Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's gonna be a wild ride for some areas. Heavy snow and then snowpack obliterated with a shot of thunder/severe. Unfortunately for you guys, I am hoping the 1st storm goes as far north as it can, because it will allow more WAA/instability further north if there isn't a snowpack across Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 fwiw..the 12z Euro has 1.17" liquid at ORD going from RA to SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18Z GEFS mean looks to track the low through extreme SE MN. A good deal west of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18Z GEFS mean looks to track the low through extreme SE MN. A good deal west of the op run. Based on its bias congrats North Dakota! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Based on its bias congrats North Dakota! It is still early. Things will change. Usually it is south of the OP though. Maybe someone can explain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 GFS shows what should be about 1/2 of rain here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 GFS drops over an inch of what i would assume would be mostly liquid across this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DDL: HR: 90: 2M Temps: 33 850: 3 QPF: 0.87 HR 93: 2M Temps: 32 850: -1 QPF: 0.31 HR 96: 2M Temps: 26 850: -4 QPF: 0.11 HR 99: 2M Temps: 20 850: -6 QPF: 0.02 So 0.87 would probably be rain, and 0.46 QPF would be frozen precip. HR 90 Would be a cold rain for you guys, although, it could be freezing rain depending on if the temps are right. Storm will also fall during the night as well, something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Temps are so close.... Its going to be ugly no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If it does rain, it could be a flash freeze as well. In 9 hrs, temps are in the 15-20 range. 1 inch qpf of rain and snowmelt etc, won't be good. Plus it will be windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 what did the 12z euro show track wise? any backside snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 what did the 12z euro show track wise? any backside snow? Low basically passes over LAF and then into western NY. Cold air tries to catch up to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 About .3-.4 QPF probably for DET for the backside snows. Don't have the exact qpf total, but it's probably around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Low basically passes over LAF and then into western NY. Cold air tries to catch up to the precip. Thanks to both. Dont know how to reply to two posts. Little south and less wrapped up as the gfs. I see the NAO is going positive so you would think it would go further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So the Euro is quite a bit south of the GFS??? GFS has the low going through MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 fwiw: 15z 84hr sref...i'm pulling for the RSM members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Prins, do you have the ukie by any chance? GEM is south like the EURO it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Prins, do you have the ukie by any chance? GEM is south like the EURO it looks like. ukie 84hr & ggem h res at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So UKIE is like the GFS then and the GEM is the farthest west model. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z NAM at hr 75 has a 984 low in W. KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 84hr 18z nam 991 L in ne MO...decent snow in nw ia/sw mn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM would have a significant freezing rain event for Central WI it looks like. Surface is well below 32 up there, and are getting at least .2-.25 qpf with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, S. MN/N. IA is all snow. La Crosse looks to be all ice, the 540 and 850 are quite a bit north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This looks to be a mild and windy rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, S. MN/N. IA is all snow. La Crosse looks to be all ice, the 540 and 850 are quite a bit north of there. NAM always seems to be n at this range but most models seem to be coming n a bit each run so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM looks to have more snow on the backside in the cold sector as well. Although, we are talking about the 18z NAM at hr 84. Couple images: Note the 850 MB temps, then look at the surface temps. Surface 32 line looks to be from about La Crosse, east to about here, then the line moves NE from here. So GB, La Crosse, Oshkosh etc all have temps below 32 but 850 is really warm. Sim Radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The one thing I like about the NAM is the depiction of snow on the backside. I don't buy the GFS and its solution of almost no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 fwiw: 18z dgex same as 18z nam with track...takes it to n MI by hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 How's the QPF up here? Look to be snow, ice or rain? Backside qpf? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 How's the QPF up here? Look to be snow, ice or rain? Backside qpf? Thanks. on the dgex? hrs 84 & 90...6hr qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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