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Feb 21/22 PDIII Junior Model/Forecast Discussion


WxUSAF

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Can someone give me advice? I have a class tonight from 7:20-10:00, should I skip it? I hate to be one of those "what will I get in my backyard" types, but with my medical issues I really don't want to take a chance.

I live in the Springfield/Franconia area and commute to Fairfax (GMU).

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how dare you question one of the finest met minds on this Board!

LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps.

I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area.

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LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps.

I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area.

You noticed that too, not sure whether the east colder will verify or not. Right now I'm holding at 45 or 46 and suspect the real cooling here won't be until the sun gets lower in the sky.

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LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps.

I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area.

Agreed 100%. This will be a fun verification :arrowhead:

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LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps.

I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area.

I assume by CITY you mean Baltimore City?

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http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p12_024l.gif -- NMM. 850s drop below 0 for us around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the NMM

http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p24_027m.gif -- ARW. 850s drop below 0 for us also around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the ARW.

Ridiculous qpf amounts out here in the mountains. If we can switch over to snow early we could get bombed. If not, then we'll need a boat.

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You noticed that too, not sure whether the east colder will verify or not. Right now I'm holding at 45 or 46 and suspect the real cooling here won't be until the sun gets lower in the sky.

I meant more aloft...critical thicknesses have a slight tilt and run wnw-ese. It looks like surface temps really crash towards 00z.

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Ridiculous qpf amounts out here in the mountains. If we can switch over to snow early we could get bombed. If not, then we'll need a boat.

I'd take those amounts with a large helping of salt in the mountains. Hires WRFs are notorious for having trouble in high terrain. Still...you should be higher than those of us out here.

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I know this is completely irrelevant but I think it's worth saying:

This is my last day in MD, I move to Seattle tomorrow. I'm being gifted with a snowstorm upon my departure.

More interestingly, it appears a rare Seattle snowstorm is in the makings for later this week...Wed night/ Thurs.

This winter is turning out to be almost as cool as last winter.

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Temps out at my cabin inHardy county have gone from 35 at midnight to 50.5 at 7 am back down to 34.6 at 10 am now back up to 49 at 2pm... talk about being on the boundary zone.!!

"cool" look at the temp contrast for anyone who has not looked at this map already.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_tmp_matl.gif

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LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning.

Yeah... LWX said as much in their 1pm update.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING WARNING /CRIT IS

5 IN/12 HRS/...LINE OF CLARKE...LOUDOUN...MONTGOMERY...HOWARD... SOUTHERN

BALTIMORE WOULD BE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR UPGRADE

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