wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 wisconsin and MadTow, it's game over for us. Just couldn't do it. Models have a very good handle on things now. Time to look towards the Thu/Fri event and another storm later that weekend. Yes, but I'm going to see how long I can hold out before getting psyched up about either of those events. See if a two or three day break from these forums is possible. I somehow doubt it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 You're getting ahead of yourself. CID is riding the edge of the precip shield and it will stay south of Dubuque. Yeah DBQ will see nada. CID will get fringed at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stratiform rain region on the convective complex is intensifying with time. SPC was right to issue that MCD. I frankly expected to make it above freezing today, but we stalled at 32, with nowhere to go but down. Am a little more than concerned about a bad ice event here now. If those temps drop to 30 or below, I'm screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stratiform rain region on the convective complex is intensifying with time. SPC was right to issue that MCD. I frankly expected to make it above freezing today, but we stalled at 32, with nowhere to go but down. Am a little more than concerned about a bad ice event here now. If those temps drop to 30 or below, I'm screwed Might not be pretty for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yes, but I'm going to see how long I can hold out before getting psyched up about either of those events. See if a two or three day break from these forums is possible. I somehow doubt it, though. Have Hoosier give you a 3 day suspension lol. That would help you out. Good luck to you guys in the Chicago area, figures that when I need a NW trend, it doesn't happen. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Have Hoosier give you a 3 day suspension lol. That would help you out. Good luck to you guys in the Chicago area, figures that when I need a NW trend, it doesn't happen. Oh well. I would still view the forums, though. The problem isn't posting on the forums, the problem is being obsessed with reading them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I take back what I just said about the current weather. I just stepped outside and nothing is falling. The shine on the driveway is just leftover moisture from earlier. It appears Cedar Rapids won't be getting anything out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stratiform rain region on the convective complex is intensifying with time. SPC was right to issue that MCD. I frankly expected to make it above freezing today, but we stalled at 32, with nowhere to go but down. Am a little more than concerned about a bad ice event here now. If those temps drop to 30 or below, I'm screwed I'm really interested to see what's going to happen over there and over toward Chicago. 31 at ORD but 34 at MDW. In a marginal situation like this the urban heat island effect could be just enough to prevent major icing in the city. Gonna be close though and might be some pretty variable conditions across relatively small distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Stratiform rain region on the convective complex is intensifying with time. SPC was right to issue that MCD. I frankly expected to make it above freezing today, but we stalled at 32, with nowhere to go but down. Am a little more than concerned about a bad ice event here now. If those temps drop to 30 or below, I'm screwed Certainly is cause for concern. From DVN's 0z sounding, too bad that the sub-freezing layer isn't somewhat deeper so that it would sleet instead. Heck, too bad that it isn't sub-freezing through the entire column so that it would snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Certainly is cause for concern. From DVN's 0z sounding, too bad that the sub-freezing layer isn't somewhat deeper so that it would sleet instead. Heck, too bad that it isn't sub-freezing through the entire column so that it would snow. we will go over to snow eventually but the question is if and how much ice we get before we do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'm really interested to see what's going to happen over there and over toward Chicago. 31 at ORD but 34 at MDW. In a marginal situation like this the urban heat island effect could be just enough to prevent major icing in the city. Gonna be close though and might be some pretty variable conditions across relatively small distances. the urban areas of the city almost never have bad icing for the exact reasons you outlined. That said, we're right at or just above freezing here on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 we will go over to snow eventually but the question is if and how much ice we get before we do that. Exactly. In the meantime, it will certainly be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Based on the 0z NAM, it says the heavy stuff will stay south of michigan. Looking at the radar it looks like its headed this way, unless it's going to fall apart as it gets into colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 30 here. Only made it to 32 earlier this afternoon. The precip is knocking on the doorstep. I'm guessing 0.1-0.2" of accretion here. Princeton to Dekalb and Aurora look like the best areas for freezing rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 30 here. Only made it to 32 earlier this afternoon. The precip is knocking on the doorstep. I'm guessing 0.1-0.2" of accretion here. Princeton to Dekalb and Aurora look like the best areas for freezing rain IMO. agree, but don't sleep on ORD, they're at 31 and a loop of the critical thickness shows the surface freezing line still pushing southeast. The actual city should be ok until we go over to sleet or snow late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 the urban areas of the city almost never have bad icing for the exact reasons you outlined. That said, we're right at or just above freezing here on the north side. Better hope your temps don't drop. That warm layer on the DVN sounding is 7000 feet thick. I know convection can alter the environment but it's hard to imagine anything but mostly liquid until way later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 00z NAM looks like it's already busting too low on precip over southeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 0748 PM FREEZING RAIN IOWA CITY 41.66N 91.54W 02/27/2011 E0.13 INCH JOHNSON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WITH THUNDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 out in IA.. KFSW 280135Z AUTO 36014KT 2SM -SN OVC003 00/00 A2963 RMK AO2 P0010 KIOW 280124Z AUTO 02009KT 3SM -FZRA BR OVC005 M01/M02 A2972 RMK AO2 UPB14E18FZRAB18 CIG 004V008 P0000 KCID 280137Z 01014KT 1 1/2SM -FZRA BR OVC004 M02/M03 A2968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 agree, but don't sleep on ORD, they're at 31 and a loop of the critical thickness shows the surface freezing line still pushing southeast. The actual city should be ok until we go over to sleet or snow late. Yeah, the west/northwest side of Chicago look to get in on that too. Even the inner city may have to watch trends later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Based on the 0z NAM, it says the heavy stuff will stay south of michigan. Looking at the radar it looks like its headed this way, unless it's going to fall apart as it gets into colder air. NAM is not handling the northward extent of that pcpn across SE IA well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Pretty sure I just heard some distant thunder. Just starting to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Better hope your temps don't drop. That warm layer on the DVN sounding is 7000 feet thick. I know convection can alter the environment but it's hard to imagine anything but mostly liquid until way later. Yeah, we'll have liquid falling until the tail end. But even if we drop to 30-31, surfaces aren't all that cold like they are during real hardcore freezing rain events where warm air rides over more intense shallow cold. I think west of the city should get clocked pretty hard, maybe .3 or so, but honestly, i'll be shocked if we get much ice outside of thin slushly layers on elevated surfaces. I could be wrong, but that's how things tend to go in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 agree, but don't sleep on ORD, they're at 31 and a loop of the critical thickness shows the surface freezing line still pushing southeast. The actual city should be ok until we go over to sleet or snow late. Ya getting kinda worried about ice here if we drop another degree or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to a warning if the ice holds up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 what thread do I put this in? lol almost 70dbz svr warned cell producing quarter sized hail in a cold environment lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 0756 PM FREEZING RAIN EXLINE 40.65N 92.84W 02/27/2011 E0.20 INCH APPANOOSE IA TRAINED SPOTTER 1/8 TO JUST LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRUAL SINCE 6 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 what thread do I put this in? lol almost 70dbz svr warned cell producing quarter sized hail in a cold environment lol. Yeah just saw that. That is a fine looking cell. I think anything down that way is relevant to this thread as it lets us keep an eye on the convective nature, which could come into play farther north in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 0756 PM FREEZING RAIN EXLINE 40.65N 92.84W 02/27/2011 E0.20 INCH APPANOOSE IA TRAINED SPOTTER 1/8 TO JUST LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRUAL SINCE 6 PM. In two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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