snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Wow, GFS skin temp at YYZ during the heaviest precip on Monday is just 0.9c. Have to keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 trending all frozen here, of course im sure it will end up keep trending right on S and E of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 trending all frozen here, of course im sure it will end up keep trending right on S and E of us I'd take heavy rain over a SE swing & miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 ...btw, cyclone, it's pretty amazing you've managed to get 21 inches of snow more than me this winter despite our relatively close proximity. Yeah this is the first season I can remember us having more snow than the Cedar Rapids area. We really cashed in on the early season clipper train that ran from MSP through here down to LAF. Of course the big blizzard helped too. If we can manage a few inches before the end of the season we have a shot at 60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 every run is getting colder. 18z now has snow on west side of michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Looks like some heavy snow around the Flint area in SE MI according to radar, although FNT is just reporting -SN 1SM. Flint, Bishop International Airport Lat: 42.98 Lon: -83.73 Elev: 766 Last Update on Feb 26, 5:53 pm EST Snow Freezing Fog 28 °F (-2 °C) Humidity: 92 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 29.89" (1013.4 mb) Dewpoint: 26 °F (-3 °C) Visibility: 0.50 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Time of year that the snow is melting as it hits the pavement, with air temps of 11F. Its accumulating in the shaded areas. Not much, just very fluffy. I've got some accumalation in parking lots and side streets here even with light rates.. Couple of crashes in the area as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Oh, I didn't realize there was a thread for this small event. I guess it is getting towards late season so this counts as something! Little wave of snow last night (about half an inch), and a good amount of snow today (over an inch already). Really good upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of the jet all day, and surprisingly the strongest upper-level divergence maxima is still approaching from the west. That explains the slow change of precip today from lone dendrites to aggregates, up to quarter sized now. Things might get most interesting before it shuts off in a couple hours, that's usually how these things work since surface frontogenesis will maximize near the interface of jet induced upper-level divergence/convergence due to differential temperature advection. Should be some good lifting throughout the entire column there with very cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Moderate snow now. Not quite stellar dendrites, but some type of decent sized plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Oh, I didn't realize there was a thread for this small event. I guess it is getting towards late season so this counts as something! Little wave of snow last night (about half an inch), and a good amount of snow today (over an inch already). Really good upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of the jet all day, and surprisingly the strongest upper-level divergence maxima is still approaching from the west. That explains the slow change of precip today from lone dendrites to aggregates, up to quarter sized now. Things might get most interesting before it shuts off in a couple hours, that's usually how these things work since surface frontogenesis will maximize near the interface of jet induced upper-level divergence/convergence due to differential temperature advection. Should be some good lifting throughout the entire column there with very cold temps. Technically this thread is for the Sunday-Monday system, but this round of snow is being aided partially by isentropic lift caused by WAA ahead of the main storm. Besides, it's not that busy to begin with, so I think it can handle some frontrunning snowfall obs/disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Technically this thread is for the Sunday-Monday system, but this round of snow is being aided partially by isentropic lift caused by WAA ahead of the main storm. Besides, it's not that busy to begin with, so I think it can handle some frontrunning snowfall obs/disc. Oh ok. Just to clarify a scientific term, technically the lift is non-isentropic in this case (and every other real world case) since there are diabatic processes occurring, such as latent heat release from precipitation formation, the sun, and ground friction/conduction. Though isentropic lift is what approximately occurs, it's still incorrect to just throw that term around. Stepping off my soap box now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Oh ok. Just to clarify a scientific term, technically the lift is non-isentropic in this case (and every other real world case) since there are diabatic processes occurring, such as latent heat release from precipitation formation, the sun, and ground friction/conduction. Though isentropic lift is what approximately occurs, it's still incorrect to just throw that term around. Stepping off my soap box now Interesting. I've seen mets use the term isentropic lift to describe the phenomenon of warm air lifting over a colder, denser air (layman's explanation), even as recently as the AFDs for the Friday storm. What term would you suggest to use in the alternative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Oh ok. Just to clarify a scientific term, technically the lift is non-isentropic in this case (and every other real world case) since there are diabatic processes occurring, such as latent heat release from precipitation formation, the sun, and ground friction/conduction. Though isentropic lift is what approximately occurs, it's still incorrect to just throw that term around. Stepping off my soap box now You better tell this to every office who used this term in their AFD for this event then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 You better tell this to every office who used this term in their AFD for this event then. MET STUDENT FIGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I would just use the term frontogenetic lifting, and mention the jet streak forcing too. Isentropic lift is simply a jargon word in the context it's used in AFDs, and jargon runs rampant in forecasting meteorology. No hit on them, jargon has been going on in science forever. Isentropic lift is a simple concept of air conserving entropy so it follows potential temperature lines, and is one of the first things you learn about in a meteorology program. There are alot of very important complications though that are significant enough not to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MET STUDENT FIGHT! Only on a weather forum!