Feb. 26-Mar. 1st Winter Storm Potential

[Moneyman]

[Stebo]

nothing happens. nothing really to see here in my drunk opinion like i said to you. sure, hit some miracle chance in sws but I don't live in detroit where the snow is going to snow.

up to 59" with today's snow even though money man stole me the jackpot. nice little pack out there built again even though I missed the bigs last weekend.

Glad I didn't change my avatar.. Maybe it still has some power in it even after the 20" blizzard and packers

I don't know if you are trying reverse psychology or if you really think that Detroit is going to get it.

[BowMeHunter]

I don't know if you are trying reverse psychology or if you really think that Detroit is going to get it.

reverse psych some for sure after going through the models at 0z. I'm almost more worried now looking at 6z nam that this is a congrats MSP, la crossse and money over any chance me and toilet have. 12z will be interesting for sure... ni ni

[Chicago Storm]

reverse psych some for sure after going through the models at 0z. I'm almost more worried now looking at 6z nam that this is a congrats MSP, la crossse and money over any chance me and toilet have. 12z will be interesting for sure... ni ni

[Ajdos]

lmfao

[Chicago Storm]

American WRF FTW.

[Thundersnow12]

American WRF FTW.

Don't you sleep? lol

[Thundersnow12]

[Stebo]

I'm pretty sure chi and thunder never sleep.

Also shift that snow zone about 150 miles south and then we are talking

[IWXwx]

4.5" through 02.20. Snow's lightened up a fair bit now and radar returns are starting to diminish. Complete redemption for Friday's bust however.

6.8 to go

[Stebo]

I just need one more jackpot clipper to hit the GTA

[ILSNOW]

LOL at 12z Nam comes south and now has chicago area in the bullseye at 24 hours.

[Chicago WX]

12z NAM says hello Ottumwa to cyclone's BY up through RFD and the north suburbs of Chicago.

[wisconsinwx]

MKX still going conservative with 1-2" of snow in the Milwaukee area after rain and freezing rain changes to snow. Oddly, they have a high of 32 and a low of 25 today and tonight, yet they think the precip will start as rain and freezing rain. They do mention the possibility of 2 to 3 inch per hour rates of wet thundersnow.

[wisconsinwx]

12z NAM says hello Ottumwa to cyclone's BY up through RFD and the north suburbs of Chicago.

[Moneyman]

I think we won't know what's gonna happen until this actually develops. Gonna be a nightmare of a forecast for local offices.

[wisconsinwx]

I think we won't know what's gonna happen until this actually develops. Gonna be a nightmare of a forecast for local offices.

Yeah. Looking at the American WRX Model shown further up on this page, it shows a 20 mile wide (north to south) strip of 2 to 12 inches of snow, with the regions around it getting no snow. Very fine line between getting nothing, getting a lot of snow, and getting a mix/rain.

[panhandlehook]

I think we won't know what's gonna happen until this actually develops. Gonna be a nightmare of a forecast for local offices.

Yep!

[Moneyman]

HRRR and RUC are world apart at hr 15. HRRR has 30+ dbz already in IA while RUC is south and weaker.

[Chicago WX]

4.5" through 02.20. Snow's lightened up a fair bit now and radar returns are starting to diminish. Complete redemption for Friday's bust however.

Congrats Mike!

Took you awhile, but we're pretty much in a virtual tie with snowfall to date now.

[dmc76]

12Z NAM crushes Chicago through Flint. Im starting think Northern Suburbs of Detroit has a shot of some +SN

[A-L-E-K]

lulz, what an odd little event, looks like a razor stripe of mod snow might actually go down.

[roardog]

12Z NAM crushes Chicago through Flint. Im starting think Northern Suburbs of Detroit has a shot of some +SN

What did you guys get last night? It was definitely an over achiever here. We received about 4 inches.

[Chicago WX]

Not that I'm putting complete faith into the 12z NAM, but mix/sleet to snow for ORD? Mid levels are pretty torchy...

 Station ID: KORD Lat:   41.97 Long:  -87.90 Elevation:   203.0                                 
NAM Model Run: 12Z FEB 27, 2011                                                                

Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr   
Sfc Prs(mb):     985.8  985.2  986.3  983.8  982.2  981.7  977.9  977.7  980.7  985.7  990.6   
Mean SLP (mb):  1011.7 1011.2 1011.8 1009.3 1007.6 1007.2 1003.3 1002.9 1006.4 1011.3 1016.4   
2m agl Tmp (F):   28.9   28.8   32.1   33.2   32.3   32.4   32.0   31.2   29.5   29.0   29.9   
2m AGL Dewpt(F):  27.3   24.9   27.9   31.3   31.2   31.6   30.7   29.2   27.9   27.6   23.7   
2m agl RH (%):      94     85     84     93     96     97     95     92     94     94     77   
10m agl W  Dir:    299    163    193     53     45     42     35     21      8    351    347   
10m agl Spd(kt):     4      4      6      3      7      7     14     18     16     15     15   
3hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.04   0.05   0.04   0.35   0.26   0.16   0.04   
AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.04   0.09   0.13   0.48   0.74   0.91   0.95   
Precip H20 (in):   0.4    0.4    0.4    0.6    0.7    0.7    0.8    0.7    0.6    0.5    0.2   
Best LI     (C):   8.4    7.0    6.3    1.1    1.1    0.3    1.5    7.9   11.4   13.5   18.0   
700mb VV(-ub/s):  -2.7    3.5    4.1    1.0    0.9   15.6    3.8    5.6   10.5    3.5   -2.4   
Thk1000-500mb(m)5396.5 5420.0 5433.4 5451.2 5477.5 5480.2 5488.4 5461.1 5397.1 5332.9 5303.2   
Thk1000-850mb(m)1278.7 1290.2 1293.6 1304.3 1310.7 1312.8 1308.0 1293.6 1282.6 1276.5 1270.6   
Thk850-700mb(m):1553.1 1556.4 1560.2 1566.8 1575.6 1575.6 1576.1 1564.4 1534.0 1514.6 1503.6   
Heat Index (F):     29     29     32     33     32     32     32     31     29     29     30   

1000mb GPH (m):      93     89     94     74     60     57     26     22     50     90    130   

975mb GPH (m):     294    290    297    278    264    261    230    226    253    291    331   
975mb Temp (C):   -3.4   -3.1   -1.2    0.0   -0.5   -0.2   -0.1   -0.6   -1.9   -2.6   -2.9   
975mb Dewpt(C):   -5.4   -4.5   -3.1   -1.6   -0.9   -0.6   -0.7   -1.7   -2.7   -3.3   -6.2   
975mb RH (%):       86     90     87     89     97     97     96     92     94     95     78   
975mb Dir:         289    161    194     61     47     44     35     21      9    353    349   
975mb Speed(kt):     5      4      7      4      9      8     12     14     16     19     20   

950mb GPH (m):     498    495    503    485    472    469    437    432    459    497    536   
950mb Temp (C):   -5.3   -5.2   -3.3   -1.8   -0.5   -0.2   -1.8   -2.6   -3.8   -4.3   -4.9   
950mb Dewpt(C):   -6.2   -5.4   -3.7   -2.1   -0.7   -0.2   -1.8   -2.9   -4.3   -4.7   -6.8   
950mb RH (%):       93     99     97     98     99    100    100     98     96     97     86   
950mb Dir:         302    167    194    135     80     60     39     24     13    358    350   
950mb Speed(kt):     5      6      8      3     10     15     25     30     28     28     24   

925mb GPH (m):     707    704    713    698    686    683    649    643    669    706    744   
925mb Temp (C):   -6.3   -6.1   -4.5   -0.8    1.5    1.5   -1.2   -4.4   -5.6   -5.9   -7.0   
925mb Dewpt(C):   -6.3   -7.0   -4.9   -2.0    1.1    1.5   -1.2   -4.5   -6.2   -6.6   -8.0   
925mb RH (%):      100     94     97     91     97    100    100    100     95     95     92   
925mb Dir:         277    213    202    211    167     67     43     27     18      6    354   
925mb Speed(kt):     8      9     16     13      6      7     25     36     34     33     26   

900mb GPH (m):     921    919    929    917    907    904    869    859    883    920    958   
900mb Temp (C):   -6.9   -3.8   -3.6    0.9    2.6    2.9    1.3   -3.2   -6.2   -7.5   -8.4   
900mb Dewpt(C):   -7.0   -7.6   -6.4   -2.3    2.6    2.9    1.3   -4.0   -7.0   -8.3  -10.3   
900mb RH (%):       99     74     81     79    100    100    100     94     94     94     86   
900mb Dir:         270    248    215    226    203    156     63     29     26     13      6   
900mb Speed(kt):    15     13     20     23     13      6     18     33     37     35     28   

875mb GPH (m):    1141   1144   1153   1144   1135   1133   1097   1083   1104   1139   1176   
875mb Temp (C):   -4.8    2.2    0.2    1.8    3.2    4.2    4.4   -0.5   -4.4   -6.8   -9.5   
875mb Dewpt(C):   -7.9   -7.3   -6.8   -4.0    3.2    4.2    4.4   -1.6   -5.2   -7.7  -13.0   
875mb RH (%):       79     50     59     65    100    100    100     92     94     93     76   
875mb Dir:         271    261    223    232    209    203     93     26     22     11      1   
875mb Speed(kt):    24     21     20     24     21     16      5     25     32     28     25   

850mb GPH (m):    1372   1379   1387   1378   1371   1370   1334   1316   1333   1366   1400   
850mb Temp (C):    0.7    4.7    3.9    2.6    3.6    4.8    5.6    0.3   -3.4   -6.2   -7.0   
850mb Dewpt(C):   -7.0   -8.3   -7.1   -0.8    3.6    4.8    5.6   -0.2   -3.9   -6.9  -20.8   
850mb RH (%):       56     38     44     78    100    100    100     96     96     95     33   
850mb Dir:         273    266    230    243    218    232    231     46     17      2      0   
850mb Speed(kt):    33     28     19     25     27     24      8     14     28     28     32   

