mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 In lieu of an observation thread relevant to this storm... ...sleeting in Odenton right now at 40 degrees. Yes - I'm sorry for the OT. How bad is it sleeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I've noticed that the 12Z NAM was warmer by a full three degrees this afternoon in comparison to actual temps. I think a lot of your qpf might not be wasted on RA or PL. i've got sleet in annapolis (already posted in obs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have a hunch 18z GFS probably comes in dry, although this is more nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yes - I'm sorry for the OT. How bad is it sleeting? Light...but it was all sleet, not a mix, from what I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have a hunch 18z GFS probably comes in dry, although this is more nowcasting time. Even the 1/26 storm dried up right before the storm, and we know how the QPF was on that storm Radar is looking really juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 In lieu of an observation thread relevant to this storm... ...sleeting in Odenton right now at 40 degrees. http://www.americanw...snowcastingetc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ok lets go back on topic the nam sucks Not for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My bad, I didn't realize the obs thread had been pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light...but it was all sleet, not a mix, from what I could tell. Great thanks - we should move this to the thread for observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have a hunch 18z GFS probably comes in dry, although this is more nowcasting time. i doubt it will be as dry as the nam -- it could come north a bit with the .50 area which is way south on 12z. the nam is probably a burp drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yep, Northern MoCo is nothing like Southern MoCo...usually I just go by the DCA advisory, and add on 1" in this case. For you maybe. I routinely verify better with Montgomery zone forecasts in snow events. And I'm just NW of 95 (I can drive to the MD 650/I-95 exit in about 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For you maybe. I routinely verify better with Montgomery zone forecasts in snow events. And I'm just NW of 95 (I can drive to the MD 650/I-95 exit in about 5 minutes. How much did you get from the psuhoffman storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ABC 7 updated - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ABC 7 updated - Seems like everyone's having a tough time agreeing on a gradient and cut-off orientation of the snow on the southern edge... at least LWX is on my side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Seems like everyone's having a tough time agreeing on a gradient and cut-off orientation of the snow on the southern edge... at least LWX is on my side everybody loves climo .. some wiggles have to be kinda random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We had a very short bit of sleet here as well I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 everybody loves climo .. some wiggles have to be kinda random I'm going to make a fake avatar named "climo" and troll these threads so bad... then next month I'll name a new one "sun angle" and do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For you maybe. I routinely verify better with Montgomery zone forecasts in snow events. And I'm just NW of 95 (I can drive to the MD 650/I-95 exit in about 5 minutes. How much did you get from the psuhoffman storm? For what it's worth, I also live in Silver Spring as Kmlwx does. However, I'm a little farther south, not far from E-W Hwy, Rock Creek Park, near the Silver Spring/Chevy Chase border, inside the beltway. I received 8.0" from the PSUHoffman storm. What he/she says about the Montgomery zone forecasts I find to be generally reasonable in this area of southern MoCo. No, it won't typically be as much snow as what they get farther north (large county!), but still, adding a little extra to the amount that they're calling for in DC itself seems to work out. At least, that's been the case for the two winters I've been in this area now; before that I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC and always got more than DCA received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For what it's worth, I also live in Silver Spring as Kmlwx does. However, I'm a little farther south, not far from E-W Hwy, Rock Creek Park, near the Silver Spring/Chevy Chase border, inside the beltway. I received 8.0" from the PSUHoffman storm. What he/she says about the Montgomery zone forecasts I find to be generally reasonable in this area of southern MoCo. No, it won't typically be as much snow as what they get farther north (large county!), but still, adding a little extra to the amount that they're calling for in DC itself seems to work out. At least, that's been the case for the two winters I've been in this area now; before that I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC and always got more than DCA received. Yeah I'm up near the intersection of Randolph and New Hampshire Ave and it can be drastically different than downtown DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For you maybe. I routinely verify better with Montgomery zone forecasts in snow events. And I'm just NW of 95 (I can drive to the MD 650/I-95 exit in about 5 minutes. Same here. I'm in Adelphi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS is soaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Same here. I'm in Adelphi. I remember in past years having storms where SE of 95 was predicted to have significantly less which used to bum me out and then I would verify closer to what they were calling for "N and W of 95" really is amazing how nature knows where 95 is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah I'm up near the intersection of Randolph and New Hampshire Ave and it can be drastically different than downtown DC. I know about where that is. And you're right, the amounts around here are almost always substantially different (i.e., more) than DCA and even downtown DC. Most dramatic was Dec. 5 last year, I had 2.8" here where I'm at (saw maybe ~5 in Rockville when I was up there running errands that day)...but downtown DC had almost nothing when I was there the following day! Similarly, DCA got 17.8" from the Feb. 5-6 event, essentially everywhere else got over 20", including some reports in the District itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know about where that is. And you're right, the amounts around here are almost always substantially different (i.e., more) than DCA and even downtown DC. Most dramatic was Dec. 5 last year, I had 2.8" here where I'm at (saw maybe ~5 in Rockville when I was up there running errands that day)...but downtown DC had almost nothing when I was there the following day! Similarly, DCA got 17.8" from the Feb. 5-6 event, essentially everywhere else got over 20", including some reports in the District itself. It's good to at least get some anecdotal verifications that I'm not crazy Although then there's the really out of the ordinary reports like Snow36 - he's like the Arctic circle there in snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For those keeping score at home, the GFS is not dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says damn the torpedos full speed ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS is useless at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For those keeping score at home, the GFS is not dry. the nam has continuity issues with qpf.. sref was .5"+ total qpf down thru and south of dc. the op burped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the nam has continuity issues with qpf.. sref was .5"+ total qpf down thru and south of dc. the op burped. Looks like 18z GFS agrees with the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I remember in past years having storms where SE of 95 was predicted to have significantly less which used to bum me out and then I would verify closer to what they were calling for "N and W of 95" really is amazing how nature knows where 95 is. It's the fall line that is located right along I-95. That's the line that separates the coastal plain from the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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