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 MET STUDENT FIGHT! He can divide by zero, so I automatically lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 He can divide by zero, so I automatically lose. I did it again last night with the help of a couple of 4lokos, woke up in a pile of jimmy john subs and freshman babes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I would just use the term frontogenetic lifting, and mention the jet streak forcing too. Isentropic lift is simply a jargon word in the context it's used in AFDs, and jargon runs rampant in forecasting meteorology. No hit on them, jargon has been going on in science forever. Isentropic lift is a simple concept of air conserving entropy so it follows potential temperature lines, and is one of the first things you learn about in a meteorology program. There are alot of very important complications though that are significant enough not to ignore. So I guess to present this in a laymen/cliff notes way, isentropic like is like sugar, and while many meteorologists like to consider the phenomenon "sugar" (isentropic lift), the phenomenom usually taking place is in fact a sugar substitute which while appear similar and serve the same purpose (to sweeten, or create widespread precipitation), they're completely different. Am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Frontogenetic/jet streak forcing looks like it's produce an inch of snow here so far. Don't take it personally badgerblizzard, but I'll probably continue to use the term "isentropic lift". I don't have the background knowledge to refute anything you've said, but it's just a nice concise term that most on this board understand. So from that standpoint, it has value. And if it's good enough for operational forecasters to use, it's good enough for me. I'm sure you'll publish a paper on it someday and then the term'll become obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 So I guess to present this in a laymen/cliff notes way, isentropic like is like sugar, and while many meteorologists like to consider the phenomenon "sugar" (isentropic lift), the phenomenom usually taking place is in fact a sugar substitute which while appear similar and serve the same purpose (to sweeten, or create widespread precipitation), they're completely different. Am I right? That is a way to say it I suppose. The simplest way I can put it us isentropic lift is a very broad and simplified process, v. reality which has significant differences based on other processes that should be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Frontogenetic/jet streak forcing looks like it's produce an inch of snow here so far. Don't take it personally badgerblizzard, but I'll probably continue to use the term "isentropic lift". I don't have the background knowledge to refute anything you've said, but it's just a nice concise term that most on this board understand. So from that standpoint, it has value. And if it's good enough for operational forecasters to use, it's good enough for me. I'm sure you'll publish a paper on it someday and then the term'll become obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 I did it again last night with the help of a couple of 4lokos, woke up in a pile of jimmy john subs and freshman babes. You mean your stock pile isn't gone yet? Didn't think you could conserve this long. Babes=pigs? Pics would help your cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol, that wasn't meant as a shot at him. I'm in academia. I've seen journal articles written on the most esoteric subject matters. Honestly, I'm sure those in the field of meteorology would be interested in his ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 You mean your stock pile isn't gone yet? Didn't think you could conserve this long. Babes=pigs? Pics would help your cause. They've got decaffinated 4loko now, and it's pretty good. I lost all my pictures from last night unfortunately in a horrendous beer explosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 They've got decaffinated 4loko now, and it's pretty good. I lost all my pictures from last night unfortunately in a horrendous beer explosion. The decaf version just doesn't pack the same punch. It also tastes nasty, but that was common to the original as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The 0z NAM appears to be coming in with a period fo FZRA for NW. Missouri, C/E. Iowa, NW. Illinois and S. Wisconsin tomorrow evening/night. Looks like it does turn to snow for many of the areas mentioned, especially C. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The 0z NAM appears to be coming in with a period fo FZRA for NW. Missouri, C/E. Iowa, NW. Illinois and S. Wisconsin tomorrow evening/night. Looks like it does turn to snow for many of the areas mentioned, especially C. Michigan. DBQ sounding for tomorrow evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Including what fell this morning, we're up to 1.5" for the day. Snowing at a rate of 1/3-1/2 inch/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 0z NAM has the sfc low at 996 along the KS/OK border while the 24hr RUC has it at 992mb northwest of Dalhart, TX at 0z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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