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Feb 21/22 PDIII Junior Model/Forecast Discussion


WxUSAF

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nice, there's like a 4" swing from DCA to northern DC.

Elevation lol

NAM JYO

15 02/22 03Z 31 28 45 11 0.14 0.00 543 552 -4.3 -17.0 1011 100 PL 000OVC348 0.0 0.8

18 02/22 06Z 26 25 38 12 0.22 0.00 540 551 -8.8 -16.5 1013 100 SN 000OVC363 2.1 0.4

21 02/22 09Z 24 23 38 11 0.23 0.00 537 548 -8.6 -17.6 1014 100 -SN 000OVC111 2.3 1.1

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My Map: Green is mostly rain, light blue is 1" or less, medium blue is 1-3", dark blue is 3-6", purple is 4-7" and pink is 5-9"...Timing, a light mix will start this evening after the rush hour, changing to snow between 9-11PM north to south..Ending by 9AM..Anticipate many school closings and delays

post-2017-0-44368000-1298306342.png

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My Map: Green is mostly rain, light blue is 1" or less, medium blue is 1-3", dark blue is 3-6", purple is 4-7" and pink is 5-9"...Timing, a light mix will start this evening after the rush hour, changing to snow between 9-11PM north to south..Ending by 9AM..Anticipate many school closings and delays

I'd definitely move the medium blue further north to include the immediate DC area.

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It shows 2.4 cm in 12 hours very near me. 2.54 cm is one inch. That seems quite good to me. Is there something I'm missing on that map?

It just looked like it was warmer/north to me--tho those maps are crappy. I seem to remember the 540 line further south etc in prior runs. It might not matter that much or at all, especially for your area.

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*** ALERT *** ALERT*** DT TO EAT CROW** based on ACTUAL data short term trends and 12z Model data SNOW will fall over MUCH of western central northern and Northeast MD.... overnight. The cold front is already MUCH further south then I thought...I did NOT expect to see a 20+ degree difference between Duless & fredericksburrg and in central MD temps are already down into Mid 30s..

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*** ALERT *** ALERT*** DT TO EAT CROW** based on ACTUAL data short term trends and 12z Model data SNOW will fall over MUCH of western central northern and Northeast MD.... overnight. The cold front is already MUCH further south then I thought...I did NOT expect to see a 20+ degree difference between Duless & fredericksburrg and in central MD temps are already down into Mid 30s..

/feb-22-pa-event-folks-in-dca-bwi-and-far-northern-va-need-to-calm-down/

:lol:

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It just looked like it was warmer/north to me--tho those maps are crappy. I seem to remember the 540 line further south etc in prior runs. It might not matter that much or at all, especially for your area.

I can't read them either, Ian. I just look at the precip amount, and then try to use other models and their temp maps.

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