dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ok now call me crazy To me it looks the highest temps around here is 34-35 RAIN/SN/Sleet. Local TV station just said near 50 with thunderstorms So am I clueless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Boy, the models have been awful with these last two storms even within 24 hours of the event. The northern extent of the precip has been flip-flopping all over the damn place. Earlier yesterday the NAM had nothing in Iowa, then the 00z had heavy precip up as far as CR, then the 06z moved it even farther nw to put me in the middle of it, but now the 12z goes back south with very little here. I don't know what the heck to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 compared to what was being shown 3 days back, this just isn't going to be anywhere near as jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ok now call me crazy To me it looks the highest temps around here is 34-35 RAIN/SN/Sleet. Local TV station just said near 50 with thunderstorms So am I clueless? Mother nature hates when we look at the models so she will do w/e it takes to make us stop looking at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Easy 5 inches here now. WTF? Caught by surprise here again its been a very very tough year for Env Canada. they have an F grade here in montreal and ottawa as well. sounds theyve had a tough year in toronto too. congrats on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Mother nature hates when we look at the models so she will do w/e it takes to make us stop looking at them. Interesting answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ok now call me crazy To me it looks the highest temps around here is 34-35 RAIN/SN/Sleet. Local TV station just said near 50 with thunderstorms So am I clueless? I don't think 50F is happening anywhere in Michigan today. I think it's a guarantee the low is going to stay south of the state line, so no warm sector in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 50 w/ Thunderstorm, WTF Ok now call me crazy To me it looks the highest temps around here is 34-35 RAIN/SN/Sleet. Local TV station just said near 50 with thunderstorms So am I clueless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't think 50F is happening anywhere in Michigan today. I think it's a guarantee the low is going to stay south of the state line, so no warm sector in Michigan. If enough moisture gets up here, someone locally could have a surprise snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't think 50F is happening anywhere in Michigan today. I think it's a guarantee the low is going to stay south of the state line, so no warm sector in Michigan. just updated...this is a nowcast event Tonight: A chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then rain between 7pm and 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet after 4am. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 35. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northeast. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Monday: A chance of snow, freezing drizzle, and sleet before 7am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 30 by 5pm. North northwest wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 16. North northwest wind between 13 and 16 mph becoming light. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 GFS is coming in south. Looks like little snow at hr 18 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12z NAM clown map for giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 GFS is coming in south. Looks like little snow at hr 18 so far. Just when I thought the NW trend was back after the feb 1 storm, the se trend is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 50 w/ Thunderstorm, WTF guess what station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 HR 21 and 24 hit N. IL. Pretty close to the NAM. MKE hardly gets anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 DeKalb area gets hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 LOL this is ridiculous. A little more SE and we get some snow while local station is calling for 50 and thunderstorms. Gotta love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 LOL this is ridiculous. A little more SE and we get some snow while local station is calling for 50 and thunderstorms. Gotta love weather. Let me clear this up...She said near 50 with some thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Let me clear this up...She said near 50 with some thunderstorms I know I watched it. Fill in weekend mets. Talented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Let me clear this up...She said near 50 with some thunderstorms Starr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 HR 21 and 24 hit N. IL. Pretty close to the NAM. MKE hardly gets anything. Bullseye!! Lol this one is going to be such a small strip of snow.. Fingers crossed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 wow, went from a possible severe event to possible heavy snow in like 3 days. spring ftw. EDIT: i think LOT needs some kind of winter headline north of I88, the surprise factor could be big with this one after all the rain and t-storm talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I know I watched it. Fill in weekend mets. Talented. you would think some of the regs with there reputation on the line will order some changes to that junk of a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yesterdays waa snowfall dropped only 0.6" here, so for once, my area of SE MI relatively got the shaft lol. That was more or less what was expected, but it just seemed hard to believe this winter It was a definite overperformer in Flint/Saginaw area with 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 wow, went from a possible severe event to possible heavy snow in like 3 days. spring ftw. EDIT: i think LOT needs some kind of winter headline north of I88, the surprise factor could be big with this one after all the rain and t-storm talk Or winter FTW. But yeah I agree with headlines being warranted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yesterdays waa snowfall dropped only 0.6" here, so for once, my area of SE MI relatively got the shaft lol. That was more or less what was expected, but it just seemed hard to believe this winter It was a definite overperformer in Flint/Saginaw area with 4-6". jolly surprise up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 not your typical heavy rain low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yesterdays waa snowfall dropped only 0.6" here, so for once, my area of SE MI relatively got the shaft lol. That was more or less what was expected, but it just seemed hard to believe this winter It was a definite overperformer in Flint/Saginaw area with 4-6". Yea we only got about 1-2 here in macomb. Flint and saginaw were left out with a few of the storms earlier this winter so everything evens out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 nice long vectors but you can tell the northern cutoff will be sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 For LAF, seems the heavy rain/flood threat is moving south and east of here. I'm inclined to believe the 12z GFS more so than the NAM at this point with regards to QPF. Which is good, as the Wabash is running high already. INC045-121-157-165-171-271944-/O.EXT.KIND.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LAFI3.1.ER.110218T1002Z.110219T1430Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 245 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2011 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WABASH RIVER AT LAFAYETTE. * AT 1:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 14.6 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * AT 15.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS APPROACHING WARREN CR 350 N IN THE BLACK ROCK PRESERVE AREA. WILLIAMSPORT ROAD IN FOUNTAIN COUNTY MAY BEGIN TO FLOOD. IN LATE DECEMBER 2008...THE ROAD FLOODED WHEN THE RIVER CRESTED AT 17.2 FEET ON THE LAFAYETTE GAGE. Current point and click for LAF, which is hopefully too aggressive.: Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 41. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 1pm. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 36 by 5pm. North northwest wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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