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Feb 21-22 Snow/Sleet Storm Obs/Nowcasting/Weenie/Panic/Hallucinations


Ji

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we got more from the Dec 19,2009 storm that this entire winter. What a freaking nightmare bad winters are in this area. I hate me for loving snow

Well OK I'll bite. The Jan. 30, 2010 event, which was a lot less than the Dec. 19 storm, was close to what we got all of this winter...and the combined amount from the two "smaller" snows on Jan. 30 and Feb. 2-3, 2010 was about the same total as this year! At least at DCA, that is.:arrowhead:

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Whoops. Had a post written up right after I got home this morning talking about my adventure, but I must have fallen asleep before 'post' button was pressed....LOL..Yeah staying up all night to get some imagery left me pretty tired.

Here is a kinda poor shot from the JPG of the new 7D. I didn't realize the RAW files on the 7D are not compatible with CS4. I guess I have to purchase Lightroom 3 for sure now.

post-86-0-15409000-1298408879.jpg

So much more for me to learn on that camera.

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Whoops. Had a post written up right after I got home this morning talking about my adventure, but I must have fallen asleep before 'post' button was pressed....LOL..Yeah staying up all night to get some imagery left me pretty tired.

You should really make that watermark bigger.. that photo is theft material if I've ever seen one.

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probably, yet dc could be done.. mod/strong nina has a good signal till about mid march even here tho

Last night was one strange winter event. We got the precip. I had somewhere around 1.5 to 2 inches, but that was mostly sleet. The upper levels obviously let me down at some level. The sleet was fierce at times. I feel like we could have made it to 4 inches or so had the changeover happened earlier. What I wonder is... what caused that warm layer? I remember looking at the models, and especially the SREFS, and almost every one of those showed a "bump" in the 850 line just to my west. That concerned me, but because it was always modeled that the 850 line would be to my south, I didn't worry about it. And then, as the surface temp dropped fast, I thought it would be just a matter of time. From time to time we would get some large snowflakes, but then we'd go right back to sleet. It finally did change to snow at some point after I gave up and went to bed, and I guess it snowed about an inch, maybe a little less. Frederick MD, almost on the same lat line as me, looks to have had much more snow than I got. I guess it's just one more thing to worry about next threat. One more way to get screwed.

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Last night was one strange winter event. We got the precip. I had somewhere around 1.5 to 2 inches, but that was mostly sleet. The upper levels obviously let me down at some level. The sleet was fierce at times. I feel like we could have made it to 4 inches or so had the changeover happened earlier. What I wonder is... what caused that warm layer? I remember looking at the models, and especially the SREFS, and almost every one of those showed a "bump" in the 850 line just to my west. That concerned me, but because it was always modeled that the 850 line would be to my south, I didn't worry about it. And then, as the surface temp dropped fast, I thought it would be just a matter of time. From time to time we would get some large snowflakes, but then we'd go right back to sleet. It finally did change to snow at some point after I gave up and went to bed, and I guess it snowed about an inch, maybe a little less. Frederick MD, almost on the same lat line as me, looks to have had much more snow than I got. I guess it's just one more thing to worry about next threat. One more way to get screwed.

I dunno why exactly but it was noted the low was a bit stronger than forecast which makes me think it was able to inject some more warmth in at levels... then there's the fact that we never really got into sustained good lift (your random big flakes then back to sleet) south of a certain line so we did not get that to help us out in cooling either. It's always perilous being "on the edge" and in reality the D.C. area at least was very much there in pretty much all runs of every model over recent days. I was fooled into thinking the cold front arriving earlier was good news and while I guess it helped surfaces freeze quicker it certainly did not indicate anything above. The number of events where it is cooling (starts as rain/turns to sleet/snow) seems somewhat minimal around here (perhaps more in elevation -- you and nw)... so there's another reason to be skeptical I suppose in the future. There were impressive changes in temps over a short difference but we were not really tapping into very strong cold air either and it came in at a weird angle.. cad'esque I guess, but it seems east of the apps that places east did better than those west .

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Another Harford County jackpot...can't fight that seasonal trend. Chuck (and others)...what's your total on the year? Got to be up close to 30"...

Ellinwood...props to you on your heaviest snow axis orientation...Northern VA did get screwed :arrowhead:

I'm at 26" on the year now. To date that's about average here (31" is my DJFM mean).

La Nina's are known for big N/S snow gradients, although the overall Winter pattern hasn't been a typical Nina by any means.

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I dunno why exactly but it was noted the low was a bit stronger than forecast which makes me think it was able to inject some more warmth in at levels... then there's the fact that we never really got into sustained good lift (your random big flakes then back to sleet) south of a certain line so we did not get that to help us out in cooling either. It's always perilous being "on the edge" and in reality the D.C. area at least was very much there in pretty much all runs of every model over recent days. I was fooled into thinking the cold front arriving earlier was good news and while I guess it helped surfaces freeze quicker it certainly did not indicate anything above. The number of events where it is cooling (starts as rain/turns to sleet/snow) seems somewhat minimal around here (perhaps more in elevation -- you and nw)... so there's another reason to be skeptical I suppose in the future. There were impressive changes in temps over a short difference but we were not really tapping into very strong cold air either and it came in at a weird angle.. cad'esque I guess, but it seems east of the apps that places east did better than those west .

this storm was very odd. I was surprised to hear about all the sleet and going back and forth between snow and sleet for places west. Here on the interior upper Delmarva, it began as sleet with temps about 37 and continued sleeting for a couple hours until the temp dropped to 30. After that, around 10:30 or 11pm, it was all snow and stayed snow. the intensity varied from light to moderate to heavy at times with temps in the upper 20s. ended up with a bit over 3 inches. I think the NAM did pretty well with this storm. Just strange because normally if there is a persistent warm layer and sleet it would occur here more likely rather than points west.

