Winterson Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If the 12z nmm verifies nod gets rocked 6++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Overcast 39/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From the shenandoah valley when the front came through just a bit ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ji mentioned this storm could be son March 1999 over in the model thread. From http://www.erh.noaa..../va-winters.htm Other types of weather systems generally do not cause major problems for Virginia. Storms such as the "Alberta Clipper" (a fast moving storm from the Alberta, Canada region), or a cold front sweeping through from the west, generally do not bring more than 1 to 4 inches of snow in a narrow 50 to 60 mile-wide band. Sometimes, the high pressure and cold arctic air that follow in the wake of a "clipper" becomes the initial set up for the "nor'easter." In very rare cases, elements combine to produce very localized heavy snow without any fronts or storm centers nearby. These events are nearly impossible to forecast with any accuracy. One such event occurred in Northern Virginia on March 9, 1999. An unexpected 9 to 12 inches of snow fell in a very narrow band through a very heavily populated and well traveled corridor (Winchester to Middleburg to Fairfax to Alexandria). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 regardless of temps xx below guidance today the fact that the cold front went through pretty darn early is a good sign for wintry weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 regardless of temps xx below guidance today the fact that the cold front went through pretty darn early is a good sign for wintry weather lovers. Can you explain why it's good? Besides the obvious, ie. temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Can you explain why it's good? Besides the obvious, ie. temps. well it's mostly the obvious. maybe it means 850s cool quicker than modeled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 well it's mostly the obvious. maybe it means 850s cool quicker than modeled as well? Besides the most obvious... I didn't know if there was more. I have no idea about 850s cooling quicker, hence me asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Warning now for my area. 5-7 Forecast. Still amazes me after 73 degrees 3 days ago. Should help with the sting of this horrid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 that really is a nice radar Ian be sure to save that bad boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 that really is a nice radar Ian be sure to save that bad boy Awesome how you can see the front drop through NOVA into central VA on that GIF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 37 reisterstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Should help with the sting of this horrid winter. Not sure what your climo snowfall is, but if this storm verifies for MBY (3-6"), that gets me just under seasonal climo (~24"). Combined with 2 months below normal temp wise, and I'd give this winter a solid B. Hell...thunder sleet alone might make it a B+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not sure what your climo snowfall is, but if this storm verifies for MBY (3-6"), that gets me just under seasonal climo (~24"). Combined with 2 months below normal temp wise, and I'd give this winter a solid B. Hell...thunder sleet alone might make it a B+. as of right now, I'd give this winter a B for bogus if this verifies, well...I'll let you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You could probably do a very rough back-of-the-envelope calculation: Say this storm is affecting 20,000 km^2...snow falls at...oh...10 snowflakes per m^2 per second. Storm lasts 6 hours. That's about 4*10^15 snowflakes...that's 4 quadrillion Well, if we are gonna go there....I've often thought about the enormous energy involved in lifting/suspending these quantities of water thousands of feet above the ground. Last year, as I shoveled the snow after Feb 5, and marveled at the weight of one shovel full, I just kept thinking this. One inch per hour snowfall would require a volume of 1/40 of a meter cubed (one inch being about 1/40 of a meter). That would be a volume of about 25 liters, or 1/40 the volume of a meter cubed (1000 liters). If one flake is a cm square, and one mm thick, it has a volume of 1/10 of a ml. 10 flakes would be required to give a ml of snow. 25 liters is 25 times 1000 ml or 25000 ml. This would be 250000 flakes in one hour, or about 70 flakes per second. More if the flakes were smaller. So multiply your total by 7, or about 28 quadrillion. But what's a few quadrillion flakes among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You can clearly see where the front is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well, if we are gonna go there....I've often thought about the enormous energy involved in lifting/suspending these quantities of water thousands of feet above the ground. Last year, as I shoveled the snow after Feb 5, and marveled at the weight of one shovel full, I just kept thinking this. You can think of it potential energy terms: 20,000km^2 with a liquid equivalent of 1cm over that entire area is 2*10^8 m^2 of water. Water has a density of 1000kg/m^3...so that's 2*10^11 kg. PE = mass * gravitational acceleration * height... Assume an average height of 500m and you get...about 10^15 Joules. 1 quadrillion Joules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Warning now for my area. 5-7 Forecast. Still amazes me after 73 degrees 3 days ago. Should help with the sting of this horrid winter. This winter pales in comparison to how bad 08-09 was. That was an awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You can think of it potential energy terms: 20,000km^2 with a liquid equivalent of 1cm over that entire area is 2*10^8 m^2 of water. Water has a density of 1000kg/m^3...so that's 2*10^11 kg. PE = mass * gravitational acceleration * height... Assume an average height of 500m and you get...about 10^15 Joules. 1 quadrillion Joules. Awesome. Hey, look at my post again. I edited it after you saw it. See what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You can clearly see where the front is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Been stuck at 41 degrees for a few hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Been stuck at 41 degrees for a few hrs now. storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 storm cancel? Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 41.5/36.....down from a high before 10am of 58.7. Much higher and thinner overcast now. During the push of cold this morning, I left Woodbridge, right around where the Potomac Nats play (Prince Wm Pky and Old Bridge Rd) and it was 48 on the car thermo. About 1 mile north at Hoadly Rd the temp plummeted down to 41 with the shower and was jumping between 41 and 39 all the way up to Herndon. On the way back, nearly steady from Herndon to my house. Between 40-42 as things have leveled off. Pretty cool little push. So the nearly 60 progged high temp did verify for us folks down here and certainly down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 it was suppose to be 64 right now so i felt like we have cheated our way through 21 degrees already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You can clearly see where the front is Hey, I asked this earlier, but maybe nobody saw it. Does a strong temp gradient like this aid in the amount of precip? Anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 37.1 here in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ji you are in Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 235 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 MDZ009>011-014-VAZ031-042-220345- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0004.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/ MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CLARKE-LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG 235 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITHIN THIS RANGE...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES. * TIMING...WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Does a strong temp gradient like this aid in the amount of precip? Anybody? Not per se. Frontogenic forcing is a factor people often look at for ID'ing the heaviest precip bands and strengthening storms, etc. Here's a quote from a storm summary from an AZ WFO... Areas of frontogenesis typically lead to more intense precipitation rates due to enhanced secondary circulations that are not handled well by numerical models. This means that forecasters need to identify areas of frontogenesis to anticipate the potential for banded precipitation, along with the associated intense precipitation rates and accumulations, which will not be shown by numerical model solutions. www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/talite0437.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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