Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS is useless at this time. it should be fine with the general setup. it might not be as good on temp profiles etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says mecs ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know about where that is. And you're right, the amounts around here are almost always substantially different (i.e., more) than DCA and even downtown DC. Most dramatic was Dec. 5 last year, I had 2.8" here where I'm at (saw maybe ~5 in Rockville when I was up there running errands that day)...but downtown DC had almost nothing when I was there the following day! Similarly, DCA got 17.8" from the Feb. 5-6 event, essentially everywhere else got over 20", including some reports in the District itself. Most dramatic I've seen was Dec 5, 2003 -- I got on the MARC Train in Germantown with 8" on the ground and snowing; got to Union Station DC to rain and wet ground only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's the fall line that is located right along I-95. That's the line that separates the coastal plain from the Piedmont. Yeah it's just cool to watch how that really is the boundary in so many cases. Very convenient Nailbiting at times around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Most dramatic I've seen was Dec 5, 2003 -- I got on the MARC Train in Germantown with 8" on the ground and snowing; got to Union Station DC to rain and wet ground only! That would have been a cool time lapse out the window of the train. Gonig from snow to no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The GFS is a SECS for DC, as long as it isn't too much sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone have the GFS QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS almost looks like warning criteria even down to DC. It's kinda hard to definitely say without looking at soundings though. MECS, No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For you maybe. I routinely verify better with Montgomery zone forecasts in snow events. And I'm just NW of 95 (I can drive to the MD 650/I-95 exit in about 5 minutes. I think my biggest problem has always been the Potomac River, its fookin crazy. I'm in Extreme WSW Bethesda/Cabin John/Glen Echo area, and temps aways seem to run a good 1-2 degrees warmer than just 5 miles to my NE, and it makes a difference. My snow totals are usually a good 1" lower than most areas around me. The topography between Booze Creek Park, and the Bannockburn Ridge/Potomac tends to increase W and NW winds in this area, at least I think so, as they always tend to over-perform from that Direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 it should be fine with the general setup. it might not be as good on temp profiles etc. I am nowhere near as exp as you are in this hobby, but I really cant see why the models would be any good right about now, outside of the RUC. System is knocking on our doorsteps and will be over in 16 hours or so. I just like to use radars and downstream obs by now. just my two cents though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone have the GFS QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 not all snow everywhere yoda. edit: you beat me to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS almost looks like warning criteria even down to DC. It's kinda hard to definitely say without looking at soundings though. MECS, More like down to EZF depending on soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's good to at least get some anecdotal verifications that I'm not crazy Although then there's the really out of the ordinary reports like Snow36 - he's like the Arctic circle there in snow/cold. LOL!! Well, I was probably crazy walking out on Jan. 26 to regularly take measurements and photos, as at one point a pine branch came crashing down mere feet from where I was (with a loud craaack)! But hey, all in the name of science, right! One of the many trees that got shredded that night, along with a Pepco-induced power outage for 48 hours. Did the same thing last year during the big storms, and got a lot of funny looks as I waded through the snow, camera and yardstick in hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 not all snow everywhere yoda. edit: you beat me to it... I never said MECS/SECS... just posted that map Want to see the soundings though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 gfs is almost a carbon copy of 12z with total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJB Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm in Damascus in northern montgomery county. 10 inches last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 gfs is almost a carbon copy of 12z with total qpf Do we have one of those snow map things yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah it's just cool to watch how that really is the boundary in so many cases. Very convenient Nailbiting at times around these parts. A couple hundred feet in elevation can really help when you most need it. My guess is that you got 2-4" on December 5, 2009. DCA got a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Most dramatic I've seen was Dec 5, 2003 -- I got on the MARC Train in Germantown with 8" on the ground and snowing; got to Union Station DC to rain and wet ground only! Yup, that one too. I wasn't in Silver Spring at that time but was on Capitol Hill. We got very little from that (think we ended up with an inch, maybe), and I remember areas to the northwest got a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sitting at 32 here with a little light sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Um.. Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Um.. Ian yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 329 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 VALID 00Z TUE FEB 22 2011 - 00Z FRI FEB 25 2011 DAY 1... MIDWEST TO MID ATLC... SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE STRONG THERMAL BNDRY OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL REACH EWD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE TUES. BATCH OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF THE BNDRY WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC MAINLY TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCD UPPER SYSTEM SHEARS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HVST SNOW AMTS ACROSS NRN MD AND SRN PA WITH ENOUGH QPF FOR AMTS UP TO 8 INCHES...AS MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. MODEL CRITICAL TEMPS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME FROM ERN OH TO NRN WV. SWD INTO DC/NRN VA...PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SLEET/SNOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I never said MECS/SECS... just posted that map Want to see the soundings though Of course it's not a MECS/SECS in dc. But areas just to the north, definitely SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z NAM JYO 6 02/22 00Z 36 29 46 12 0.01 0.00 546 554 3.8 -16.8 1009 100 -RA 011OVC330 0.0 5.3 9 02/22 03Z 29 26 42 12 0.08 0.00 544 553 -4.8 -17.3 1012 100 -PL 001OVC348 0.0 2.2 12 02/22 06Z 25 23 35 12 0.13 0.00 540 551 -8.5 -16.7 1014 100 SN 000OVC347 1.3 0.3 15 02/22 09Z 24 22 37 8 0.13 0.00 537 547 -8.0 -19.0 1013 100 -SN 000OVC105 1.3 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 man GFS came in really wet. Nearly .60 of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18Z GFS Soundings for DC proper 0Z 3Z 6Z 9Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I can't find much wrong with the 18z GFS at all. Too bad I won't get any sleep tonight. Oh well....lol This storm should put climo snow in sight before the end of winter......oh wait, wasn't winter cancelled about 10 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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