Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 0z NAM: MKE: (2M, 850, QPF) HR 27: 30.8. 1.6, 0.13 HR 30: 31.3, -0.2, 0.40 HR 33: 28.7, -1.8, 0.53 HR 36: 26.4, -2.5, 0.08 FZR: 0.13 Snow: 1.01 Total QPF: 1.14 MSN: HR 27: 26.6, 0.5, 0.06 HR 30: 26.7, -1.8, 0.27 HR 33: 24.9, -3.7, 0.14 HR 36: 21.8, -4.9, 0.03 FZR: 0.06 Snow: 0.44 ORD: HR 24: 32.0, 6.3, 0.04 HR 27: 32.7, 8.1, 0.09 HR 30: 33.0, 8.4, 0.08 HR 33: 32.6, 0.7, 0.35 HR 36: 29.2, -0.6, 0.05 FZR: 0 Rain: .61 Snow: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 0z NAM: MKE: (2M, 850, QPF) HR 27: 30.8. 1.6, 0.13 HR 30: 31.3, -0.2, 0.40 HR 33: 28.7, -1.8, 0.53 HR 36: 26.4, -2.5, 0.08 FZR: 0.13 Snow: 1.01 Total QPF: 1.14 Moneyman gonna get dumped on again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I live in Fond du Lac, which is 60 miles north. I get like .21 QPF of snow, but not nearly as much as MKE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Including what fell this morning, we're up to 1.5" for the day. Snowing at a rate of 1/3-1/2 inch/hour. Dude i have about 3 inches where i am downtown. You called this yesterday, with the lake enhancement. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 pretty good period of FZDZ going on here with a solid glaze of ice on the trees already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 pretty good period of FZDZ going on here with a solid glaze of ice on the trees already. ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CST SUNDAY. * TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ICY PATCHES MAY DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. * OTHER IMPACTS...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON LIGHTLY TRAVELED OR UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS...ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED BRIDGE DECKS AND OVERPASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Dude i have about 3 inches where i am downtown. You called this yesterday, with the lake enhancement. Congrats! Good stuff! I'm over 2" now definitely. Returns extend all the way back into lower MI so we've got several hours left. Could be some nice compensation for yesterday's dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The 0z NAM appears to be coming in with a period fo FZRA for NW. Missouri, C/E. Iowa, NW. Illinois and S. Wisconsin tomorrow evening/night. Looks like it does turn to snow for many of the areas mentioned, especially C. Michigan. The GFS affects the same areas with wintery precip, but it appears to be more SN than FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yup, MKE gets .5 QPF of snow it looks like. HR 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 HR 36: Total QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MKE takes notice AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 945 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011 BASED ON 18Z RUNS AND NEW 00Z RUN OF THE NAM...FELT IT NECESSARY TO BUMP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AND IT IS HARD TO IGNORE. THE NEW 00Z NAM LOOKS LIKE AN OVERCORRECTION. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A VERY DEEP ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING UNDER A STRONG COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN RESULTING IN QUITE A VARIETY OF MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE IS DRIBBLING IN THIS EVENING...SO THE OVERNIGHT CREW WILL FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Getting more interesting again for eastern Iowa, but I'm still close to the edge of the precip. I could get some decent ice/snow or not much of anything if this evening's models are overnorthing the day before the storm like they did with the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Could be an interesting night for MKE. .5 QPF in 6 hours, could be a good 1 inch per hr rates. Be interesting to see if the EURO trends this way as well. NW trend ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 00z runs so far are much drier for LAF...precip maxes north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The GFS affects the same areas with wintery precip, but it appears to be more SN than FZRA. I would imagine we would have a brief period of SN looking at the GFS. IOW-DBQ-MKX to central MI get a nice band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Looks like between 2-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 0z NAM: MKE: (2M, 850, QPF) HR 27: 30.8. 1.6, 0.13 HR 30: 31.3, -0.2, 0.40 HR 33: 28.7, -1.8, 0.53 HR 36: 26.4, -2.5, 0.08 FZR: 0.13 Snow: 1.01 Total QPF: 1.14 MSN: HR 27: 26.6, 0.5, 0.06 HR 30: 26.7, -1.8, 0.27 HR 33: 24.9, -3.7, 0.14 HR 36: 21.8, -4.9, 0.03 FZR: 0.06 Snow: 0.44 ORD: HR 24: 32.0, 6.3, 0.04 HR 27: 32.7, 8.1, 0.09 HR 30: 33.0, 8.4, 0.08 HR 33: 32.6, 0.7, 0.35 HR 36: 29.2, -0.6, 0.05 FZR: 0 Rain: .61 Snow: 0 After seeing this my mouth was agape. I'd easily take a half, maybe even a third of that. Today and tonight we had a nice steady light to moderate snow, which probably amounted to a total of 3 or 4 inches, including last night. I already considered that a bonus. Anything close to this, though, and I'd have nothing to complain about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 If the EURO comes on board, you guys would be in great shape. GFS is easily 6+ inches, and NAM would give you 8-10+ as well. FYI, RUC is coming in pretty far north (I know it isn't great 24 hours out, but meh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 If the EURO comes on board, you guys would be in great shape. GFS is easily 6+ inches, and NAM would give you 8-10+ as well. FYI, RUC is coming in pretty far north (I know it isn't great 24 hours out, but meh) It really is hard for me to believe such a dramatic shift is possible, but I guess that's weather. 