daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ya! Ice storms! yeehaw I'll get the burn barrel out and put it in the living room in case i need to heat the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm riding the Euro here just because i hate ice... LA CROSSE .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE LOW TRACK ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THOUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO INDIANA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND CONFINED TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...KEEPING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION LATE ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINTING AT A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPTIATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z GFS is colder and a bit south through hr 78. HR 78: 988 low ok/ks border HR 84: 988 low in C. KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 from DVN THE 12Z GFS/GEM SUGGEST A MORE WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CWA OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MOVES THE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH FRESH AND PROBABLY DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWFA IMPACTING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. this the same office that said for days the current storm would come north due to lack of snow cover...so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ends up going through Chicago, but no backside QPF at all really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM always seems to be n at this range but most models seem to be coming n a bit each run so we shall see. I agree nam always seems north, sometimes it can be right though. With last weeks storm is was way north at 84 hours though. only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ends up going through Chicago, but no backside QPF at all really. not too shocking i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Some reason, NAM has more qpf on backside on then any other models. Got a few days to figure things out though, GFS would be close to a freezing rain event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lock it in bit hit for southern wisconsin northern iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What? Neither the NAM or GFS have any sort of snow in S. WI lol. It's either rain or freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 destiny just like the packers and the superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z GFS drops a turd and almost looks dry now here... Looks like Madison sees rain.. Keeps all the precip in the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Lock in the 18z, i'll take that........ Hopefully the euro doesn't drop a deuce and come north again and i'll be glazed like a donut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 from DVN THE 12Z GFS/GEM SUGGEST A MORE WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CWA OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MOVES THE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH FRESH AND PROBABLY DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWFA IMPACTING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. from the other office in IA...DMX CURRENT FEELING IS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK AS THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE FEED BACK WILL REINFORCE THE NEGATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IF ANYTHING...DISPLACE THE VORT MAX FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 from the other office in IA...DMX CURRENT FEELING IS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK AS THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE FEED BACK WILL REINFORCE THE NEGATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IF ANYTHING...DISPLACE THE VORT MAX FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. Very confusing. I wonder what they think when they see each others AFD's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This system looks sort of bizarre on several of the models. Really don't know what to think. Overall though it looks like just a rain system for most of us further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 21z 78hr sref..bout the same as 84hr 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 both 18z and 0z runs of the NAM are showing .25" liquid in northern IL during the day on saturday. LOT's afd mentioned a few inches were possible from this WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z NAM would be a good hit of snow in C and W.WI. 1 inch QPF+ of all snow. Even here we get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 both 18z and 0z runs of the NAM are showing .25" liquid in northern IL during the day on saturday. LOT's afd mentioned a few inches were possible from this WAA snow. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z NAM would be a good hit of snow in C and W.WI. 1 inch QPF+ of all snow. Even here we get some snow. So why does Western and Central Wisconsin get all the love? Lake influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The low like tracks to far to the north for you. The 0c line gets to right about FDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z NAM for some cities: (2M, 850, QPF) FDL: HR 72: 29.3, -0.9, 0.01 HR 78: 31.4, 2.4, 0.09 HR 84: 30.2, -1.6, 0.42 MKE: HR 72: 32.7, 2.6, 0.00 HR 78: 33.2, 7.0, 0.32 HR 84: 33.2, 4.3, 0.07 LSE: HR 72: 27.5, -2.2, 0.00 HR 78: 28.2, -2.2, 0.19 HR 84: 26.8, -6.6, 0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 both 18z and 0z runs of the NAM are showing .25" liquid in northern IL during the day on saturday. LOT's afd mentioned a few inches were possible from this WAA snow. It IS that Saturday stuff ahead of the main system that could have some implications for a few. See the current mess and what happened last night. Some of the models now have a stronger front runner on Saturday which naturally could suppress this event a little and or force it south some. The euro etc sort of hinted at this. It however has the strongest front runner and develops it well as it heads towards New England. Thus keep a eye out on the Saturday stuff. Basically i suspect this thing is not even close to being set in stone yet. Again see where this thing enters the Plains at as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 00 gfs looks south of here with the precip... Looks like a tongue of rain up into Madison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yup pretty much same as 18z, although it's a tad colder. .1-.25 qpf for sat, and maybe frz rain/rain or snow here for sun night/mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah... I see that wraparound precip into east WI... Still have to watch this track because any shift north and i'm playing in the (freezing) rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The Low on the GFS seems further south. The cold air seems so far north. It looks like models are starting to trend south again for the late weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The Low on the GFS seems further south. The cold air seems so far north. It looks like models are starting to trend south again for the late weekend storm. Note Saturday and how that is looking more impressive with each new run. That in turn has implications on this storm and thus the subtle shift south. Not saying this continues or is the final outcome but just to watch that system on Saturday and ofcourse where this one enters the plains at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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