cmichweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 we'll see if you are right! I wont be i was just having fun it would take a pretty huge change in upper level features to get this to really "cut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I wont be i was just having fun it would take a pretty huge change in upper level features to get this to really "cut". I know. I'm just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I know. I'm just kidding. lol man you're quick if anyone wants to head to chat we can talk about the euro as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol man you're quick if anyone wants to head to chat we can talk about the euro as it comes in. Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z ECMWF... SLP tracks form S. Kansas to near STL to near LAF to the N. OH/PA border. It is faster than the 12z run. Nice for for ORD/DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z GFS tracks it across Chicago (988mb) then deepens it to 976mb east of the UP of Michigan. Good shot of snow for here (KMSP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This reeks of a low over Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z GFS spits out about .75 for here... Temps look borderline again... could be rain/ice/sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I DECLARE WINTER....over. Just a few more flakes will fall and then we get our 6 months of spring/fall...before winter's here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 crap 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 gfs seems to be on crack again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks to have come even further north... looks like rain for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hope you guys like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hope you guys like rain work for me, although i'd prefer another 150 miles NW to avoid the low going over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Wouldn't put too much stock into that run, especially at this range. Appears to be having some phasing issues as the big southern low/shortwave comes east. Euro had far less in the way of phasing, hence the southern track. Would be an interesting system if it decided to do a full phase and bomb, but it's too far out to speculate on that too much. One thing is for sure, there's going to be a big storm with the amount of energy ejecting from the 4-corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS came out with some sort of dual low scenario with an ejecting hybrid Panhandle Hook/CO Low of sorts than a secondary low. Not sure I buy that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ECMWF came in north/stronger of the 0z run...Sub 984mb SLP near YYZ at 132hrs. SLP tracks from around E. Kansas to W. Illinois to NE. Indiana to around YYZ. Nice narrow band of backside snow from N. Kansas to Central/Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro looks pretty similar to the GFS with a 988 low north over west central IL cutting northeast. Also like the GFS, the 850 freezing line is pretty far north and west of the low . For this system to drop more widespread snow around here it would have to wrap up a bit more a little sooner and throw more moisture farther nw. Plenty of time to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 At 144 hours the Op 12Z ECMWF has the low near St. Louis while the 12Z Euro Ensemble mean is near Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 DTX's thoughts on this mention of 3 Jet core phasing too. THE NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGIONSUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE EXTREMELY DYNAMIC WITH THIS SYSTEM. VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TURNS COMPLETELY NEGATIVE TILT WITH UP TO 3 SEPARATE JET CORES BECOMING PHASED. DOES NOT NEED TO BE SAID BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ONE TO MONITOR. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF THE AMPLITUDE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF A VERY WARM NATURE...SUBJECT TO MOSTLY RAIN. STILL SOME CONCERN THAT A SUBSTANTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SLIDE THROUGH IN THE WAKE THAT COULD GIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SURPRISINGLY...ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LIMIT THE COOL DOWN TO FOLLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z NAM at 84hr.. already an insane baroclinic zone setting up..look at that flow coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 fwiw...18z dgex takes the 984 L from se MN to n WI by hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll take my line of storms with this one in a heartbeat, March 1st snow stebo closes shop and severe stebo opens shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z GFS brings a 986mb sfc low over Racine/Kenosha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z GFS brings a 986mb sfc low over Racine/Kenosha. Severe stebo says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Severe stebo says It's gonna be a wild ride for some areas. Heavy snow and then snowpack obliterated with a shot of thunder/severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z GFS has 850 mb winds approaching 90 kts in Ohio at 108 hours. No that's not a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z GFS has 850 mb winds approaching 90 kts in Ohio at 108 hours. No that's not a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That is pretty darn slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Soundings have an inversion/weak stable layer but you have to wonder how strong it would be. Some scary wind potential if that stuff could find a way to mix down. Anyway, let's try to keep any severe talk to the severe thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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