6 or 7 hours ago, 20% of mixy precip. Now, potential for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 WRF-NNM gives MKE .75 QPF and it should be snow. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ that's the link btw. 2M temps are easily cold enough for snow, and most of S. WI receives at least .25 QPF. What a good change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ that's the link btw. 2M temps are easily cold enough for snow, and most of S. WI receives at least .25 QPF. What a good change. I really don't know what to think. Even with a perfect track, I had been thinking the best we could have hoped for would be a few inches of wind driven snow due to marginal cold air. ETA: I'm not even sure I would've checked this thread until tomorrow. I had given up any hope and was content with the WAA snow we had tonight. Now I don't think I will be able to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MKE AFD from this afternoon: MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUN NT WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN GRTLKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON MON WITH THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EWD. FAR SE WI IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE EVENINGS AS THE 850 MB COOL FROPA OCCURS. THUS TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY 20-50 POPS IN FAR SRN WI. TEMP PROFILES ARE COMPLEX BUT OVERALL A LGT MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. Now they may need to issue winter storm warnings for the SE part of the state lol. GEM comes in line with the rest of the models. Dropping .5+ QPF of snow in the S. part of WI. HR 36: Should be all snow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MKE AFD from this afternoon: MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUN NT WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN GRTLKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON MON WITH THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EWD. FAR SE WI IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE EVENINGS AS THE 850 MB COOL FROPA OCCURS. THUS TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY 20-50 POPS IN FAR SRN WI. TEMP PROFILES ARE COMPLEX BUT OVERALL A LGT MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. Now they may need to issue winter storm warnings for the SE part of the state lol. GEM comes in line with the rest of the models. Dropping .5+ QPF of snow in the S. part of WI. HR 36: Should be all snow imo. I wonder if Bow's even going to find out about this shift until tomorrow. It would be funny if he shows up right at the onset and asks what the heck is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 He probably won't lol, but who knows. GEM/NAM/GFS/NMM would all give you guys at least 5+ inches with the NMM and NAM giving you at least 7. Gonna be interesting to see if the EURO follows at all. I need about a 30 mile shift NW here with the GFS. NAM and NMM hit me decent though as is, so who knows. Gonna be a tough forecast for the MKE office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 He probably won't lol, but who knows. GEM/NAM/GFS/NMM would all give you guys at least 5+ inches with the NMM and NAM giving you at least 7. Gonna be interesting to see if the EURO follows at all. I need about a 30 mile shift NW here with the GFS, NAM and NMM hit me decent though as is, so who knows. Gonna be a tough forecast for the MKE office. Good luck with this. I hope you can cash in decently as well. It looks like a relatively thin strip of 6+ inches, so we still may need a lot of things to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting changes this evening. The precip shield has shifted northwest, but the temps seem a bit cooler as well. Someone from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin may get a nice surprise snow from this. There also seems like there's a growing concern for a zone of icing a bit further southeast. Here near the QC it looks like we start as rain, but may go over to a period of glazing. Don't think we'll see much snow here, as mid level temps stay a bit too warm until most of the precip is gone. Cedar Rapids/Iowa City to Madison look pretty good for some accumulating snows at this point. Since things still seem to be shifting around a bit I'd wait until the 12z runs before getting too excited either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Not to go overboard with posts, but the Euro runs now become as critical as ever. I may live or die by the Euro coming out in a little over an hour. Then again, the Euro was not as good with the last storm as it has been with many of the recent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Prins, could you post the HR 24-36 RGEM maps if you get a chance? Would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The SREF mean seems to be further northwest than many of the models. Not only does the heavier precip extend further northwest, but so do the warmer temps. The 850mb freezing line is still pretty far northwest at 3am tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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