caviman2201 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Mt. Holly's point forecast for Queenstown is calling for 3-5 tonight and we're not even under an advisory... odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z NAM screws NVA and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Notice the same a lot with Loudoun, Frederick, Howard and not that northern half of Montgomery. Would be nice to see something better than just counties. Also, couldn't agree more nice to see totals going up as we get close to a storm and not just because everyone is trying to be super conservative I guess something could be said for the Northern half of the warned counties seeing warning criteria and the southern half seeing advisory, but I think a few of you bring up a good point in how you relay that to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Mt. Holly's point forecast for Queenstown is calling for 3-5 tonight and we're not even under an advisory... odd... They are coming based on the latest AFD, maybe some warnings actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 not sure why 18z NAM is always dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I guess something could be said for the Northern half of the warned counties seeing warning criteria and the southern half seeing advisory, but I think a few of you bring up a good point in how you relay that to the public. It's just easier with severe weather because of how isolated it is and how fast moving it can be. With long duration events like winter weather it could be hairy. OT though so it's a topic for another thread I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z NAM screws NVA and DC It is farther north with its axis and drier to boot than the 12 or 06Z runs. Have to watch the radar closely. I wouldn't change the forecast yet based on one 18Z nam run. I do think its change does show how sensitive the event is to very slight changes in the location of the heavier precip relative to the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 15z SREF plumes look quite nice for BWI. Mean of 0.43" of snow QPF...but that is biased downward due to 4 outliers with total precip amounts <0.4". The bulk of the members fall in between 0.45-0.75" of snow QPF. Max is 0.77". DC and Sterling haven't loaded yet. http://nws.met.psu.edu/plumes/ 0c 850 line crosses south of us around hr 10/11... which is around 2z/3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It is farther north with its axis and drier to boot than the 12 or 06Z runs. Have to watch the radar closely. I wouldn't change the forecast yet based on one 18Z nam run. I do think its change does show how sensitive the event is to very slight changes in the location of the heavier precip relative to the cold air. SREF seems wet though. 18z NAM goes dry alot of times than comes back wetter on 00z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/15/images/sref_x24_024s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The sounding at my house location was colder than DC at 03Z and I'm ese of DC, more east than south. It's now 43 and starting to drop again. I'm only 200 yards from a wsw to my north and 2 miles from an advisory but because the county is so long and skinny, I'm in nothing. Its funny how AA county is a warning and PG and DC aren't. But I guess they have to draw the line somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Because of the 5" warning criteria LWX is now slightly more bullish than my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Its funny how AA county is a warning and PG and DC aren't. But I guess they have to draw the line somewhere. Randy, I think it's cause northern AA will see warning criteria snows. Since the NWS doesn't break up winter storm warnings into smaller areas like they do with severe weather, they have to put the entire county under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For my Eastern Shore brethren... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AMEST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE PHILADELPHIA AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE AND MUCH OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SLEET AT THE BEGINNING BUT IT WONT LAST LONG.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SPOTTY RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY LATE EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY.* SNOW FALL RATES...MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY PAVEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE DOWN TO 20 TO 25 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.* VISIBILITIES...AT TIMES NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 SREF seems wet though. 18z NAM goes dry alot of times than comes back wetter on 00z http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_024s.gif I wouldn't change the forecast based on it and would still go 2-4 but it does illustrate that for DC and even you that this is not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For the Mount Holly people. ------------------------------------------ 000 WWUS41 KPHI 212013 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM WILL RETURN SNOW AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO MUCH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TOMORROW MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. MELTING WILL BE SLOW TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ070-071- 221000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0007.110222T0000Z-110222T1400Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE PHILADELPHIA AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE AND MUCH OF MARYLAND'S EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SLEET AT THE BEGINNING BUT IT WONT LAST LONG. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SPOTTY RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY LATE EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY. * SNOW FALL RATES...MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY PAVEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE DOWN TO 20 TO 25 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AT TIMES NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Randy, I think it's cause northern AA will see warning criteria snows. Since the NWS doesn't break up winter storm warnings into smaller areas like they do with severe weather, they have to put the entire county under a warning. But then explain why Calvert doesn't even get a WWA out of this. I would think that N Calvert, PG and a couple others are still flirting with a 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It is farther north with its axis and drier to boot than the 12 or 06Z runs. Have to watch the radar closely. I wouldn't change the forecast yet based on one 18Z nam run. I do think its change does show how sensitive the event is to very slight changes in the location of the heavier precip relative to the cold air. My weenie sense is tingling and telling me that the radar returns look like they have a high screw potential by missing to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0c 850 line crosses south of us around hr 10/11... which is around 2z/3z The mean for snow at sterling is only .17 on the sref as so many members have lots of sleet due to a warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 But then explain why Calvert doesn't even get a WWA out of this. I would think that N Calvert, PG and a couple others are still flirting with a 3"+ I don't know Wes can come crash with me and he can be under a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice maps Scott, so you thinking sleet will be a factor in DC with that warm layer? Well it will sleet, but the question is how much. DC is pretty tricky, as Wes mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't know Wes can come crash with me and he can be under a WSW I can just walk 200 yards and getting into the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't know Wes can come crash with me and he can be under a WSW Just Wes? I was hoping for a slumber party. You, Randy, Ian are the girls and Dave, Wes, me are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I can just walk 200 yards and getting into the warning There ya go, just get a cheap hotel room for the night Just Wes? I was hoping for a slumber party. You, Randy, Ian are the girls and Dave, Wes, me are not. I'm looking forward to Ian's response wrt you calling him a girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Randy, I think it's cause northern AA will see warning criteria snows. Since the NWS doesn't break up winter storm warnings into smaller areas like they do with severe weather, they have to put the entire county under a warning. I understand, it just looks odd on a map. I actually think the northen and central part of the county will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My weenie sense is tingling and telling me that the radar returns look like they have a high screw potential by missing to the north. That's because of the weird axis of the front. You'll be okay, at least in Towson. Does seem to be taking its sweet time to move east right now, though. Still 36 and cloudy in Oakland, MD out near Wisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My weenie sense is tingling and telling me that the radar returns look like they have a high screw potential by missing to the north. You my friend are exactly right. Those South of the MD/PA border are in for a disappointment if they are expecting accumulating snow in the 4-8 range. Best bet 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well it will sleet, but the question is how much. DC is pretty tricky, as Wes mentioned. Dc has potential to bust badly depending on how long the sleet lasts. If the uvv is stronger like on the 12Z run, then dc gets more snow as the changeover probably would be quicker. Less UVV and you get the new nam and quite a few sref members. I'm not sure who well they would do with shallow cold air. I'd rather have higher resolution but now the nam has waffled, still cold at the surface but not as bullish with precip as the earlier version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You my friend are exactly right. Those South of the MD/PA border are in for a disappointment if they are expecting accumulating snow in the 4-8 range. Best bet 1-2 inches. Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just Wes? I was hoping for a slumber party. You, Randy, Ian are the girls and Dave, Wes, me are not. I guess its time we switch up. Last night, you were the girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You my friend are exactly right. Those South of the MD/PA border are in for a disappointment if they are expecting accumulating snow in the 4-8 range. Best bet 1-2 inches. That is some exquisite trolling. Props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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