CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO QPF(frozen only) JYO .42 IAD .41 DCA .41 BWI .45 FDK: .50 HGR .68 PHL .29 MRB .51 RIC .12 How do you know it's frozen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How do you know it's frozen?? how dare you question one of the finest met minds on this Board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 how dare you question one of the finest met minds on this Board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowguy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Can someone give me advice? I have a class tonight from 7:20-10:00, should I skip it? I hate to be one of those "what will I get in my backyard" types, but with my medical issues I really don't want to take a chance. I live in the Springfield/Franconia area and commute to Fairfax (GMU). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 how dare you question one of the finest met minds on this Board! LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps. I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BTW Wes, Ian, et al......nice blog you guys put forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro really backed off the QPF in past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps. I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area. You noticed that too, not sure whether the east colder will verify or not. Right now I'm holding at 45 or 46 and suspect the real cooling here won't be until the sun gets lower in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps. I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area. Agreed 100%. This will be a fun verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BTW Wes, Ian, et al......nice blog you guys put forth. Thanks, today was Jason's baby except for my quote and comments from Dan, Ian and I about Jason's initial map. Jason did a really nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL I wasn't trying to bust chops..I didn't know if he had the soundings or just going by 850 temps. I like 2-4 for the city for now. I think given the thermal profiles, this event may favor areas to the nnw-ne...even east of the area a little better. Kind of weird to have the atmosphere colder to the east, but that's the case. It's possible there could be a little more snow, but I see a bust potential on either side. There could also be a lot of sleet in the city. If that happens, we may not have much moisture left once the entire column cools. Tough forecast for the area. I assume by CITY you mean Baltimore City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I assume by CITY you mean Baltimore City? i think he means DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I took him to mean DC. I assume by CITY you mean Baltimore City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I took him to mean DC. Thanks Yoda, Usedtobe... as you can tell... wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I assume by CITY you mean Baltimore City? Yeah Scott means Dc, I dont think he knows where Baltimore is, LOL J/K scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p12_024l.gif -- NMM. 850s drop below 0 for us around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the NMM http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p24_027m.gif -- ARW. 850s drop below 0 for us also around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the ARW. Ridiculous qpf amounts out here in the mountains. If we can switch over to snow early we could get bombed. If not, then we'll need a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looking like Edgewood/Aberdeen area is a good place to be. North enough to get the cold air, not so far north to miss the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i think he means DC DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You noticed that too, not sure whether the east colder will verify or not. Right now I'm holding at 45 or 46 and suspect the real cooling here won't be until the sun gets lower in the sky. I meant more aloft...critical thicknesses have a slight tilt and run wnw-ese. It looks like surface temps really crash towards 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ridiculous qpf amounts out here in the mountains. If we can switch over to snow early we could get bombed. If not, then we'll need a boat. I'd take those amounts with a large helping of salt in the mountains. Hires WRFs are notorious for having trouble in high terrain. Still...you should be higher than those of us out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know this is completely irrelevant but I think it's worth saying: This is my last day in MD, I move to Seattle tomorrow. I'm being gifted with a snowstorm upon my departure. More interestingly, it appears a rare Seattle snowstorm is in the makings for later this week...Wed night/ Thurs. This winter is turning out to be almost as cool as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Temps out at my cabin inHardy county have gone from 35 at midnight to 50.5 at 7 am back down to 34.6 at 10 am now back up to 49 at 2pm... talk about being on the boundary zone.!! "cool" look at the temp contrast for anyone who has not looked at this map already. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_tmp_matl.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice maps Scott, so you thinking sleet will be a factor in DC with that warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning. With that I wouldn't be surprised to see S BAL as well soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning. That was an hour ago when they were talking about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning. But not Baltimore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 But not Baltimore?. The discussion that was posted earlier said that Southern Baltimore would likely be added as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore wasn't upgraded to a Warning by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX to upgrade Mont Co and Howard to Warning. Yeah... LWX said as much in their 1pm update. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING WARNING /CRIT IS5 IN/12 HRS/...LINE OF CLARKE...LOUDOUN...MONTGOMERY...HOWARD... SOUTHERN BALTIMORE WOULD BE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR UPGRADE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That was an hour ago when they were talking about that. DAVE Do something!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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