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Feb 21/22 PDIII Junior Model/Forecast Discussion


WxUSAF

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There you go Ji

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

235 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

MDZ009>011-014-VAZ031-042-220345-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/

/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0004.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/

MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...

ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG

235 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...CHANGING TO SNOW

AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITHIN THIS RANGE...THE

HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE THIS

EVENING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW

WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED

BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S THIS EVENING...

DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

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Ask and ye shall receive Bawlmer:

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITHIN THIS RANGE...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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I asked specifically about MC and Howard, but it would only make since for Balt as well considering the other WFOs are including Cecil and a few Eastern shore counties.

Please read - LWX already said they would most likely upgrade some counties!

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I meant more aloft...critical thicknesses have a slight tilt and run wnw-ese. It looks like surface temps really crash towards 00z.

The sounding at my house location was colder than DC at 03Z and I'm ese of DC, more east than south. It's now 43 and starting to drop again. I'm only 200 yards from a wsw to my north and 2 miles from an advisory but because the county is so long and skinny, I'm in nothing.

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The sounding at my house location was colder than DC at 03Z and I'm ese of DC, more east than south. It's now 43 and starting to drop again. I'm only 200 yards from a wsw to my north and 2 miles from an advisory but because the county is so long and skinny, I'm in nothing.

It's kind of funny to see the warning next to nothing.

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Any of the mets know if the NWS is ever going to move towards polygon or threat based warnings for Winter weather instead of County based warnings? It looks kind of goofy to have MC, Howard, and AA in a warning, but North PG is under and advisory.

That would be an odd map. :lol:

Definitely could be useful but for public would probably be confusing. The public tends to be a bit dull.

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The sounding at my house location was colder than DC at 03Z and I'm ese of DC, more east than south. It's now 43 and starting to drop again. I'm only 200 yards from a wsw to my north and 2 miles from an advisory but because the county is so long and skinny, I'm in nothing.

since your a MET, cant you just give your area a Warning? Who would stop you?

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The sounding at my house location was colder than DC at 03Z and I'm ese of DC, more east than south. It's now 43 and starting to drop again. I'm only 200 yards from a wsw to my north and 2 miles from an advisory but because the county is so long and skinny, I'm in nothing.

Wow Wes you really are right on that border huh? My parents are 4 miles south of Dunkirk right off Rt 4. My brother's electrical company has a contract with a few parking lots in northern Calvert under which he has to send his trucks out to plow if it hits two inches. I haven't called him yet.....

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Any of the mets know if the NWS is ever going to move towards polygon or threat based warnings for Winter weather instead of County based warnings? It looks kind of goofy to have MC, Howard, and AA in a warning, but North PG is under and advisory.

Notice the same a lot with Loudoun, Frederick, Howard and not that northern half of Montgomery. Would be nice to see something better than just counties.

Also, couldn't agree more nice to see totals going up as we get close to a storm and not just because everyone is trying to be super conservative

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