bluewave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Past analogs usually featured a -AO in February after a strong -AO event in Janaury. After the earlier record snowfall and positive 500 mb height anomalies,the blocking pattern has really flipped.This looks like it will be the biggest negative to positive AO change this time of year since 1959. 2011 so far 1959 Another big AO rise in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 there was a big flip in early March 1956 also...March 1959 was cold with above average snowfall in NYC...Snow in late March and the second week in April 1959... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 there was a big flip in early March 1956 also...March 1959 was cold with above average snowfall in NYC...Snow in late March and the second week in April 1959... I was actually just going to ask this-- so basically, the sharp AO rise is balanced out by an sharp AO fall, we just need to have it occur soon enough for it to matter. How much snow did we get in April 1959? Was it like what happened in April 1990 after a near heatwave in mid March? The March 1956 flip is illustrative of how quickly a pattern can turn in that volatile month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 my thoughts are that it had to end sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How much snow did we get in April 1959? OKX snowfall records for NYC show only 0.6" fell for the month of April in 1959, March 1959 had 6.7", FYI! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 my thoughts are that it had to end sometime. This is really the first significant rise that we are seeing since before the summer of 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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