csnavywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I think the writing is on the wall at this point and am expecting over half our QPF to be someting other than plain rain. We're kind of in "fog-land" with all of these variables on the table. 1 or 2 degrees in temp or 30-50 miles in track will make the difference between a substantial event and a non-event for a lot of folks here (including myself). Keep an eye on those balloon soundings, radar and observations. Luckily, it looks like the DVN and ILX soundings will launch before storms make it in there this evening, so we should be able to see how the models are doing with temps aloft before the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What time do you suspect the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor will start seeing snow, assuming they're in the path of the heaviest snows? Most of the models start it around 6, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 FWIW, the HRRR shows a pretty nasty ice storm from southeast Iowa through much of northern Illinois. Has 0.50" of pure freezing rain for the QC by 11pm, with even heavier precip about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 FWIW, the HRRR shows a pretty nasty ice storm from southeast Iowa through much of northern Illinois. Has 0.50" of pure freezing rain for the QC by 11pm, with even heavier precip about to move in. I've been watching that too, i think surfaces will be a little too warm but if things trend cooler it could get wild. The sounding results csnavywx was talking about should be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Not sure how this compares to earlier runs, but the 16z RUC looks pretty far south. Elongated 1000mb in C OH and I'm on the northern fringe of the QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I've been watching that too, i think surfaces will be a little too warm but if things trend cooler it could get wild. The sounding results csnavywx was talking about should be key. Yeah this is shaping up to be a very interesting situation. So much depends on the smallest variables. There could be large differences in the event outcome over just a countywide area. lol @ the forecast for the QC. Just shows how difficult of a forecast this is. .TONIGHT...BLUSTERY. RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The RUC is not a model that should be taken seriously past 6 hours or so. It's governing equations are **** past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Somewhat off topic but darn interesting: the final matches of the WGC Accenture Match Play in golf are postponed til early in the afternoon due to a dusting of SNOW! This is in Marana, which I think is just north of Phoenix. The Phoenix Open a couple weeks ago had several frost delays. What is with the Arizona cold? It would be funny if we don't get any snow, and Tucson gets a dusting. What a slap in the face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The RUC is not a model that should be taken seriously past 6 hours or so. It's governing equations are **** past that. Aside from the GHD blizzard, it's been pretty terrible. But I find it interesting that it seems to be SE of the other global/mesoscale guidance, since its bias is to wrap things up to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What time do you suspect the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor will start seeing snow, assuming they're in the path of the heaviest snows? Most of the models start it around 6, correct? I don't think the snow will kick in until after 3-4 am to be honest. Too much warm air aloft. A period of plain rain and thunderstorms followed by some sleet and freezing rain up until that 3-4 am timeframe looks best atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't think the snow will kick in until after 3-4 am to be honest. Too much warm air aloft. A period of plain rain and thunderstorms followed by some sleet and freezing rain up until that 3-4 am timeframe looks best atm. agree, looks like any realy cold air advection is just getting into far nw iowa, so we have a ways to go. Things will get hairy an hour or two before the morning rush starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't think the snow will kick in until after 3-4 am to be honest. Too much warm air aloft. A period of plain rain and thunderstorms followed by some sleet and freezing rain up until that 3-4 am timeframe looks best atm. How come the NAM had a nice 6 hour period of all snow in Southern Wisconsin a couple runs ago? The 0C line was in Northern Illinois at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 How come the NAM had a nice 6 hour period of all snow in Southern Wisconsin a couple runs ago? The 0C line was in Northern Illinois at the time. Remember when looking at model forecasts the precip accumulation shown is what has already fallen during that period, while the temps displayed are at the end of that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Remember when looking at model forecasts the precip accumulation shown is what has already fallen during that period, while the temps displayed are at the end of that period. I guess so, though fwiw MKE has our temps getting to 32 for a high. At least here we shouldn't be seeing any rain, maybe freezing rain or sleet at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 looking forward to the boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 based on the NMM, things get wintery around 3-4am across northern illinois. ARW similar on timing and has a nice band of snow after that along with some nice omega both have a band of mod/heavy snow over N. Ill by 6am, morning rush as serious surprise potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Euro time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 based on the NMM, things get wintery around 3-4am across northern illinois. ARW similar on timing and has a nice band of snow after that along with some nice omega Pretty impressive. You can even see a change in the way the precip looks after the changeover. Goes from cellular looking to a much smoother distribution of reflectivity. If that pans out there would be a nice period of SN+ on the backside. The main question is just how cold will the surface be during the first few waves of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Pretty impressive. You can even see a change in the way the precip looks after the changeover. Goes from cellular looking to a much smoother distribution of reflectivity. If that pans out there would be a nice period of SN+ on the backside. The main question is just how cold will the surface be during the first few waves of precip. yeah, and you can pretty much count on a curveball with all the convection in the area. This has turned out to be an interesting to event to track after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 looking forward to the boomers Pulling some ridiculous amounts of lift off of that 12Z NAM run with BUFKIT. 30-50 microbars, plus 7-9C/km lapse rates this evening as that EML attempts to advect north over the warm front. Definitely going to get very, very messy tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe hailers with that initial batch of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Pulling some ridiculous amounts of lift off of that 12Z NAM run with BUFKIT. 30-50 microbars, plus 7-9C/km lapse rates this evening as that EML attempts to advect north over the warm front. Definitely going to get very, very messy tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe hailers with that initial batch of storms. i'm down for my second hail storm of february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 how's this looking f or southern wisconsin....thought we were looking good, but how far south is it going now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 As a side note, the sounding from DVN this morning showed a warm layer that was 2-3C warmer than the NAM initialized with, but about 2C cooler in the cold layer. Hopefully we'll get some special 18Z soundings today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Euro time? South of everything. The .25 line cuts through Chicago and the .10 just clips Racine with less north and west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 i'm down for my second hail storm of february. +1 that goes for me too. between this and the tornado potential down south, its going to be a gret time tonight with atleast 8 internet tabs of weather stuff open lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 i think MKE busted out the 1 county WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Pulling some ridiculous amounts of lift off of that 12Z NAM run with BUFKIT. 30-50 microbars, plus 7-9C/km lapse rates this evening as that EML attempts to advect north over the warm front. Definitely going to get very, very messy tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe hailers with that initial batch of storms. SVR out in the Bloomington area for quarter size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 HRRR slowly shifting south. Looks like the Euro is more in line with the RUC. Looks like the RUC may end up being correct again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 skillig blog A modified arctic airmass that is slow to retreat will clash with a potent storm system tonight over the Chicago area. The latest round of computer model guidance that arrived here at the WGN Weather Center this morning confirms our suspicion that some of Chicago's north and northwest suburbs could end up with a significant amount of ice or snow by Monday morning. Communities in Lake, McHenry, Boone, Winnebago, Kenosha, Walworth and northern Kane counties will be most susceptible to a period of heavy freezing rain or heavy snow. South of these counties, the main precipitation type is expected to be rain with a change over to snow or sleet late tonight. Thunder and lightning are once again expected to accompany some of the heaviest precipitation between 10PM and 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 South of everything. The .25 line cuts through Chicago and the .10 just clips Racine with less north and west of there. What a joke! The NAM is on my list as a terrible model now as well. Little shifts I can understand, but having MKE in the bullseye 24 hours out with potentially 10" or more of snow, then in actuality getting a nothing event (if that is what happens) is enough to sour my opinion of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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