stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's a chance I might go to HGR today and play hooky from work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the 6 looked kinda like an 8.. sorry, know how critical accurate clown map deciphering is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A question that has a lot to do with impact, but hasn't been analyzed much yet: Is the GFS or NAM going to be closer with surface temps? As WxUSAF pointed out, there's a huge difference in surface temps between the two models at 0Z tonight, and that difference continues all the way through the night. The GFS verbatim already has teens (!) into the area by 1 am, and is likely too cold. But is the NAM too warm by a significant amount? Edited to add: I'm not implying anything about precip type-- just looking at how cold it's going to be overnight, which will have a large impact on road conditions, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's a chance I might go to HGR today and play hooky from work tomorrow. is it worth traveling to see 3 more inches all falling at night time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i guess we will never see a Miller A noreaster again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 is it worth traveling to see 3 more inches all falling at night time? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's a chance I might go to HGR today and play hooky from work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this looks interesting. Would look more interesting if it was cold http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_180.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the 6 looked kinda like an 8.. sorry, know how critical accurate clown map deciphering is. Even with the second 8 after it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Man, there is one whopping temp gradient across Virginia. Quick met question. Does this aid the precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's a chance I might go to HGR today and play hooky from work tomorrow. Invite Leesburg - we can all get together and do a little shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 /feb-22-pa-event-folks-in-dca-bwi-and-far-northern-va-need-to-calm-down/ His prediction: For DCA I would be surprised if they saw an 1" but from 495 N and W and N and E... and NORTH of I-66.... snow could accumulate 1-2" ...in NW VA about 3" ( west of Rte 15) FOR MARYLAND...6" by the PA Border and into Gettysburrg Harrisburrg York Janover Lancaster.... 3" in Frederick east to Cockeysville to Havre De Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Even with the second 8 after it? i must have missed that day in kindergarten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 WWA issued. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE... WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING... WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING... THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND CONTINUE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES... TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 And they are hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 WWA issued. BULL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 WWA: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND CONTINUE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 His prediction: For DCA I would be surprised if they saw an 1" but from 495 N and W and N and E... and NORTH of I-66.... snow could accumulate 1-2" ...in NW VA about 3" ( west of Rte 15) FOR MARYLAND...6" by the PA Border and into Gettysburrg Harrisburrg York Janover Lancaster.... 3" in Frederick east to Cockeysville to Havre De Grace Oh, that Davey Tolleris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1157 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 MDZ003>007-501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-220100- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0004.110222T0000Z-110222T1200Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 1157 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...THEN SNOW WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING... AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh, that Davey Tolleris! He needs to go hug his Elmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh, that Davey Tolleris! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 <br />WWA issued.<br /><br /><br /><br />2-5" for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW 12z UKIE At 12 hrs... IAD- DCA north are below 0c at the 850 level. Freezing line (aka 32 line) just about on top of that, perhaps a few more miles north. At 18 hrs... Freezing line (aka 32 line) SOUTH of EZF. I would argue BWI/IAD/DCA are in the upper 20s at this time. 850s are COLD, -5 to -7 at IAD/BWI/DCA/HGR/FDK At 24 hrs... 850s are bascially same... perhaps a few tenths of a degree colder. Freezing line (aka 32 line) down by KRIC... N VA/DC/MD in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 That's pretty reasonable by LWX. I think Clarke and Loudon counties in VA and Montogomery, Howard, S. Baltimore and Baltimore City could have been included in the warning...but I suppose they could wait for the 18 and 00z runs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BULL! chilllax Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW 12z UKIE At 12 hrs... IAD- DCA north are below 0c at the 850 level. Freezing line (aka 32 line) just about on top of that, perhaps a few more miles north. At 18 hrs... Freezing line (aka 32 line) SOUTH of EZF. I would argue BWI/IAD/DCA are in the upper 20s at this time. 850s are COLD, -5 to -7 at IAD/BWI/DCA/HGR/FDK At 24 hrs... 850s are bascially same... perhaps a few tenths of a degree colder. Freezing line (aka 32 line) down by KRIC... N VA/DC/MD in the 20s It's that 12-18hr period that's critical. Whether it's snow or sleet in that period depends on that warm layer around 800mb. I'd trust the NAM and GFS more then the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That's pretty reasonable by LWX. I think Clarke and Loudon counties in VA and Montogomery, Howard, S. Baltimore and Baltimore City could have been included in the warning...but I suppose they could wait for the 18 and 00z runs to change. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 He needs to go hug his Elmo thanks, i'm cleaning water off my comp screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All this DT talk... gave me the inkling that I might find something fun in his blog. I was not disappointed. Thanks Ian et al for the good laugh. I'll reserve anything else for after the storm verifies. I'll just go ahead and put this here since it stands out in his blog (posted just under 24 hours ago): We have a interesting situation developing with regard to the potential for some winter weather over portions of Pennsylvania and New Jersey and rumors… totally unfounded and irrational rumors …. that there some sort of significant snow coming for Northern Virginia and Maryland.At first I thought this sort of wretched winter weather forecasting was coming from the usual sources— Herny M of accu weather but it has brought to my attention that for some incomprehensible reason that THE WEATHER CHANNEL also talking about some sort of accumulating snow over far Northern Virginia and Maryland including the DC and Baltimore metro areas. That portion of the forecast… is crap. The real problem is that temperatures are way too warm for any sort of winter precipitation for any portion of the northwest VA as well as DCA / Baltimore metro areas or even as far north has the Pennsylvania Maryland border. Those areas are to warm at the surface …they are too warm in the Middle levels of atmosphere and they are two warm in the the upper levels of the atmosphere. Link: http://www.wxrisk.co...d-to-calm-down/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's that 12-18hr period that's critical. Whether it's snow or sleet in that period depends on that warm layer around 800mb. I'd trust the NAM and GFS more then the Ukie. True. I can't seem to get the precip map at 18. At 24... there is a large area of 0.175-0.25 QPF across the LWX area, which is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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