A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM just got interesting. heights crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 What an odd storm, with the second low passing well east, it's not your typical rain to snow scenario, either way i have a hard time buying the warning criteria cement dump the NAM just busted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah, the models have really backed off on the idea of a triple phaser. One thing that may also potentially happen (And this will be more important for Chicago/SW & Central Michigan versus us further east) is even if the surface low itself does track pretty far to the NW, we could potentially see a second deformation axis set up further SE from the original one as the impressive looking upper level low tracks SE of here (which is one plus if anything for us). Many of them have *HINTED* at it, so it will defintely be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LOL at the 12z NAM, wouldn't that be something, heights/temps drop like a rock. 850mb temps here drop from around 8 degrees to -4 in 3hrs, thats insane. this run of the NAM continues to have .25" liquid north of I-88 this weekend which should put ORD above the record for snowfall this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 quick text extraction has 1.5" of TSPL and then 6.5" of snow for MDW and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LOL at the 12z NAM, wouldn't that be something, heights/temp drop like a rock. 850mb temps here drop from around 8 degrees to -4 in 3hrs, thats insane. It's a pretty unlikely situation but would be wild to see, that run shows some incredibly intense snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Im assuming mostly rain? Theres a Chance of Backside Moderate accumulations to keep an eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LOL at the 12z NAM, wouldn't that be something, heights/temps drop like a rock. 850mb temps here drop from around 8 degrees to -4 in 3hrs, thats insane. this run of the NAM continues to have .25" liquid north of I-88 this weekend which should put ORD above the record for snowfall this run. 12z showing just over 2" at ORD with that drawn out action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 quick text extraction has 1.5" of TSPL and then 6.5" of snow for MDW and fast. are you getting that from the IA state site raw data? lost the link for the cobb raw data from that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 are you getting that from the IA state site raw data? lost the link for the cobb raw data from that site. i just do the quick extractions from wxcaster http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 IWX WRF for the light snow event this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's a pretty unlikely situation but would be wild to see, that run shows some incredibly intense snow. I think all you can take away from it is that there's at least some potential for a quick changeover with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Any word on the 12z euro regarding frozen precip with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 IWX WRF for the light snow event this weekend looks like the snowiest feb should fall to 2011 after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 12z Euro is all rain here with the monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 15z 60hr sref took a nice little jog nw from 09z 66hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Any word on the 12z euro regarding frozen precip with this? Yes, all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yes, all rain. Gonna wipe that smile off yer face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Crazy...the 18z NAM takes H85 temps at ORD from -8C at 6PM tomorrow to +8C at 6PM Sunday. That's a 16 degree C (30 degree F) increase in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 18z NAM floods LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 18z NAM floods LAF. It's also pulling the same thing as the 12z run regarding the changeover to +SN but not as aggressive and a bit futher south this run. looks like central IL to LAF to DTX get in on some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's also pulling the same thing as the 12z run regarding the changeover to +SN but not as aggressive and a bit futher south this run. looks like central IL to LAF to DTX get in on some good snow. Clown map has a few inches here with more just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yes, all rain. Backside has been hinting Snowfall and moderate totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 HPC snow maps for the Waa snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I didn't know this snow tomorrow was waa. Thought it was just a weak clipper. Damn nao too positive for snow with main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 0Z nam @ 72 looks very interesting for parts of central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 0Z nam @ 72 looks very interesting for parts of central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 going to be interesting to watch if/where this secondary low develops, the trend the past few runs is having this backside intense band south. 12z run had it nailing chi metro and now its down to central IL. and the NAM is the only one that has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 going to be interesting to watch if/where this secondary low develops, the trend the past few runs is having this backside intense band south. 12z run had it nailing chi metro and now its down to central IL. and the NAM is the only one that has this. Euro has been teasing the snow on some runs but not quite there. There was that run a few days ago that absolutely nuked LAF with 1.75" in a 6 hour period but temps were just a bit warm. Something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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