gymengineer Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the seasonal pattern of a particular area either getting hit hard or getting screwed means a lot don't believe me? take a look at NYC/NNJ 6" overnight into this morning It underperformed in many parts of NNJ.... nowhere in the NYC itself got close to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All this DT talk... gave me the inkling that I might find something fun in his blog. I was not disappointed. Thanks Ian et al for the good laugh. I'll reserve anything else for after the storm verifies. I'll just go ahead and put this here since it stands out in his blog: Link: http://www.wxrisk.co...d-to-calm-down/ "Two warm"? Well hell, we all know snows falls at "one warm" or lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Again FWIW... the UKIE QPF at 12 hrs has a slug of 0.5+ QPF in S OH/C WV/extreme N KY/ moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Again FWIW... the UKIE QPF at 12 hrs has a slug of 0.5+ QPF in S OH/C WV/extreme N KY/ moving east look at the radar...it's already happening...except nothing in n ky http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I see Facebook in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It underperformed in many parts of NNJ.... nowhere in the NYC itself got close to 6". NW NJ which is in the metro NY area had 4-8" of snow in a large area, and that is only 30-40 miles away from NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NW NJ which is in the metro NY area had 4-8" of snow in a large area, and that is only 30-40 miles away from NYC Right-- my point was that he made it sound like the city and the entire region over-performed again. They didn't.... north central NJ and the city itself were on the low end of the forecast, with parts of NJ that were under the WWA not verifying the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 thanks, i'm cleaning water off my comp screen Happy to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 DT says HGR "could see 3" " on FB They'll see 3"...as it is still snowing heavily on the way to 5-10" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Right-- my point was that he made it sound like the city and the entire region over-performed again. They didn't.... north central NJ and the city itself were on the low end of the forecast, with parts of NJ that were under the WWA not verifying the advisory. I agree they didnt over perform but what fell was right in the realm of what was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The cold front is sinking further south... Fredericksburg VA has dropped 13 degrees in the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX update their snowfall map as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here's the CWG take on the storm. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/02/icysnowy_night_ahead_timeline.html#more with a quote by me, 2-4 in the city, more to the north and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Talk about gradient... Winchester is in the upper 30s... CHO upper 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here's the CWG take on the storm. http://voices.washin...eline.html#more with a quote by me, 2-4 in the city, more to the north and northwest. could this be the son of March 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This should be in the obs thread...but FYI...surface winds are not steering winds. IOW, mid-level winds (700-300mb) direct the track of storms, not surface winds. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 could this be the son of March 1999? i've wondered that too .. i guess it's a more north version. plus i wasnt here in 1999 so i dont really know how it played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i've wondered that too .. i guess it's a more north version. plus i wasnt here in 1999 so i dont really know how it played out. From http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/va-winters.htm Other types of weather systems generally do not cause major problems for Virginia. Storms such as the "Alberta Clipper" (a fast moving storm from the Alberta, Canada region), or a cold front sweeping through from the west, generally do not bring more than 1 to 4 inches of snow in a narrow 50 to 60 mile-wide band. Sometimes, the high pressure and cold arctic air that follow in the wake of a "clipper" becomes the initial set up for the "nor'easter." In very rare cases, elements combine to produce very localized heavy snow without any fronts or storm centers nearby. These events are nearly impossible to forecast with any accuracy. One such event occurred in Northern Virginia on March 9, 1999. An unexpected 9 to 12 inches of snow fell in a very narrow band through a very heavily populated and well traveled corridor (Winchester to Middleburg to Fairfax to Alexandria). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hires WRFs seem to be fairly representative of the NAM and GFS (if you toss out those super-hi lollipops in the NMM). Between 0.4-0.7" of QPF for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro looks much like 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO QPF(frozen only) JYO .42 IAD .41 DCA .41 BWI .45 FDK: .50 HGR .68 PHL .29 MRB .51 RIC .12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hires WRFs seem to be fairly representative of the NAM and GFS (if you toss out those super-hi lollipops in the NMM). Between 0.4-0.7" of QPF for much of the area. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_024l.gif -- NMM. 850s drop below 0 for us around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the NMM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p24_027m.gif -- ARW. 850s drop below 0 for us also around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p12_024l.gif -- NMM. 850s drop below 0 for us around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the NMM http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p24_027m.gif -- ARW. 850s drop below 0 for us also around hr 14... hr 18 most of us are below -6c 850s on the ARW. ARW looks right on the money based on the other guidance. NMM looks high. The temps are more believable though and it's good they're colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Talk about gradient... Winchester is in the upper 30s... CHO upper 60s Yeah its crazy. I am 37 here. LWX moved my totals to 5-7. Pretty bullish IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 One more model run and then nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 One more model run and than nowcasting It's pretty much nowcasting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 commutageddon (lol) overperformed qpf'wise. time to nw arkansas this baby. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ARW looks right on the money based on the other guidance. NMM looks high. The temps are more believable though and it's good they're colder. Agree. 850s seems to be consistently between-5 to -7 on both of them for the event, which is nice. Barring any warm layers, are we still talking about SR's 10:1? Or are we a bit higher/lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 116 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KCHO...WHICH REACHED 70F AT 11:46AM...BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVED /IT WAS DOWN TO 53 AT THE 1PM OB/. NARROW SWATH OF RAIN AT THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY /A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT/ TRACKING SOUTH /LWX ONLY RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE/. SOME BROKEN CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA /BALT-WASH AND WEST/. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES WITH SFC LOW OVER SRN IL AND A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER SD. A STRONGER UPPER LOW IS OVER MAINE...WITH A 1030MB SFC HIGH OVER NRN ONTARIO. THIS SFC HIGH WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AS THE MIDWEST SFC LOW APPROACHES. MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP NOW OVER IN/OH...AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. THIS PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE COOLING LOW LEVELS IS WHAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...THEN SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH...PRECIP CHANGEOVER IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SLEET MIXING IN AROUND THE MASON-DIXON BY 6PM...THEN MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS...CUTTING OFF WARMER SUBTROPICAL FLOW...COOLING THE COLUMN TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. THIS CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL ALSO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FAR SRN PORTIONS LOOK TO ONLY MIX WITH SLEET LATE TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS RAISED FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND FREDERICK CO VA WITH AN ADVISORY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND BALT- WASH. ADVISORY WORDING HAS GENERIC 2-5 INCHES...WITH MORE EXPECTED NORTH THAN SOUTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING WARNING /CRIT IS 5 IN/12 HRS/...LINE OF CLARKE...LOUDOUN...MONTGOMERY...HOWARD... SOUTHERN BALTIMORE WOULD BE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR UPGRADE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's pretty much nowcasting now sometimes I'm not certain if my true fascination is with the models and not the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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