mnweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw that. This is OURS! I wouldn't be surprised. We don't have moderate drought in the arrowhead for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lets just say its rare to see a system get that strong in the middle so to say. Usually they are either off the coast or plains/W GLC's that get that strong. Bombs will go where they like unlike other "weaker" systems which can be more easily influenced by the lakes etc. Come to think of it I think Jan 79 fits this bill as well with a similar track and results. So there has been a few. Ofcourse Jan 78 tops the list but that was just east of Detroit with it's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 At THIS moment in time the models bring both the AO/NAO into the +side. The epo starts negative and is till late when it rise into the slightly positive range after this bomb. If this holds true with the EPO we should be in great shape as a -EPO dictates that the trough is not in the Pacific but farther east in the west/rockies instead which means systems have to take the low route across the sw into Texas vs like we had with the crappy CO lows which is usually the case when the trough is farther west into the Pacific. TY - And great stuff again like that post you made to the boob head me last week... Now if i can only keep it sunk in my brain until next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 TY - And great stuff again like that post you made to the boob head me last week... Now if i can only keep it sunk in my brain until next winter Yeah but i/we still got screwed by temps above. The track call was great but a fail on temps above the surface and thus the ice. I know some have little use for the indicies with storm tracking/models but they rarely steer me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah but i/we still got screwed by temps above. The track call was great but a fail on temps above the surface and thus the ice. I know some have little use for the indicies with storm tracking/models but they rarely steer me wrong. I had a feeling for a while we would be stuck in the no mans land zone while 30 miles north of me has 10" and areas in eastern MI have cad and a weakening low on their side. Me and you took one in the pooper for sure. At least we avoided any major ice. Without factoring in projected indices somewhat I don't know how you can go about trying to make a medium range forecast like the end of this week and moreso that fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My first call: 965 mb low over MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My first call: 965 mb low over MSP. What did the 0Z Euro end up showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 12Z ECMWF did not look as impressive and it was further south though it looked like the ensemble mean was more north I could be mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EURO: HR 144: 992 low on the OK/KS border HR 150 992 LOW S. MO HR 156: 988 LOW S. IL HR 162: Sub 984 LOW S. Ohio HR 168: Sub 984 LOW C. PA C. IL/IN/ S. MI/ C. OH get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LAF is a touch warm verbatim on the 12z Euro, but we get around 1.75" of QPF in a six hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LAF is a touch warm verbatim on the 12z Euro, but we get around 1.75" of QPF in a six hour period. Yeah, absolutely ridic if it were cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, absolutely ridic if it were cold enough. word filter plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 i wish this was the euro or ggem and not the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EURO: HR 144: 992 low on the OK/KS border HR 150 992 LOW S. MO HR 156: 988 LOW S. IL HR 162: Sub 984 LOW S. Ohio HR 168: Sub 984 LOW C. PA C. IL/IN/ S. MI/ C. OH get hit pretty good. sharp gradient on the northern side LAF i think was near 1.5" liquid with IKK near .5" and hardly any at ORD. with a strong low going through southern IL you would think more precip but up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 sharp gradient on the northern side LAF i think was near 1.5" liquid with IKK near .5" and hardly any at ORD. with a strong low going through southern IL you would think more precip but up here. That is one of the most extreme cut offs i have ever seen. Per the QPF Maps they show .50 line up to the IL/IN/Lake Michigan. The .25+ cuts across the northside closer to Waukegan. The .10+ line just clips the south and east side of Rockford on over to Racine. Go over to just east of Gary and .75+ and 1+ towards Michigan City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS cuts this storm more north and west. To me it seems like a good situation for this to occur and I prefer it over the more suppressed solutions of earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS cuts this storm more north and west. To me it seems like a good situation for this to occur and I prefer it over the more suppressed solutions of earlier today. How does that affect its strength? I'm cautious to believe this only because I just read DVN's discussion, and it seemed like it only expected a south/southeast trend with the system from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even though it cuts through Central Illinois and NW Indiana, the 18z GFS has this as a very mild system with rain well north of the storm center. But, of course, it's still waaay early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even though it cuts through Central Illinois and NW Indiana, the 18z GFS has this as a very mild system with rain well north of the storm center. But, of course, it's still waaay early! Well, this was definitely looking like a warm system from the outset, so I'm not surprised. Do you think it would be mostly snow around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is north of the op at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is north of the op at 168 hours. Yes the ensemble mean is farther to the nw vs OP. The ensemble mean takes the low from just south of Terre Haute to near Sandusky to near/just sw of Buffalo over lake Erie and on to that position it shows at 168. Do note though there is a healthy spread in the ensembles. Have a couple that track it into WI/N.MI and a few as far south as the OH river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 someone wannna link me to the euro ensembles site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes the ensemble mean is farther to the nw vs OP. The ensemble mean takes the low from just south of Terre Haute to near Sandusky to near/just sw of Buffalo over lake Erie and on to that position it shows at 168. Do note though there is a healthy spread in the ensembles. Have a couple that track it into WI/N.MI and a few as far south as the OH river. It looks like the 18Z GFS ensemble mean is north of the op as well.Could this be a hint the system could track farther north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 someone wannna link me to the euro ensembles site? I get the mean here. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I get the mean here. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Mine are from paysite/stormvista with QPF/6hr intervals out to 360hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Mine are from paysite/stormvista with QPF/6hr intervals out to 360hrs. How much does it cost for a year for everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How much does it cost for a year for everything? 250 a month. That does not include the euro weeklies or monthlies. They are separate. Get the euro and euro ensembles and all the rest of them along with the seasonal/climo/enso stuff. Nobody beats our time with our map outputs as well and thus we have it before everyone else does. A bit pricey but worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 250 a month. That does not include the euro weeklies or monthlies. They are separate. Get the euro and euro ensembles and all the rest of them along with the seasonal/climo/enso stuff. Nobody beats our time with our map outputs as well and thus we have it before everyone else does. A bit pricey but worth it. WOW! 250! I didn't know it was that much. I'm all for it if that is what you enjoy. Probably money well spent for you. It is nice that you even share info about the ensembles when you have to pay so much for it. How much faster do you get the Euro than someone who does not have to pay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS has a sub 975 LOW. Track from KS, N. MO, IA, N. IL, and then in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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