up north of the polar jet in the Canadian Prairies. Notice the split flow: Yeah that is one very ugly looking Pacific. Thankfully if the models are correct about the tropical forcing/MJO that should change and put us in a much for favorable set up with winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yeah that is one very ugly looking Pacific. Thankfully if the models are correct about the tropical forcing/MJO that should change and put us in a much for favorable set up with winter storms. What are your thoughts about the D7 storm showing up on the GFS. I noticed a few of its ensembles are colder. Is that in within the timeframe of the favorable MJO changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 -SN started here about an hour ago and have a dusting in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 About a half inch of snow here so far this evening. It's been snowing since before 7, so the rates are very slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think Euro looks kind of like the nam? Has two lows s/e of Detroit at hour 72...and it looks cold enough for snow??? Also, WRF looks like nam somewhat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think Euro looks kind of like the nam? Has two lows s/e of Detroit at hour 72...and it looks cold enough for snow??? Also, WRF looks like nam somewhat.. all rain euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 all rain euro. This is what I was looking at.. That's hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Haven picked up 0.3" from this fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 just shy of a half inch of snow here. not looking like much of a snow threat with this next system but we'll see. hopefully some good downpours given the very high PWATS and some thunder with a bit of elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This storm has trended a fair bit SE over the last 48 hours. I think a couple of models at one point were talking the center as far NW as the UP of MI. Too bad the arctic front couldn't have made it through in time otherwise this may have been a decent ice storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z NAM is considerably colder (850mb temps gets to 6*C at the warmest). If only we could get just a little more CAD. It'll be interesting to see if the models trend any colder, as the LLJ as we know it is pretty much history across Michigan (focused further SE). 2m temps on the NAM only gets into the mid 30s with a NNE wind, so the snowpack may be saved after all depending on how heavy the rain is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS has the QC getting a period of freezing rain tomorrow night now. Definitely colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z NAM is considerably colder (850mb temps gets to 6*C at the warmest). If only we could get just a little more CAD. It'll be interesting to see if the models trend any colder, as the LLJ as we know it is pretty much history across Michigan (focused further SE). 2m temps on the NAM only gets into the mid 30s with a NNE wind, so the snowpack may be saved after all depending on how heavy the rain is. lets keep it going SE. nothing worse than a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 lets keep it going SE. nothing worse than a cold rain. NAM raw data is VERY close to freezing rain for us. 2m temps and dewpoints are around 33*F at the warmest (during the event), lol. It's definitely in the margin of error with this snowpack, so it isn't something to scoff at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The 12z NAM is still trying to flip a narrow area over to snow. This could be one of those things where we won't know for sure until it's about to happen. Very close with the cold air trying to catch up to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS has the QC getting a period of freezing rain tomorrow night now. Definitely colder than previous runs. Looking like another 33/Rain here according to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Models trending colder by the run here. We currently have a 10" snowpack with a water content of 1.5". If we get a cold rain its going to sink some snow but no way would it wipe it out. It would solidify a glacier basically. But well see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Looking like another 33/Rain here according to the gfs Probably. The potential corridor of freezing rain is so small I doubt it has much impact anyway. From a winter storm perspective this looks like a non event for the most part. There has been some indication of a little stripe of snow on the back end on Monday, but it doesn't look all that impressive anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 These storms are turning into duds for my area. First, the last storm ran into dry air so we got nothing, then today's snow was so light we barely got a half inch(compared to models showing 2 inches for days), and now this next system appears to want to remain southeast. The models haven't been showing more than a quick shot of rain for southeast Iowa(with little if any frozen precip def zone) for a while so it wouldn't take much of a southeast shift to keep us dry. That's ok, though, because I don't really want more rain on frozen ground. btw, cyclone, it's pretty amazing you've managed to get 21 inches of snow more than me this winter despite our relatively close proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Chicago storm is fired from starting threads. MKE/ORD fail with the last 2. My congrats MSP call Looking like what was once going to a be a gully washer here will now be sprinkles come go time.. Prob lose more snow to the march sun next week than from this dud up here. Cedar Rapids has worse luck than, Kokomo. Time for a new avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 this thing is trending weaker and crappier each run, looking pretty boring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Model consensus qpf running in the 1.5-2" range here which probably won't be absorbed very well so could envision some hydro issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Well the EURO has joined the rest in trending MUCH colder....still looking at heavy rains though (0.75-1"). My guess is that IF IT HAPPENS AS MODELS SUGGEST, that rain is going to soak into our heavy snowpack and make it even heavier. We would lose some depth no doubt, but we would end up with a glacier that even the March sun cant destroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 With the second wave of snow staying to the north, it looks like the final total will be 1.1" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Time of year that the snow is melting as it hits the pavement, with air temps of 11F. Its accumulating in the shaded areas. Not much, just very fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Had 0.3" this morning, then it stopped with some dim sunshine, now we're back to big flaked light snow. Sun still trying to poke through which is leaving accums. restricted to grassy areas. Looks like some heavy snow around the Flint area in SE MI according to radar, although FNT is just reporting -SN 1SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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