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What do you have 30" since you got there, bastard :P .

Yeah, something like that. That in addition to the 64" in the previous 48 hours. Just sick. Storm starting Wednesday evening should be it's equal. I'm wondering if I'll be able to fly out this weekend. There are worse places to be snowed in than Tahoe...

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I'm at 26" on the year now. To date that's about average here (31" is my DJFM mean).

La Nina's are known for big N/S snow gradients, although the overall Winter pattern hasn't been a typical Nina by any means.

I am at about 31" for the season just on the other side of the Mason Dixon Line. A few miles and few degrees makes all the difference. Just about a week ago as soon as you crossed the MD line on I-83 the snow pack would disappear, but on the other side of the welcome to PA sign it looked like the frozen tundra. The gradient from York County PA to Baltimore City which is just under 30 miles was pretty sick. It's like you drive through 3 climates all in 30 minutes.

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I am at about 31" for the season just on the other side of the Mason Dixon Line. A few miles and few degrees makes all the difference. Just about a week ago as soon as you crossed the MD line on I-83 the snow pack would disappear, but on the other side of the welcome to PA sign it looked like the frozen tundra. The gradient from York County PA to Baltimore City which is just under 30 miles was pretty sick. It's like you drive through 3 climates all in 30 minutes.

Yes.. Having traveled the area you describe a lot, this Winter has constantly had one of the strongest gradients in snowpack I've ever seen. Really cool stuff.

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We've had 7 days with snow pack on the ground this winter: 5 days after the Jan 26 storm before it all melted, and 2 days after the massive 2-incher on Dec 16, before it all blew/sublimated and melted away. My sister lives in Bel Air, and they've had snow cover for half the winter. On the coastal plain no less. Snow on the DelMarVa lastnight while we had sleet. This winter just doesn't make sense.

Yes.. Having traveled the area you describe a lot, this Winter has constantly had one of the strongest gradients in snowpack I've ever seen. Really cool stuff.

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Yeah, something like that. That in addition to the 64" in the previous 48 hours. Just sick. Storm starting Wednesday evening should be it's equal. I'm wondering if I'll be able to fly out this weekend. There are worse places to be snowed in than Tahoe...

If i could get a job there for 4 months i would buy a winter home there and be in heaven, enjoy the rest of your trip and have a safe trip home.

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We've had 7 days with snow pack on the ground this winter: 5 days after the Jan 26 storm before it all melted, and 2 days after the massive 2-incher on Dec 16, before it all blew/sublimated and melted away. My sister lives in Bel Air, and they've had snow cover for half the winter. On the coastal plain no less. Snow on the DelMarVa lastnight while we had sleet. This winter just doesn't make sense.

That is amazing. You guys on the southern end (of Fred. Co) have been very unlucky. I live up in the northern end, near the WV border, and last night put me at 20.5 I think. I'll have to round up the numbers to be sure. But, concerning the snow cover, that's even more amazing. The Jan 26 snow did not melt up here until Feb 13. That was 19 days just from that one storm. And it happened quickly too. We went from about 80% cover on Sat. Feb 12 to none on the evening of the 13th. I had to take my dog to the vet in Stephens City on the 9th and I was shocked to see the snow just disappear a few miles north of there. Also interesting, I drove up to a place called the Hicksville Planing Mill just a few miles west and north a little of Hagerstown on Feb 12, and while I still had about an inch in my yard, they still had a solid 4-6 inch snow pack. Just amazing the difference up there. And from the looks of it, they hit the jackpot up that way again last night.

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27 in DCA, -4 in York.

Wow.

To be fair, Lancaster is 12 and Harrisburg is at 15. I suspect that York proper is in that same range, but their official reading over in Thomasville is always one of the lowest in the state on clear, calm nights with fresh snow cover. It cools like no one's business in that little valley over there.

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A few years ago, I compared data from several nearby sites and estimated an average. The data I don't have off hand but the number is close to reality. It was lower prior to last Winter.

How many years does that average cover? Does 09-10 skew it significantly? I grew up in Bel Air and always assumed it was about 24". That was closer to that old climo snowfall map that LWX had up on their website many years ago (and maybe still do).

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How many years does that average cover? Does 09-10 skew it significantly? I grew up in Bel Air and always assumed it was about 24". That was closer to that old climo snowfall map that LWX had up on their website many years ago (and maybe still do).

He lives about 10 miles northwest of Bel Air, and of course that is enough to make a significant difference in snowfall climo.

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