825mb GPH (m):    1612   1622   1630   1620   1614   1613   1579   1555   1569   1600   1633   
825mb Temp (C):    2.4    3.5    3.7    3.1    4.1    4.1    6.9    1.0   -2.8   -6.4   -6.9   
825mb Dewpt(C):   -9.2   -8.5   -8.4    2.9    4.1    4.1    5.4    1.0   -3.3   -7.3  -26.3   
825mb RH (%):       42     41     41     99    100    100     90    100     96     94     20   
825mb Dir:         275    271    231    246    226    237    219     81     10    355    358   
825mb Speed(kt):    41     31     20     30     31     22     20      4     23     29     31   

800mb GPH (m):    1860   1870   1879   1870   1864   1864   1832   1803   1814   1840   1873   
800mb Temp (C):    1.2    1.7    2.7    3.3    4.2    4.8    5.7    1.7   -2.6   -6.6   -7.7   
800mb Dewpt(C):  -12.3   -7.8   -9.2    3.3    4.2    4.8    3.4    1.7   -2.8   -7.5  -31.6   
800mb RH (%):       36     49     41    100    100    100     85    100     98     94     13   
800mb Dir:         276    279    230    248    232    226    221    211      6    349    351   
800mb Speed(kt):    46     34     24     35     32     26     25     10     18     28     31   

775mb GPH (m):    2115   2125   2135   2127   2123   2123   2091   2060   2065   2088   2119   
775mb Temp (C):    0.7    0.1    1.3    2.1    3.7    4.2    4.0    2.1   -3.4   -6.7   -8.2   
775mb Dewpt(C):  -12.5   -8.4  -11.4    2.1    3.7    4.2    1.1    2.1   -3.7   -7.4  -35.9   
775mb RH (%):       37     53     38    100    100    100     81    100     98     94      9   
775mb Dir:         277    275    232    247    232    218    221    224      3    340    343   
775mb Speed(kt):    51     36     31     41     32     32     25     25     14     26     30   

750mb GPH (m):    2378   2387   2398   2391   2389   2390   2357   2325   2324   2344   2373   
750mb Temp (C):   -0.8   -0.9    0.2    0.8    2.3    2.2    2.0    2.2   -4.1   -7.0   -9.1   
750mb Dewpt(C):  -12.2  -10.9  -14.2   -0.7   -0.2    2.0   -0.6    2.2   -4.5   -7.8  -36.8   
750mb RH (%):       42     47     33     89     83     98     83    100     97     94      9   
750mb Dir:         278    263    237    246    236    228    217    230    356    334    337   
750mb Speed(kt):    54     38     40     47     38     34     24     40     10     23     28   

725mb GPH (m):    2647   2657   2669   2664   2663   2663   2629   2598   2591   2608   2634   
725mb Temp (C):   -2.4   -2.0   -1.2    0.8    3.1    1.9    0.0    1.0   -4.9   -7.8  -10.1   
725mb Dewpt(C):  -12.8  -13.4  -19.0  -11.6  -11.7   -6.4   -1.5    1.0   -5.2   -8.7  -35.8   
725mb RH (%):       45     41     25     39     33     54     90    100     97     93     11   
725mb Dir:         277    256    239    246    248    243    216    234    317    326    330   
725mb Speed(kt):    57     44     48     53     49     32     25     52      7     22     27

[Thundersnow12]

lulz, what an odd little event, looks like a razor stripe of mod snow might actually go down.

a pretty big difference from that 12z run a few days ago but we somehow get the same outcome if not more snow on this run lol

million dollar question is, does it happen or keep trending a tad more south and east.

0z run had it from eastern IA to MKX to central MI.

[A-L-E-K]

6z NAM crushes Milwaukee. At HR 27 it has .5 QPF of all snow from E. IA into S. WI. Farther north then 0z by a little bit as well.

i'm coming around to the idea of a thin snow stripe on the north fringe, but i think it will end up southwest of Wisconsin, just a hunch, but from what i've seen the trend has been less amped and south for quite some time with this event.

[dmc76]

What did you guys get last night? It was definitely an over achiever here. We received about 4 inches.

3" It was an over achiever

[Moneyman]

NAM has been all over the place with it the last 3 runs. 0z had it from extreme N. IL to S. WI 06z had it from my area down into S. WI and now 12z is south of the last 3 runs.

HRRR would probably be the most northern model looking at hr 15, RUC would be south.

Who knows.

[Thundersnow12]

lets see how much snow we can get in february lol

[A-L-E-K]

a pretty big difference from that 12z run a few days ago but we somehow get the same outcome if not more snow on this run lol

million dollar question is, does it happen or keep trending a tad more south and east.

0z run had it from eastern IA to MKX to central MI.

none of the models seem to have a great grip on this particular aspect and the NAM has been the most agressive, just all over with placemen, ORD, then way south, then way west, so it's hard to take too seriously. Either way the super amped up system advertised a day or two back isn't happening, so i'd lean south. New NMM should be interesting. Either way we're talking about a razor thin line of snow.