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Feb. 26-Mar. 1st Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Light to moderate snow continues to fall in downtown Toronto. Just over 3" has fallen so far with more to come. A nice surprise and somewhat makes up for Friday's disappointment.

3.3" here as of midnight. 0.3" from this morning, and 3" from this evening. Borderline +SN right now. Torontonian said he had 3" as of a couple of hours ago.

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3.3" here as of midnight. 0.3" from this morning, and 3" from this evening. Borderline +SN right now. Torontonian said he had 3" as of a couple of hours ago.

I was using the eye-ball method, so I'm probably underestimating the snowfall measurement. Environment Canada has updated the forecast for Toronto and it has increased the snowfall amounts to 2-4" (5-10 cm).

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GFS Bufkit:

MKE:

HR: 24: 31, 2, 0.01

HR: 27: 32, 1, 0.07

HR: 30: 29, -3, 0.57

HR 33: 26, -5, 0.11

FZR: 0.08

SNOW: 0.68

Total QPF: 0.76

ORD:

HR 21: 35, 5, 0.01

HR 24: 34, 7, 0.03

HR 27: 34, 6, 0.16

HR 30: 32, 1, 0.27

HR 33: 29. -2, 0.06

HR 36: 26, -4, 0.03

FZR/Rain: 0.47

Snow: 0.09

Total QPF: 0.56

HR 27-30 period could go either way.

Dubuque:

HR 24: 31, 2, 0.01

HR 27: 29, -2, 0.11

HR 30: 27, -5, 0.21

HR 33: 22, -5, 0.02

Total QPF: .35

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I was using the eye-ball method, so I'm probably underestimating the snowfall measurement. Environment Canada has updated the forecast for Toronto and it has increased the snowfall amounts to 2-4" (5-10 cm).

Yeah, I noticed that. Probably still too low. Most of us will at least finish with 4".

Funny thing about the snow is that visibility was lower a couple of hours ago when it was that granier snow, but accumulation rates were meager. This snow we're getting now, aside from the last 15 minutes, which is high end moderate by my estimation, has been light with higher visibilities, but the huge flake size has made for excellent accumulation efficiency.

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Yeah, I noticed that. Probably still too low. Most of us will at least finish with 4".

Funny thing about the snow is that visibility was lower a couple of hours ago when it was that granier snow, but accumulation rates were meager. This snow we're getting now, aside from the last 15 minutes, which is high end moderate by my estimation, has been light with higher visibilities, but the huge flake size has made for excellent accumulation efficiency.

I think there is some lake enhancement going on. The winds were from the ESE for the last few hours.

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EURO has gone NW quite a bit as well. MKE gets .3-.4 QPF maybe? of all snow.

Racine is in the .5-.75 range.

Basically the same idea as the GFS, maybe a touch south of that. Bottom line, this should be a decent event. Maybe a WWA, maybe a WSW, depending on moisture. And, of course, last minute track tweaks may change this.

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Moneyman, what do you think the nightshift will do? Perhaps a WWA, with the possibility of a last minute upgrade to a warning, should 6+ amounts continue to look more likely?

Bow and I was just discussing this. The best thing for them to do is wait for the 12z models and see what they show and then decide on a warning or WAA etc. A 30 mile shift in either way is going to make a huge difference. Plus this is the only run that has been showing this. Maybe issue a SWS and highlight the possibility of a winter storm.

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Bow and I was just discussing this. The best thing for them to do is wait for the 12z models and see what they show and then decide on a warning or WAA etc. A 30 mile shift in either way is going to make a huge difference. Plus this is the only run that has been showing this. Maybe issue a SWS and highlight the possibility of a winter storm.

That's probably better.

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Bow and I was just discussing this. The best thing for them to do is wait for the 12z models and see what they show and then decide on a warning or WAA etc. A 30 mile shift in either way is going to make a huge difference. Plus this is the only run that has been showing this. Maybe issue a SWS and highlight the possibility of a winter storm.

nothing happens. nothing really to see here in my drunk opinion like i said to you. sure, hit some miracle chance in sws but I don't live in detroit where the snow is going to snow.

up to 59" with today's snow even though money man stole me the jackpot. nice little pack out there built again even though I missed the bigs last weekend.

Glad I didn't change my avatar.. Maybe it still has some power in it even after the 20" blizzard and packers :popcorn:

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