panhandlehook Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The GFS is now trending toward the Euro. Let's see what the Euro does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It IS that Saturday stuff ahead of the main system that could have some implications for a few. See the current mess and what happened last night. Some of the models now have a stronger front runner on Saturday which naturally could suppress this event a little and or force it south some. The euro etc sort of hinted at this. It however has the strongest front runner and develops it well as it heads towards New England. Thus keep a eye out on the Saturday stuff. Basically i suspect this thing is not even close to being set in stone yet. Again see where this thing enters the Plains at as well. I garee. I think it will trend south a bit but dont think there will be enough cold air to provide much snow. Anything to prevent a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Looks like some impressive amounts for MKE there on the back end. There should also be a decent chance that much of it is snow, right? Edit: I see the 0 degree line is still just northwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not sure. I gotta wait for the bufkit that should be ready in 30-45 mins or so. I'll post them when I get the 2M, 850 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 ukie out to 72 but already too far s for any hope for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Prins, do you have the hr 48-60 qpf maps or so? Wanna see how the WAA snows and stuff do. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I garee. I think it will trend south a bit but dont think there will be enough cold air to provide much snow. Anything to prevent a cold rain Just keep in mind that if models are off with Saturday and thus it ends up weaker or whatever it could go back the other way as well. With THIS pattern i don't trust anything the models show beyond 24hrs. Thus i will take a wait and see approach. Thus all i am doing is mentioning what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Prins, do you have the hr 48-60 qpf maps or so? Wanna see how the WAA snows and stuff do. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Note Saturday and how that is looking more impressive with each new run. That in turn has implications on this storm and thus the subtle shift south. Not saying this continues or is the final outcome but just to watch that system on Saturday and ofcourse where this one enters the plains at. So basically if the Saturday system is stronger, the second one won't have as much energy to work with and thus doesn't develop as much..correct? The Ukie is pretty far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Thanks. So basically if the Saturday system is stronger, the second one won't have as much energy to work with and thus doesn't develop as much..correct?The Ukie is pretty far south! No, it would set up the baro. zone farther south and make the track farther south. It still should be a strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Thanks. No, it would set up the baro. zone farther south and make the track farther south. It still should be a strong system. So then it would probably be a win win for most of us in the rain/freezing rain zone now (S. Wisconsin/Michigan southward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 So then it would probably be a win win for most of us in the rain/freezing rain zone now (S. Wisconsin/Michigan southward). If you don't like snow it would be a good thing. This low has hardly no backside qpf, although GFS and NAM have been looking a bit better the last few runs. So a farther south track would still be rain or maybe no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 If you don't like snow it would be a good thing. This low has hardly no backside qpf, although GFS and NAM have been looking a bit better the last few runs. So a farther south track would still be rain or maybe no precip. Probably better to wait and see before trying to make such assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 GEM has a 988 low in the Lake huron area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 EURO is a bit north with the QPF compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Is the 0z Euro close to coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 HR 66: 988 LOW E. COL HR 72: 988 LOW W. NEB HR 78: 988 LOW NW Neb and another LOW in SE Kansas HR 84: 994 LOW around STL and another LOW in MI HR 90: 992 LOW NW OH. HR 96: 988 LOW in W. New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 The ECMWF sends an initial SLP into C. Michigan and the second main one towards TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Im assuming mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 On the Euro where do the best snows fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 There really isn't a big snowfall on the EURO. Maybe .25 ish QPF or so all snow in Central Wisconsin. Here it's about .3-.4 QPF freezing rain followed by .25 QPF snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 On the Euro where do the best snows fall? Probably nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Chi sent me the QPF output here, you can maybe request one but for MKE I'm pretty sure it's all a good solid rain. MON 06Z 28-FEB -0.3 5.8 998 93 96 0.36 547 548 MON 12Z 28-FEB -1.7 -0.9 1000 91 65 0.43 542 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 There really isn't a big snowfall on the EURO. Maybe .25 ish QPF or so all snow in Central Wisconsin. Here it's about .3-.4 QPF freezing rain followed by .25 QPF snow. The Euro seems especially conservative or bearish on QPF. Don't most of the other models have about 1 inch in the harder hit areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MKE euro MON 06Z 28-FEB 1.3 7.6 996 94 98 0.50 550 553 MON 12Z 28-FEB 0.7 3.6 997 93 80 0.20 545 547 MON 18Z 28-FEB 1.5 -3.7 1002 65 64 0.01 541 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Prins, you have maps for the UKIE at 84 and 90 by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Prins, you have maps for the UKIE at 84 and 90 by any chance? i only get data to 72...i gotta pay for the extra but here's 84hr slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Alright, thanks. Looks a bit east of GEM but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 6z misses me completely now...... We'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's a bit frustrating (all around, not just me ) to see such a strong low eject into the plains with a decent track, but not much precip in the cold sector. Actually, there isn't even much of a cold sector at all. If this were late March or early April, that's one thing...but in late Feb., you'd think there would be enough cold air around. Still time for things to change a bit...but it's never fun to hope that your little area will be in the tiny swath of decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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