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Feb. 26-Mar. 1st Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Just got a bit of salt out on the sidewalk and driveway. Moderate rain mixed with sleet continues. Glaze on branches, but nothing too significant. Untreated streets are slick, but the sleet is providing some "traction" to what could otherwise be a rink.

Bank temp in town was at 31F around 45 minutes ago.

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Another pretty nice slug of precip moving into northern Illinois. Dekalb towards Chicago should pick up a nice burst of freezing rain from this over the next few hours.

We're now on the far western edge of the precip, and it's all sleet now. It's sleeted enough to cover the glaze that accumulated.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1155 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

DISCUSSION

1154 PM CST

TEMPERATURES VERY STEADILY DROPPING AS COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WITH REPORTS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BUT 3-HR TRENDS SHOW THIS HAS DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN THE AREA...DONT EXPECT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ALREADY TONIGHT. THIS IS MUCH SOONER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...THUS HAVE UPDATED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE MUCH...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE A DUSTING LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS WANING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STILL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE SHORTENED NONETHELESS AND UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

BMD

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Wow did we get soaked last night. I was shocked to see how much rain was in my gague, had 1.08". Whats more, the snow soaked it up like a sponge. The snow piles and snow banks dont even look like theyve shrunken at all since yesterday, though the depth has congealed down to 5" (it was 9" yesterday a.m.). Its as solid of a 5" as you will ever see (some 6" spots too), so water-packed that it has an icy crust on top in most spots as if it was freezing rain, even though its been in the 35-36F (temp and dew) range all night. Once the dewpoints start dropping I will probably have the most glacial mass of snow Ive ever had, probably on the order of a 5" snowpack with near 2.5" of water content in it. Im starting to wonder if this rain was a blessing in disguise. At 71 days and counting of 1"+ snowcover, if we get 21 more days we will surpass 1977-78 and make 2010-11 the whitest winter on record for Detroit!!!

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I did have a thunderstorm last night around midnight. It's quite funny that I can get it when the precipitaiton type is rain but I can't buy it to save my life when the precipitation type is frozen. Last night's thunderstorm was ht e first of this (2011) severe weather/convective season BTW.

I absolutely HATE this type of weather (and HATE is a HUGE understatment). I'm in the camp where if it isn't going to snow when it might as well get wam enough for all the snow to melt away. It's simply god awful driving on these side streets when all that snow refreezes after a rain event around 33*F-36*F. Then it's also god awful trying to step over the frozen slush without slipping and falling.

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everything out here was covered with ice this morning, probably ended up with near a .25" but with the sun out its now melting. We were about a degree or two away from this being much worse, didn't drop below 31 during the event.

Yep. I noticed while taking a walk today that the tops of the trees had significantly more ice than the bottoms, probably due to wet-bulbing effects. Just shows you how close that was to being a serious ice storm.

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