WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS rolling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 PDIII lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 PDIII lol I said PDIII Junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 PDIII lol you musta' missed mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS is colder, slightly wetter and totally rips philly north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Randy i am waiting for my apology . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That's because of the temperature in the warm layer, they are below freezing but are in the temp range where lots of riming typically is found. At 700 mb the temp is minus 1.1. Not that far from freezing. ratios are dependent on the temps where the snow is being formed not surface temps. Essentially bufkit is saying w're not going to see dendrites at that time and that the flakes might be rimed. Thanks Wes. What sort of temps should I be looking for in the warm layers to ensure a bit higher, aka 10 to 12:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12 Z GFS Colder, slightly further south and an hour or 2 slower. All good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From Wes (in the other thread): "It's pretty easy for enthusiasts (not you) to forecast heavy snow for each event that a model shows as having potential for heavy snow. It's tougher when you are making public forecast. I got killed after the boxer day non-storm and the CWG forecasts were the least bullish in the area. Now people are complaining about forecasts that haven't yet verified for this event when the models except for the Euro were not very bullish until the 00Z run." I want to emphasize the bolded parts....This happens every time there is a "threat" and it's more than a little annoying. It is really easy to second guess people when you are not held accountable for posting rants, IMBY whining, and complaints about LWX not doing what you think they should do. People need to realize that forecasters such as those at LWX are paid to do more than simply react to the latest model output. They are looking at and interpreting things in FAR greater detail. Of course they aren't going to get every storm right, but you should at least wait for events to unfold before discussing what they do (or did) right, wrong, too late, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks Wes. What sort of temps should I be looking for in the warm layers to ensure a bit higher, aka 10 to 12:1 ratios? Colder than minus 4 so you wouldn't have so much riming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12 Z GFS Colder, slightly further south and an hour or 2 slower. All good things. My totals, at least in terms of QPF, in Baltimore probably come in a bit on the lower side than the NAM, as I'm right on the .25/.5 line. DC and W looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Randy i am waiting for my apology . For what? You made that prediction when no model had it. of course if we were going on today's output I wouldn't have said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Based on 2m and 850mb temps, looks like the fairly small amount of precip that falls before 00z would be rain transitioning to sleet for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 For what? You made that prediction when no model had it. of course if we were going on today's output I wouldn't have said that. The EURO and the RGEM were both showing those amounts yesterday, but it is ok apologies are the hardest things to do and i could still be wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The EURO and the RGEM were both showing those amounts yesterday, but it is ok apologies are the hardest things to do and i could still be wrong . gotta love weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From Wes (in the other thread): "It's pretty easy for enthusiasts (not you) to forecast heavy snow for each event that a model shows as having potential for heavy snow. It's tougher when you are making public forecast. I got killed after the boxer day non-storm and the CWG forecasts were the least bullish in the area. Now people are complaining about forecasts that haven't yet verified for this event when the models except for the Euro were not very bullish until the 00Z run." I want to emphasize the bolded parts....This happens every time there is a "threat" and it's more than a little annoying. It is really easy to second guess people when you are not held accountable for posting rants, IMBY whining, and complaints about LWX not doing what you think they should do. People need to realize that forecasters such as those at LWX are paid to do more than simply react to the latest model output. They are looking at and interpreting things in FAR greater detail. Of course they aren't going to get every storm right, but you should at least wait for events to unfold before discussing what they do (or did) right, wrong, too late, etc. i also responded, we should try to keep the complaining about forecasts here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 gotta love weenies while ravensrule is a weenie.... i dont think his comments have been nuts. it's been a few days now that places a good bit north of D.C. and in elevation etc looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 while ravensrule is a weenie.... i dont think his comments have been nuts. it's been a few days now that places a good bit north of D.C. and in elevation etc looked pretty good. Weenie yes I didn't see his comments, it makes me laugh though that he is asking Randy to apologize... hahahaha ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The snowfall orientation on this map is the complete opposite of Ellinwoods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Weenie yes I didn't see his comments, it makes me laugh though that he is asking Randy to apologize... hahahaha ok. i think he was joking. snow is serious biz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i think he was joking. snow is serious biz! I have a feeling he wasn't joking And yes, snow is serious biz!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The EURO and the RGEM were both showing those amounts yesterday, but it is ok apologies are the hardest things to do and i could still be wrong . Ok dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From Wes (in the other thread): "It's pretty easy for enthusiasts (not you) to forecast heavy snow for each event that a model shows as having potential for heavy snow. It's tougher when you are making public forecast. I got killed after the boxer day non-storm and the CWG forecasts were the least bullish in the area. Now people are complaining about forecasts that haven't yet verified for this event when the models except for the Euro were not very bullish until the 00Z run." I want to emphasize the bolded parts....This happens every time there is a "threat" and it's more than a little annoying. It is really easy to second guess people when you are not held accountable for posting rants, IMBY whining, and complaints about LWX not doing what you think they should do. People need to realize that forecasters such as those at LWX are paid to do more than simply react to the latest model output. They are looking at and interpreting things in FAR greater detail. Of course they aren't going to get every storm right, but you should at least wait for events to unfold before discussing what they do (or did) right, wrong, too late, etc. I made this comment earlier. Agree 100%. Those who whine do not do this for a living. No responsibility at all. Always easier to criticize others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS forecast soundings for BWI imply drizzle around 21z today (warm and dry layer between 900-700mb). By 00z probably either a sleet sounding or freezing drizzle with surface temps around -5C but a warm layer between 800-875mb that gets up to 3.3C. Also fairly dry in that layer with a 4C dewpoint depression...hence the FZDZ. Still a warm nose of 1.2C at 3z but that could be overcome with heavy precip rates. 6z is well below freezing for the whole column. Pretty similar at DCA. Edit...NAM profile at BWI is completely sub-freezing (barely) at 3z and has temps above freezing at 00z (3C). Definitely a sleet profile at DCA at 3z. 8C difference between the GFS and NAM at 0z at the surface! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ok dude. Thank you, of course i was joking. People need to chill in this thread. Ian i admit i am the biggest weenie of them all , well JI and Jebman surpass me but im close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have a feeling he wasn't joking And yes, snow is serious biz!!! you doubted my 3" call at DCA last week. i am not talking to you again -- till we get less than 3" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thank you, of course i was joking. People need to chill in this thread. Ian i admit i am the biggest weenie of them all , well JI and Jebman surpass me but im close. we're all weenies... or we would not be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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